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According to Russian media reports, Putin recently inspected the command of the front line, and General Staff Chief Glazimov the outcome of the battle, mentioning that "10,000 Ukrainian soldiers were besieged."
Putin ordered the Russian army on the spot to ensure that Ukraine soldiers could surrender safely. If a supervisory team behind the Ukrainian army fired, the Russian army must do its best to protect these surrenders. At the same time, according to Russian predictions, The next war season, that is, the wave of Russian offensive at the end of the winter and early spring, may be to launch a general offensive, this three-year consumption war, may really be to see.
Around the Circle of Death: Why did the Ukrainian army become the “Crow in the Middle”?
Let's first take a look at the situation on the Russia-Ukraine front line. According to Gerasimov's report, the Russian army has successfully captured 70% of Volchansk and tore up six settlements in Zaporizhzhia. The most eye-catching thing is that in the direction of Krasnoarmesk and Kupyansk in Donetsk Oblast, the Russian army surrounded more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops.The Ukrainian army now seemed to be loaded in two iron barrels: one in the Red Army city-Milnogorsk, and one in Kupjansk.
Why did the Ukrainian army lose so badly? Three fatal wounds:
Logistics has completely collapsed.Mirnograd's last supply line has long been covered by Russian firepower. Videos posted on the Internet showed that Ukrainian armored convoys were being used as a living target on the road.
After the loss of Roginsky in the north of the Red Army city, the Russians were less than 1 km from the Ukrainian supply line, simply hanging the hangar to the neck. More absurdly, the 154th Ukrainian brigade in Kupyansk was forced to escape with plastic bottles to cross the river with a cane – what is modern war?
Second, the interior of the Ukrainian army is about to explode.The General Staff of Ukraine ordered "to stick to the end," but the frontline troops did not buy it at all Many soldiers retreat spontaneously, and the contradictions between officers and soldiers become public.Nowadays, the tide of deserters in Ukraine is intensifying, and the troops are so exhausted that it is necessary to capture strong men to fill the line. There are even reports that soldiers use their mobile phones to broadcast the surrender process live.
Third, the Russian military tactically surrendered.The Russian army is playing "pulse propulsion" this year: Instead of pursuing pressing the entire line, we concentrated our troops to cut off the hub.In the Battle of Kupyansk, the Russian army seized the village of Kurilovka in lightning, directly threatening the flank of the Ukrainian army's industrial zone; In the direction of the Red Army City, artillery fire was used to control the road, forcing the Ukrainian army to shoulder the shortage of food and ammunition. This style of play is low-cost and quick-effective. The Ukrainian army can defend the east but not the west.
What is Putin’s “only down-to-kill” operation?
Now let's talk about Putin's order, requiring Russian troops to ensure the safe surrender of Ukrainian troops. On the surface, this seems to show Russia's "kindness", but the author thinks it is not that simple.
Now what is the situation of the Ukrainian soldiers, surrounded on the front line, supplies broken, morality low, and behind there are guards with guns pointing, not surrender is a dead way. Surrender will survive, resistance will only lead to death in vain. This move directly disrupts the fighting will of the Ukrainian army and is more effective than bombs.
But why did Putin choose to do it at this time? because Russia's air conditioning was sufficient.Grasimov reports that the "Haiyan" nuclear-powered cruise missile test was successful, which flew 14,000 kilometers, lasted 15 hours, and "not yet the limit." Both Ukraine and the United States have to admit that Russia’s current negotiating code has doubled.
The U.S. side has been informed, and Putin passed on his position through the Special Representative: only a constructive dialogue can yield results.Translated into white, it means: Russia now holds the throne card and negotiates? yes, but it has to be according to my rules.
But it’s also a double-edged sword.Russia, with nuclear deterrence, can suppress its opponent in the short term, but in the long term it may exacerbate the confrontation.Will Ukraine take the risk of being forced to the corner of the wall?
Therefore, "Haiyan" is not so much an actual combat tool as a psychological warfare weapon. It allows Russia to firmly grasp the initiative before the next combat season.
More deeply, Putin is paving the way for the next war season. The Russian army listed Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as its own territory, but Donetsk has not completely eaten it.Pokrovsk (Red Army City) has become the focus. Once the Russian army takes it, it will be able to attack Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and force the Ukrainian army to withdraw troops from Kursk and Sumy, and the whole situation will have to tilt.
Putin's calculation is: through military pressure, let Ukraine confess at the negotiating table, deliver Donbass. If Ukraine does not, then continue to fight, and then the conditions are harder, after all, Russia has shed blood again, and will definitely double back.
Behind this strategy is Russia's precise handling of Ukraine's infinite loop. The more Ukraine fights, the greater the losses and the worse the conditions; But to abandon Donbass directly, domestic politics does not allow it. The result is to bite the bullet and consume resources until they bottom out. Putin's "only surrender but not kill" order is just a catalyst to accelerate this cycle.
The Ukrainian army's trouble, I must emphasize, was not caused by one or two defeats, but by the bitter fruit of years of consuming wars.The Russia-Ukraine front is thousands of kilometers away. The Ukrainian army originally relied on Western aid to support the situation, but what now? The collapse of drone defense lines, the depletion of troops, and the intensification of deserters are all manifestations of systemic problems.
Now looking back at the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk is the self-destruction of the Great Wall. That political show consumed the Ukrainian army's elite mechanized forces, but failed to gain strategic benefits.After the Russian army counterattacked, it not only cleared the field in Kursk, but also created a 50-square-kilometer buffer zone in Sumy Oblast.
The Ukrainian army paid a terrible price for this, but dispersed the resources that could be used for defense. It was like chess, one step wrong, one step wrong. Today, the Russian army has completed the siege in Kupyansk, and the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army is a problem.
Should Russia win the next war season?
The next combat season in late winter and early spring is regarded by many analyses as a decisive moment. The Russian army is likely to exert forces from two directions at the same time: in the north, aiming at the Kupyansk-Hongliman line, with a clear goal, tearing open the defense line on the northern flank of Donbas and surrounding Kramatorsk, and in the south, advancing along Pokrovsk-Guraipolje, heading straight for the Dnieper River.
Once these two roads advance smoothly, the Ukrainian army may be forced to retreat across the entire line and retreat to the Dnieper River defense line. That would be the largest retreat since the beginning of the war, which would mean that Donbas would be basically gone.
Does all of Ukraine have a chance?
First, although the Ukrainian army is miserable, it has not yet collapsed.Ukrainian enemy back forces frequent attacks in the Russian occupation area, if they can drag the Russian army into the security dungeon, can fight for time. but the reality is, the Russian army has built three layers of defense works in Helsinki and other places, the Utah last exploded bridge operation, in exchange for only the Russian army stricter control.
Second, the aid from the U.S. West has not been completely cut down so far, and it is still zero-star.If the drums can be restored before next spring, or if the Russian advance shows a breakthrough, the Ukrainian army may be able to counter-attack.
However, based on the current situation, I prefer Russia to win. Why? Because Ukraine has an endless cycle: the losses are huge and the conditions are more stringent; it is impossible to give up Donbas.
But I do not say death, because war is always accidental.But from the current situation, the Russian army has nuclear weapons, has the advantage of the battlefield, and time is on their side.