Preliminary

The recent move in Myanmar is a little meaningful. Just helping China to do a ¡°big deal¡± issue, turned to send high officials to visit and directly put forward a clear demand ¨C I hope China increases its energy investment in Burma. The move is both smart and a bit gambling. Want to rely on one ¡°expressive action¡± in exchange for a real economic blood transfusion. But the question is, will China buy the bill?

Minogue¡¯s bottom, from a ¡°hard battle¡±

In the past few years, there has been a troublesome "cancer" on the China-Myanmar border-the telecom fraud park. China has stated many times that it hopes that Myanmar will crack down on hard work, but the place is intertwined, with both local armed forces and black interest chains. Whoever moves will lose his head. Min Aung Lai had never dared to do anything heavy before.

But recently, he really moved. Starting in mid-October, the Burmese military launched mass cleansing, airstrikes, ground raids, armored vehicles, special forces all over the infamous K.K. park. According to Burmese reports, hundreds of fraudulent buildings in the park were seized, more than two thousand people were arrested, along with star-chain equipment used to make cross-border communications seized.

This series of actions has made China see its attitude-this time it's not lip service, but real action. Min Aung Hlaing is tantamount to helping China "pull out a thorn" and showing sincerity.

It was precisely because of this "solid" cleanup that Myanmar felt it was their turn to "propose conditions." Therefore, Min Aung Lai sent Energy Minister Wu Geelun to visit China. The itinerary was clear: first, he went to Yulin, Shaanxi Province to inspect the mining technology of China's old oil fields, and then went to Beijing to discuss cooperation with senior officials of energy companies such as PetroChina and CNOOC. The purpose is very direct-I hope that China can step in to help them revitalize the domestic energy industry. From Myanmar's perspective, they have already handed in "homework" to China, and now it is China's turn to "return the favor."

Myanmar's calculator: want to extend life on China's "blood transfusion"

In recent years, Myanmar's energy situation can be said to be a mess. Western sanctions continue, and veteran energy giants such as French company Total and American company Chevron have withdrawn. The projects left behind are either suspended or half-dead.

Apparently rich in resources, in fact a lot of problems. First, Myanmar has oil, but can not be refined. China Myanmar oil and gas pipelines provide them with a lot of crude oil quotas each year, but domestic refineries can not be old, equipment last century, refining rate is poor.

Secondly, old oil fields can¡¯t survive. Oil fields such as Yunnangon, Zadar, Maguire, many of which were developed decades ago. Equipment lags behind, production drops sharply, maintenance costs are high. Myanmar¡¯s energy ministry itself acknowledges that profits are scary.

Wu Geelun went to Yulin to see China's "Old Mine Resurrection Technique" this time. In fact, he wanted to learn a set of experience: how to use technology to dig out the value of old oil fields when there is little oil and gas. To put it bluntly, they need China to help them "renew their lives."

However, Myanmar also knows that technology alone is not enough. Investment and funds are also needed. Nowadays, they are short of foreign exchange, are plagued by sanctions, and have cut off international loans. The only thing they can ask for is China.

Therefore, the focus of this visit is not to visit, but to ask for help. Combating electric fraud is foreplay, and energy cooperation is the main course. Min Aung Lai hopes that China can increase investment in Myanmar in order to "cooperate in fighting crime" so that Myanmar's energy industry can survive.

China's Attitude: Cooperation is OK, but it cannot be "kidnapped by emotions"

From a Chinese perspective, this is a two-way point.On the one hand, China really hopes that Myanmar will manage its borders well and clear the issues of cross-border fraud, smuggling and smuggling.This is a big thing to safeguard national security and the interests of the people.

But on the other hand, China won't immediately agree to your conditions just because you have done your "part". It is your duty within your sovereignty to clean up the fraud park, not to "help", let alone to "vote for name".

China, of course, welcomes cooperation, but the premise is ¨C cooperation is stable, can be controlled, to have security security. China is not afraid to invest, but the most afraid is the environmental instability, policy change. Enterprises that have invested in Myanmar in the past, have eaten a lot of losses, this time, China will not be easy to judge. In other words, China is to see if you are "true change", not to hit a wind to finish. To see whether Myanmar can safeguard the oil and gas pipeline security, can we ensure the Sino-Myanmar economic corridor to progress smoothly.

Moreover, China has never seen the problem just looking ahead. For China, whether Myanmar can become a stable partner to the Indian Ocean, this is the core of its strategy. More oilfield refineries are more important than a safe path. If Myanmar can cooperate with China for a long time and maintain the security of the corridor, then cooperation will naturally deepen. Otherwise, even if you can sell again, trust will not be exchanged.

Key to cooperation: power matching, responsibility mutual

China is willing to help, but the prerequisite for helping is that you must be able to catch it. Technology can be exported and funds can be invested, but if Myanmar cannot even manage project security properly, or internal corruption is rampant and policies are repeated, no matter how much investment it has, it will be wasted.

During Wu Gelun's visit to China, the requirements of "hoping that China will increase investment", "upgrading refineries" and "training talents" are not excessive in themselves. The question is, can Myanmar fulfill its promises? Can it provide a stable environment for Chinese enterprises? Can oil and gas cooperation no longer be kidnapped by political turmoil?

In recent years, Minoanley has relied on military power to stabilize the political situation, but the external pressure is still great. European-American sanctions, internal ethnic arms, border conflict, can affect cooperation projects.

China's attitude is actually very clear: cooperation is not a gift, let alone a transaction. If Myanmar wants to get investment, it must prove that it is a trustworthy partner in action. Combating electric fraud is only the first step, and the real test is still ahead-whether we can maintain stability in the long term, ensure project safety, and respect bilateral agreements. This is what China values and the answer that Myanmar must hand over.