Text | Ruiguan Jingwei
Editor | Ruiguan Jingwei
Military confrontation in the Caribbean is approaching a critical point — On October 22, 2025, Venezuela’s President Maduro publicly declared that the country had deployed more than 5,000 Russian “Ice-S” air defense missiles, calling them “one of the most powerful weapons” to safeguard national security.
Just a week ago, on the island of Trinidad, 600 kilometers away from Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, the MH-60 Black Hawk helicopter of the US military's 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment had been deployed. In the military base in Puerto Rico, F-35 fighter jets could be launched at any time.
U.S. warships and aircraft are pressing step by step, and Venezuelan missiles are ready. Why does this seemingly ocean-wide confrontation involve China's energy security?
U.S. military pressure on Venezuela had begun in August 2025. on August 27, Xinhua news agency quoted U.S. media reports as saying that the U.S. president had secretly signed an order to deploy a squadron of three warships and about 4,500 soldiers to the waters near Venezuela.
The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry subsequently revealed that the U.S. military plans to send more ships, including the missile cruiser Lake Eli and the rapid-attack nuclear submarines Newport News, which are expected to reach the target position this week.
Entering October, the situation escalated further. On October 5, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagerseth made it clear in an interview that he had obtained all necessary authorizations to launch military strikes against ships suspected of transporting drugs off the coast of Venezuela.
The scale of the military deployment continues to expand.According to a report from the Global Times cited by Reuters on October 18, the U.S. military has deployed more than 10,000 troops in the Caribbean, spread across Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and various ships.
In addition to maritime power, air deterrence is also increased. B-52 bombers continue to circle in the waters north of Venezuela, while F-35 fighter jets are stationed at the base in Puerto Rico, forming a three-dimensional containment of sea and air.
What is more targeted is that the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, known as the "night stalker", has been deployed closely. Its MH-60 and MH-6 helicopters are only 90 miles away from the Venezuelan coastline. According to foreign media analysis, this force The force can quickly deliver elite troops such as the "Navy SEALs" to carry out raids or capture missions.
It is worth noting that the U.S. military is not without differences over this potential conflict. On October 18, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced that Horsey, commander of the Southern Command responsible for commanding Latin American forces, will step down early on December 12, earlier than the original term. Two years earlier.
People familiar with the matter revealed to Reuters that Horsey had previously had differences with Hegseth due to military operations in the Caribbean, and even reported that he was dismissed.
U.S. Senator Jack Reed has publicly said that this sensitive moment of personnel change is “uncomfortable” and concerned that the government has ignored the advice of senior combatants.
However, this personnel adjustment has not slowed down the pace of military operations. Since September, the US military has sunk at least five "drug carriers" in the Caribbean Sea, killing at least 27 people. Even though legal experts question its legitimacy, the United States still defended it on the grounds of "right to self-defense."
Faced with rapid military pressure, Venezuela launched a comprehensive defense response, and on August 26, the Ministry of Defense of Venezuela announced the deployment of 150,000 troops, equipped with warships, drones and other equipment, to carry out missions in Lake Maracaibo, the Gulf of Venezuela and the border with Colombia.
President Maduro said on August 25 that national forces at all levels had been mobilized to resist the threat, and that it would expand the scale again later that week after the weekend's recruitment.
On October 22, Maduro further illuminated the defense background, through EFE disclosing to the outside that Venezuela has deployed more than 5,000 Russian-designed "Ice-S" air defense missiles.
He emphasized that these missiles are flexible and easy to operate, and can effectively attack low-altitude fighters and helicopters. Thousands of professionally trained operators have been able to quickly deploy at strategic points across the country.
Venezuela's defense preparation has extended to the civilian field, images circulated on social media show that airports, ports and other key targets have been set up air defense systems near the road from the international airport of Caracas to the city area, "concrete shells" and other defense works have also been set up, obviously preparing to prevent ground raids.
At the diplomatic level, Venezuela has also actively sought support, and on August 26, Foreign Minister Hill met with the UN Commission coordinator, calling on the United Nations to intervene in U.S. actions, and issued an open letter to U.N. member states, condemning U.S. military deployments that threaten regional security.
On October 16, Samuel Moncada, Permanent Representative of Venezuela to the United Nations, formally submitted a letter to the United Nations, requesting the Security Council to investigate the US military's attack on civilian ships and determine its illegal nature. However, because the United States has veto power, the Security Council can only convene a meeting to discuss and no substantive action can be taken.
What is more noteworthy is that behind this military confrontation lies a direct impact on China's energy security. As an important oil exporter in Latin America, Venezuela and China maintain in-depth energy cooperation.
According to January 2024 import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in March 2024, Venezuela's total import and export value to China that month reached 4.107 billion yuan, of which the export value was 3.082 billion yuan, and petroleum and related products accounted for more than 90%.
As early as 2014, China Petroleum Group by signing oil trade contracts, achieved daily purchase of 100,000 barrels of fuel oil from Venezuela, the trade volume reached 790,000 barrels / day, became one of the largest oil traders in Venezuela, even in recent years international oil price fluctuations, Venezuela is still one of the important sources of Chinese crude oil imports.
If the conflict is escalated to military action, China's energy supply chain will face multiple risks, in the short term, if the U.S. military launched an airstrike, Venezuela's oil fields, refineries and other infrastructures may be damaged, directly leading to the decline in oil production, if the implementation of a maritime blockade, the port shutdown will interrupt crude oil export channels, affecting the stability of oil transportation to China.
In the long run, projects such as the Orinoco heavy oil belt cooperated by China and Venezuela may be forced to stall due to the turmoil. The annual production capacity of this project once reached 20 million tons and is an important fulcrum for China's overseas energy development.
For China, which relies heavily on crude oil imports, a single source country supply disruption is not about to trigger a global crisis, but it will weaken the diversified advantage of energy imports and increase supply chain management costs.
The current confrontation between the United States and Venezuela is still in a deadlock of "deterrence and counter-deterrence." The US military's deployment may seem huge, but its scattered troops and equipment configuration based on deterrence show that it is not yet ready for a comprehensive offensive.
Although Venezuela's defense layout is strict, it is limited to passive response and lacks the ability to actively counterattack. The strategic choices of both sides will determine the direction of the situation: if the United States insists on military pressure, it will not rule out local conflicts caused by misjudgment, and if it can return to the track of diplomatic negotiations, regional peace and energy security are expected to be guaranteed.
This crisis in the Far Caribbean has actually sounded the alarm clock for China's energy security, and in the context of increasingly complex global geopolitics, the risk of single energy cooperation objects cannot be ignored.
Diversifying import channels, strengthening energy reserves, and promoting renewable energy alternatives, these strategies that have long been mentioned, are more urgent under the real threat of the U.S. Commission's confrontation.
Every change in the U.S. Commission’s situation deserves the continued attention of energy practitioners and the general public – after all, in the age of globalization, the loud gunfire is likely to affect the energy bills around us.