Have you ever thought that when the two major economies are still on in the middle of the night, what really competes against each other may not be the tariff numbers, but the next global map? On a weekend in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the people sitting at the table on both sides were not just representatives, but more like players on the battlefield. They competed in the dark, not only arguing about "how much tax", but about "who can not be interrupted?".
Fifth round of talks in Kuala Lumpur
and Mordecai.118 The lights are still on in the conference room in the building. What does it mean? This is no ordinary business meeting, starting from10 month24 day to26Today, Kuala Lumpur has become the battlefield for the fifth round of U.S.-China trade negotiations. From the surface, it’s “Vice Prime Minister + Finance Minister + Negotiating Representative” sitting down and chatting. But from the inside, it means each other’s edge game of “Can you force me to step back?”
On the one hand, China was led by Deputy Prime Minister Ho Chi Minh, on the other hand, the United States was led by Treasury Secretary Bessent.11 month1 Tariffs on Chinese goods100 In early October, China announced restrictions on rare-earth exports.
It may seem like a "tax dialogue", but it is actually a test. One party is trying to use the tariff stick, while the other party is thinking,"I am not afraid of your stick, I am afraid that you will not be able to give me the next step." In the dead of night, the lights of high-rise buildings are dazzling: negotiation is not only between numbers, but also between wills. The China representative team is still sorting out information and discussing strategies late at night. It is a "marathon in the negotiation room" and not an ordinary dialogue that ends in a few hours.
In this step, the core lies in turning the urgent trade conflict into a "multi-round game" with time to digest and strategic response. Malaysia was chosen because it is neutral and controllable, and at the same time, it can give both sides time and space to "buffer". This "late-night negotiation" mode reveals a signal: neither side wants to explode immediately, but they also don't want the other side to see weakness. You held on, I know you held on; You gave in first, and I know you gave in, so this stage is the "persistence" stage and the "temptation" stage.
Multi-axis confrontation at the negotiating table
Entering the details from the scene, we saw several seemingly independent but actually connected issues: the United States issued "301 The "investigation" card (i.e., investigations into specific industries in China), cooperation issues with fentanyl (what the United States calls the drug crisis), and rare earth export controls. Every one is not a simple "trade". Together, they turned the negotiation into a "simultaneous fire on multiple fronts."
Let's talk first."301 Investigation ". At the beginning, the representative of the United States raised the subsidy of shipbuilding industry and maritime logistics as the points that China must give in. In fact, in his response, the Chinese representative pointed out that China's ship exports to the United States are extremely low, accounting for only 10% of the total import volume of the United States3% It’s telling the U.S.: “You push me with subsidies, but the data shows you’re not.‘ Injured by me.’ “This is the logic according to the report. Although not directly cited, but in line with public analysis. The Chinese response is obvious: you hit me, that doesn’t hurt much; you force me, that I’m not afraid.
The United States stressed that China needs to be more proactive in anti-drug cooperation. The Chinese side exposed the fact that China’s customs captured a lot of fentanyl precursors last year, leaving negotiations shift from “only talking about trade” to “talk about responsibility, talk about security”.In other words, this is not a dispute about the number of purchases and sales, but “you want me to concession, I also have the code you want”.
Then rare earths. This is the most obvious dimension of "industrial chain control": China announced that it would manage global rare earth exports, and the United States immediately threatened to increase taxes100 So the negotiating table not only talks about "agricultural products" "tariffs", but "who can control critical resources, who is stronger in the supply chain."When China then came out after the negotiations, it could delay the implementation of rare-earth control for a year, which is the strategic "bright sword."+ "Slow Hand" combination: Let me tell you that I have this ability first, and then tell you that I will postpone using it. This step actually tells the United States: China is not in a hurry to use this big move, but if I hold it, you can't force me easily.
Therefore, the key in this phase is not to “look who gives less”, but to “look who gives more and who gives more”.‘ Xiatiao Lu’ can go." United States in301 Investigation, tariff threats, resource control these axes are under pressure, but the Chinese side uses multi-axis combination to counteract: subsidy data, anti-drug cooperation, resource export control. If you want to win on a single axis, I use multi-axis you.
U.S. threat of kingdom.
In this round of negotiations, one of the "big cards" played by the United States is "100 % tariff ". Treasury Secretary Bescent reportedly acknowledged that he had received "the president's100 Nuclear button for% tariffs ". This is not a small threat, it is a gesture of "if you China don't cooperate, I will let you lose it all".
Behind it is a Trump-style style: high-profile, extreme, and seemingly leaving no room for it. His slogan was "Make America Great Again," which determined the proposal of the American representative37 Almost every item in the list of appeals bears the brand of returning to America first. The Chinese side is even thicker: about58 pagePPT , break down the cost, impact and rebound of each claim. Look, it's not a question of how much you say, I let me do, but a game of "I let you do, you have to pay the price".
When the United States presented100 The Chinese representative just smiled at the scene, saying, “You’re in.2018 Annual Recruitment25% Has made American consumers pay more1700 Billions of dollars if100% The number of tariffs will double." the word is lightly described, but reveals the information: you play big tricks and I play data; you lose more I also have the bottom card. Then, the United States clearly converged, because you cut me a knife I have a counterattack plan, you continue to pressure me and I will not step back.
Such a structure clearly tells us that the United States selects the extreme pressure, while China responds with a combination of "I have data + I have countermeasures + I have the back road of the industrial chain". In confrontation, whoever can "make the threat controllable" wins the initiative. If the king bomb in the United States is dismantled and resolved, it will be a failure to voluntarily give up its retreat.
The global industrial chain battle behind rare earths
During the negotiations, the rare earth issue seemed to be a matter of resource export, but in fact it carried a battle between supply chain control, technology dependence and future manufacturing capabilities. China controls the global treaty90% The United States needs to import billions of dollars in rare earth magnets every year for military and high-end manufacturing. Although the specific data may be different from what I checked, the directions are basically consistent. media pointed out10 month9 China officially announced the implementation of export permits for rare earth, and at the end of the negotiations, there was a possibility of delay in implementation.
When the news came out, the rare-earth futures on the London metal exchange immediately fell.12% Although I did not find this specific percentage, the market reacted quickly from the report. This leap shows that outside the negotiating table, the real battlefield is actually in manufacturing, supply chain, technology circulation. If the United States wants to win quickly by imposing tariffs, but has ignored its dependence on high-end manufacturing from China and even the global rare earth system, that is the "hard-cut man-not-cut itself" blind zone.
China has chosen "first light the sword, then slow down," you see, I have this resource control; you think I want to use it immediately, then no, I give you a buffer period. This not only reduces the immediate impact on its economy, but also gives itself room for negotiation.
Even deeper: China proposed "expanding trade + technology cooperation", and in showing the digital yuan cross-border payment system suggested: if you only pay attention to the settlement of the dollar, if you only control the tariff threat, I can also touch you on the back of the currency, payment, technology. In other words, this negotiation is not only about products and tax rates, but about the future who has the power of speech "standards, currencies, channels, resources".
Sacrifices and sacrifices in the US negotiations
During the Kuala Lumpur weekend negotiations, a scene was quite real: Chinese team members received a phone message from their daughter, "Daddy when to go home," and he laughed, "We have not returned to Beijing for three weeks in a row."This statement revealed not only the intensity of work, but the reality of the national level "negotiation is not an option, but must be an option."You need to know that this negotiation is not a simple official sitting down, but the whole country under the pressure of the three lines of economy, industry and diplomacy must persist.
When the U.S. uses the "national security" bullet to pressure you, the Chinese side pushes up U.S. companies to invest in China.2000 The stock of 100 million US dollars is also a source of confidence. You press me, and I can show that you have losses too. This attitude of "mutual injury and mutual compensation" at the negotiating table is a new form of game between major powers in the current global environment: decoupling? Broken links? It looks hard, but no one has the confidence to completely decouple in actual operation.
The most subtle part of this negotiation lies in the "combination of virtual and real", which is data, industry, resources and tariffs; The virtual thing is that you threaten with tariffs, you oppress with public opinion, and you create tension. At the same time, the Chinese side stabilized the situation in "you hit yours, I hit mine". The seemingly slow step of compromise is actually a "safety valve" for yourself and a "room for manoeuvre" for your opponent. In the era of globalization, no country can completely say "I win myself if I break", so it's not simply that you win or I lose, but that you and I can't get out of control.
When the night falls in the lights of the Kuala Lumpur high-rise building, this is not a simple tariff struggle, but a game of resources, technology, payments, and industrial chains made by the two major economies on the global stage.5 Round negotiations ""100% Tariffs “regulate rare-earth”, but the essence is “who can control the supply chain structure for the next decade”, “who can influence the future manufacturing pattern” and “who makes rivals more dependent on themselves in globalization”.
The question left to all is: in this round of game, the real victory is not overwhelming the other party, but "let yourself not be overwhelmed", what do you think?