Preliminary
With only two days left, South Korea's Lee Jae-myung will face a negotiation with almost no way back. The pressure of the United States is increasing layer by layer, including money, land, industry and sovereignty. Many Koreans have protested in the streets, but Lee Jae-myung has been backed into a corner.
The American lion opens its mouth, and South Korea is used as a cash machine
This time, the conditions offered by the United States can be said to be merciless. Asking South Korea to invest $350 billion in the United States, calling it "economic cooperation", is actually blatant blood-sucking. South Korea's Deputy Prime Minister himself admits that this money can't be obtained at all. Even if he tightens his belt, it will take more than ten years to collect it. Not to mention the current depreciation of the Korean won, and the investment cost is still rising.
This is not about cooperation, it is about forcing protection fees. The United States holds the flag of the so-called "security ally", and in fact requires South Korea to feed the U.S. industry with real gold and silver. The South Korean government at the same time has a cold sweat, because this money once it is thrown out, not only is fiscal tight, but can also trigger domestic economic shock. And Trump has a set of uncompromising appearances, not only asking for money, but also immediately in place, even wanting to let South Korea "prepaid".
From renting land to ceding land, South Koreans have made a fuss
What is even more outrageous is that this time, the United States actually included the land of US military bases in South Korea in the "transaction list." Originally it was just lent to the US military for free, but now it will become permanent possession. In other words, South Korea has to hand over the ownership of its land to others.
This is no ordinary business. It is the foundation of sovereignty. Public opinion in South Korea completely exploded, with people taking to the streets, shouting "No Trump" and opposing the government's betrayal of national interests.
You know, the US military stationed in South Korea itself is a legacy of history. Now the United States is going to turn the land into its own. Once it happens, South Korea will leave an irretrievable "colonial stronghold" next to the capital. Who can swallow this anger?
But the question is, can Li Zaiming resist? If the contract is not signed, the United States will immediately use economic and tariff means to pressure it. If you sign it, it will be a national disgrace; if you don't sign it, it will be a disaster. This is reality.
The tariffs rise, and the Korean export industry will bleed
While talking, the Americans raised the "trump card" of tariffs. Trump said that if South Korea did not agree, it would increase tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. When this word spread to Seoul, it immediately made major companies unable to sit still.
South Korea's economy relies on exports, and the profits of the automotive, semiconductor, steel industries are poor, many only 5% to 10%. once tariffs are raised, these products cannot be sold in the international market.
In July this year, South Korea’s steel exports to the U.S. have dropped 26%, which is just a prequel. If the U.S. really included semiconductors in the high tariff list, it would be a deadly blow to South Korea. Moreover, the U.S. has begun to investigate South Korea’s semiconductor industry, on the grounds of “national security”. It sounds like the crown royal, in fact, is to open the way in advance, to find an excuse for imposing high tariffs. For South Korea, the game has lost balance.
Who is planning the changes at China's doorstep?
This negotiation is not only a book issue between South Korea and the United States, but also a big washing of cards in the East Asian pattern.The United States wants not only South Korea’s money, but to bind South Korea completely to its own military vehicle.
In the industrial chain, South Korea and China have very close ties, especially in semiconductors, automotive parts, electronic materials and other fields.If South Korea plunges $350 billion into U.S. factories, the China-Korea cooperation chain will be crushed.
The U.S. calculator is clear: emptying the Korean manufacturing industry, weakening the entire East Asian industrial competitiveness, allowing the U.S. to regain manufacturing dominance. From a geographical perspective, the transaction is more like a “strategic position”. Once the agreement is signed, South Korea is not only economically dependent on the U.S., but also politically and securely will be further locked down. For China, this is the turmoil at the doorstep. U.S. military bases, industrial chain transfers, regional security connections, all may trigger a chain reaction in the coming years.
Whether you sign or not, you are doomed to be passive
There is almost no suspense in the current situation. Trump arrived in Seoul two days later, and Lee Jae-myung was likely to "sign with tears". The Korean media used "a deal without winners" to describe this incident, which has been very restrained.
Signed, the United States is temporarily satisfied, but South Korea will have a heavy burden on its back.Finances are drained, sovereignty is damaged, and industrial chains are broken.
Without signing, the United States immediately turned its face, raising taxes, sanctions, and withdrawing funds fell together.This is unbearable for South Korea, which is currently slowing economic growth and turbulent exchange rates.
No matter which choice is made, South Korea is losing blood, but the difference is speed. This is the cruelty of reality: when a country relies too much on another country's security and markets, its destiny is no longer in its own hands.