When Putin came to the front line and ordered the Russian army to "ensure the safe surrender of the Ukrainian army," a "siege war" against Ukraine had entered the countdown, and the final conclusion seemed to be coming?
According to news from the Russian Satellite News Agency, Russian President Vladimir Putin suddenly appeared on the front line recently, inspected a command point of the Joint Forces Group, and listened to the latest reports from the commanders.
The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army, Glazimov, made a summary:
Ukrainian troops in the Red Army City and the Dmitrov region were captured, and more than 10,000 Ukrainian troops were encircled by Russian divisions in both Kupiyansk, Kharkov and Krasnoarmisk, Donetsk; Russian troops took control of the Oscars and liberated 70% of the area of Volchansk.
Especially in the Red Army City, the Ukrainian newspaper Truth rarely acknowledged that the situation in the eastern major town was “extremely critical” – the Russian military not only penetrated into the city, but also controlled the surrounding railway line along the key villages of Da Hank-Novopavlovka-Hnativka, with Ukrainian drone operators and artillery positions being the main target.
According to reports, the contact between the headquarters and the infantry who had held their positions for nearly three months was almost interrupted, and it was only possible to confirm whether the soldiers were alive by radio.
More seriously, all supply routes to the city have been monitored by Russian drones all the time, transporting wounded troops and even suburban volcanoes, resulting in “recovery operations turning into new casualties.”
The "ultimatum" circulated on the telegram channel showed that the Russian army demanded that the Red Army, the Ukrainian army surrender as soon as possible, otherwise it would face complete annihilation. Although the Ukrainian airborne assault troops claimed to regain control of the village of Sukhtsk, local counterattacks made it difficult to reverse the overall dilemma.
It can be said that the Ukrainian front is collapsing at an astonishing rate.
Unlike in the past, Putin issued a striking order – asking the Russian military to “take all necessary measures” to ensure that Ukrainian soldiers who attempted to surrender were not shot by their own guards, while rescuing abducted civilians.
The order hides a major shift in the Russian military strategy: dismantling the Ukrainian resistance through the psychological battle of the “Triple One” and turning humanitarian action into a weapon of public opinion.
Analysts believe that Putin's move is not only a pre-emptive response to criticism from the international community, but also exposes the Russian military's plan for the upcoming large-scale wave of prisoners.
When Gerasimov reported that foreign mercenaries accounted for as high as 60%, and even African-American and Colombia soldiers appeared, the alarm that Ukraine's troops were exhausted was deafening.
Military pressure on the Ukrainian front is resonating with the social collapse behind.
Russia launched a large-scale cluster strike on Ukraine's defense industry and energy facilities. Nine "Iskander-M" missiles and 62 drones tore through the night sky. Although some were intercepted by the Ukrainian army, they still caused casualties in Kiev and other places.
What is even more fatal is that Kiev's fifth and sixth thermal power plants were paralyzed during continuous air strikes, and widespread power outages were curtailed in the capital. The official notice bluntly stated that "this will be the most difficult winter" and recommended that people evacuate to the suburbs. Kiev and other cities fully implement power rationing and water cuts measures.
This "energy strangulation war" directly refers to social stability.
The Russian military’s strategic intention is clear: by destroying the power system and stagnating Ukrainian industrial production, the city has plunged into the dark cold, eventually triggering public riots forcing the authorities to negotiate.
Before winter comes, the destruction of the energy system will destroy social order more than artillery shells.
Observing the Russian military's recent tactics, we can discover its trajectory of advancement: after Bahmut's "meat grinder" attack, it turned to a new urban warfare model of "isolation-siege-persuasion".
In the Battle of Red Army City, the Russian army avoided street fighting consumption and instead controlled traffic lines to implement a long-term siege. This change not only significantly reduced casualties, but also exacerbated the logistical crisis of the Ukrainian army.
At present, the Russian army has taken the initiative of the battlefield, and bad weather in the winter will become a "natural assistance".
The future battlefield may present three trends:
First, the fall of the Red Army City triggered a systematic collapse of the Donbas defense line, and Russian troops approached Dnipro; Second, the Ukrainian army has reorganized its defense, but it has to bear the pressure on people's livelihood caused by the destruction of energy facilities; Third, the resumption of Western aid has brought the war situation to a stalemate, but Russia and Ukraine may enter a "frozen conflict" mode in 2026.
In any case, Ukraine has faced the long-term dilemma of lack of troops, population loss, and disintegration of its industrial base. Although Europe is constantly waving the flag for Ukraine, it hopes that it can persist until the last moment.
But at present, Russia should also be able to achieve its strategic goals and only need to weigh the balance between "territorial gains" and "economic overdraft."
This war has already surpassed the battlefield victory and defeat, and has become a multiple contest of endurance, scientific and technological power and public opinion influence. It is expected that the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war will become clearer and clearer in the future, and we will wait and see.