In the game between China and the United States, the attitude of European countries has always been very ambiguous, especially Germany, France and other European powers, which have not blindly followed the footsteps of the United States. Therefore, China treats these European powers very kindly.
However, China's good fortune has actually become "taken for granted" in the eyes of some countries. In particular, French President Macron even retaliated against China during the EU leaders 'summit, calling him a modern version of a farmer and a snake.
So why did he make this choice? Can he listen to the reminder of Russian experts?
The art of screaming.
Recently, the wind direction of China-EU relations is a little wrong. French President Macron's statement after the EU summit made many people feel skipped a beat. He publicly accused China's export controls of "economic coercion" and even made malicious remarks that if China continues to "get stuck" on key raw materials, the EU should use its most powerful trade weapon.
These words sound full of gunpowder, and they also bring a term to the surface-the Anti-Coercive Tools Act, or ACI for short. This thing sounds hard to mess with, and has been described by some people as a "nuclear option" in the EU's trade arsenal. Rather than a shell about to be fired, it is more like a mirror, reflecting the complicated mentality of the EU, which is not only tough, but also afraid of injury, but also extremely anxious when facing China.
The reason for this is that China, starting in April, strengthened the export licensing management of some rare-earth elements and related technologies, and later added mining and metallurgy technology. China's explanation is clear: this is for national security considerations, because these things involve military and civilian use.
Data showed that there were about 2,000 priority license applications at the time, but only about half of them were approved. Macron could not sit down and put the ACI card directly on the table.
Germany seemed very calm, saying that the matter was "only discussed and not yet decided". while the European Commission, on the one hand, said to take risks, on the other hand, is still conducting technical consultations with China, discussing the quota management details.
To be honest, ACI’s performance value at the present stage may be far greater than its real war value.Macron chose to speak high at that time, more like a well-planned political show, with a goal inside and outside, playing with a double arrow.
Externally, this is testing China's bottom line. Don't you engage in export control? I'll label it as "economic coercion" and then threaten to use "nuclear weapons" to see how you react and whether you will let go under pressure. At the same time, this is also to find out the true water level of the EU's tough stance towards China, and to see how many countries are willing to follow France.
Yes, this is a political mobilization. In the context of the global game of power, discussions within the EU about how to “stand up” have not stopped. Macron threw ACI, a seemingly powerful tool, undoubtedly to seize the right to speak and highlight France’s leadership in the EU.
But the slogan cried again, and the sense of reality could not be avoided. The threshold for the launch of ACI is very high and requires a high consensus of 27 member states, which is almost an impossible task within the different interests of the European Union. Germany, as the head of the European Union’s economic train, is so cautious that it itself shows how difficult it is to act together.
1,000 enemies are injured, 800 self-injured
The fundamental reason why the EU is so hesitant to use ACI is that it cannot calculate its economic accounts. If this "double-edged sword" is swung, it is very likely that it will bleed before it hurts others.
An expert at the Russian Committee on International Affairs said that China, of course, did not want to see this happen, but the EU sanctions have a limited substantial impact on China. Why? Because China’s dominance in the global supply chain, especially in the absolute advantage of rare-earth metallurgy and separation technology, is a few sanctions that can shake up?
If you look at the EU, the consequences are unthinkable if the table is really raised. Europe’s key industries such as automotive, steel, wind, etc. rely heavily on China’s key raw materials. Once the supply chain is cut, the cost rises, the production capacity is affected, and may even trigger the outflow of industry and capital.
In fact, some recent EU practices have damaged China’s mutual trust in Europe. For example, in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, they have listed some enterprises in mainland China and Hong Kong on the basis of “supporting Russian military industry” or “helping to circumvent export restrictions”. This “long-arm jurisdiction” in itself makes relations tension. If it escalates on rare-earth issues, it will only escalate the confrontation and put the European economy in greater uncertainty.
Don’t forget that in the past, the two sides were not without cooperation. China’s Minister of Commerce Wang Ventao has mentioned that before the EU’s rare-earth exports were approved, and even there was a quick “agent office” route. The inertia of this cooperation, coupled with the attractiveness of China’s huge market, made the EU have to think back and forth when making decisions.
You hit yours, I hit mine
Faced with pressure from the EU, represented by ACI, China's response strategy has become increasingly mature and three-dimensional. This is no longer a simple "tit-for-tat" approach, but a long-term approach that combines "regular games" and "supply chain power consolidation".
China’s response was clever, and on the one hand it promised to accelerate the processing of export applications for compliance, to give European enterprises a bullet of determination and to ease their industrial anxiety. On the other hand, it was like taking the focus of the game from the “economic coercion” political accusations, pulling back to the professional level of “technology and compliance”, and at once dissolving each other’s high moral pressure, holding the initiative of negotiations firmly in their hands.
The following is the establishment of a link mechanism that puts the rules of the game on the table. China has already begun to conceive of the convenience of approval, directly linked to the EU's own compliance commitments. For example, you can set quotas for some key industries, while saying clearly: If the EU really launched ACI, then China's licensing policy and technology export review will be adjusted accordingly. This is actually a red line, establishing a predictable counter-rule, to avoid the situation out of control and escalation.
In the long run, China's ultimate response is to constantly consolidate its own protective river. In the face of the EU's Key Raw Materials Law initiatives aimed at "risk reduction", the best approach is not passive defense, but proactive strike, strengthening its leadership in green metallurgy, high-performance magnetic technology and recycling processes. When your technology and standards become a global benchmark, the industrial advantage naturally translates into rule-making power, and then, any so-called deterrent tools will become meaningless because they can't find a place to use.
conclusion
The mirror of the Anti-Coercive Tools Act clearly reflects the EU's current strategic dilemma. It is not only the cry of the EU desperately trying to find a road of "strategic autonomy" in the fierce competition among great powers, but also helplessly exposes the split of its internal interests and its realistic dependence on the external economy. In the future, China-EU relations will most likely move forward in this repeated tug-of-war of "cooperation and confrontation".
The possibility of the EU actually pressing the ACI button is still very low, but its existence itself will be like a thorn and will continue to become a variable in bilateral relations. For China, the best counterattack has never been an emotional confrontation, but by building a stable and transparent rule system and consolidating its irreplaceable industrial advantages, so that all games can eventually return to the rational track. Only in this way can those so-called "nuclear options" eventually become a button that will never dare to be pressed.
Observer Network 2025-10-24 "Macron hurried to jump: it's not a trick, the EU will launch a "nuclear option" against China"
Russian Satellite News Agency 2025-10-24 "Russian Experts: China does not want to see this, the EU has no place to put pressure on China"