In recent days, the international news circle burst, and Russia directly announced the withdrawal from that old-fashioned uranium management and disposal agreement, causing the US-Russian nuclear arms control system to collapse.On October 8, the State Duma voted to pass the abolition bill, which is not a joke, it involves the pile of nuclear materials in the hands of the two countries that can bomb the earth several times.
Putin plays this card hard. On the surface, it appears to be a response to the "hostile actions" of the United States, but on the inside, it makes the risk of global nuclear proliferation rise sharply. Think about it, the arms control balance that was built with great difficulty after the Cold War is now about to fall apart. The agreement was originally signed by the two countries in 2000, with the purpose of destroying each other's 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium and avoiding a return to the arms race.
But now, Russia says it makes no sense to continue, and the United States can only look at it.Tell back, this game is over, what does Putin really do? is it really to rebuild the old Cold War path, or is it forcing the United States to sit down and talk?
Russia's old debt and current pain points.
The root of Russia's withdrawal from the plutonium agreement has to start from the beginning. The full name of this agreement is the Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement. It was signed in Moscow in September 2000. At that time, the United States and Russia had just climbed out of the quagmire of the Cold War and wanted to breathe a sign. The agreement stipulates that the two countries will each dispose of at least 34 tons of weapons-grade plutonium, which is the core material of nuclear warheads, and one ton can make hundreds of atomic bombs.
It was revised again in Prague in April 2010 and more detailed, the United States intended to convert uranium into hybrid oxide fuel in civilian nuclear power plants, and Russia also launched similar procedures at the factories in the Chelyabinsk region. It sounds pretty speculative, right? is to turn this pile of "time bombs" into harmless waste and reduce the risk of nuclear proliferation.
However, the good times did not last long. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan in 2011, the handling of nuclear materials in the United States became chaotic. When the Congressional Budget Committee saw that the money spent on building disposal facilities was seriously overspent, in April 2015, the Department of Energy simply changed its plan unilaterally and used dilution methods to mix plutonium into glass or ceramics and bury it underground.
This new way of Russia does not buy the bill, they think it is not completely destroyed, the uranium can still refined and rebuild weapons, contrary to the original intention. More outrageous is that the United States did not negotiate in advance, so set the trick. the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the time jumped, and on October 3, 2016, Putin signed the presidential order to suspend the performance of obligations.
The reason is straightforward: the anti-missile systems deployed by the United States in Romania and Poland directly threaten the safety of Russia's strategic missiles. These systems have been launched one after another in 2016. Radar can track the trajectory of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russian military has tested it, and it will be chaotic when the interference signal is sent out.
Since then, the agreement has been half-lived. Russia says that the U.S. "hostile actions" are increasing, after the 2014 Crimea events, sanctions two in a row, assets frozen, technology exports banned, the Russian economy to breathe. In February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, the United States led military aid, NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, the Baltic states military exercises on a daily basis.
Russia feels that maintaining the agreement is simply asking for trouble. On October 8, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov bluntly stated in his speech in the Duma that the strategic environment has completely changed. The United States 'support for Ukraine's legislation, NATO's eastward expansion, and the missile defense system are all crushing the camel. The last straw.
He also listed the conditions: the United States must lift sanctions, dismantle Eastern Europe's missile defense, stop NATO's expansion.But where has the United States been moving over the years?Riyabkov said that now none of these conditions have been met, and there is no reason to continue the obligation.
This is not only a technical issue, but also a strategic game. The Russian economy is affected by sanctions, the conventional military force and China and the United States have a gap, and nuclear power is the sign of the bottom of the pressure box. The missiles left in the Soviet era are old, but the "Ars" RS-24 can carry multiple warheads, high precision and scary. Underwater there are nuclear submarines of the "God of the North Wind" class, ensuring second strike capability.
Russia is pushing supersonic weapons, such as the "Avangard" gliding vehicle and the "Poseidon" unmanned underwater vehicle. These new guys are beyond the control of existing arms control treaties. Withdrawing from the agreement is equivalent to making room for these projects, and plutonium materials can be used directly. In other words, this step was well-calculated. Russia not only kept its inventory, but also kicked the ball to the United States and asked the other side to express its position first.
Why did nuclear weapons control this network so easily break a large hole?
As soon as Russia withdrew, the plutonium agreement was completely cold, which made the nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia worse. After the Cold War, the two countries dismantled tens of thousands of nuclear warheads, and the inventory dropped from more than 70,000 at the peak to several thousand now. But now, the arms control framework is like dominoes, falling down a large piece.
In August 2019, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was invalidated, and the United States withdrew first on the grounds that Russia deployed SSC-8 missiles in violation of the terms. Russia countered that the U.S. anti-missile system in Europe can also launch offensive missiles. And the result? Both sides began to develop medium-range missiles, with the United States testing them in the Pacific and Russia deploying them in Kaliningrad.
Now only the new strategic weapons treaty is left to support the facade. This agreement was signed in 2010 and restricts both sides to deploy 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads, 700 launchers, and 800 loaders. It will expire on February 5, 2026.
The negotiations have long been stuck, and Russia suspended its participation in February 2023 on the grounds that the United States provided military aid to Ukraine. In the summer of 2025, Putin proposed a one-year extension, but with harsh conditions: China must be included, and hypersonic weapons must be limited.
On the other side of the United States, after the Trump administration took office, it said that it wanted to talk, but the actual action was small. The report shows that in 2025, the total number of nuclear warheads in the United States and Russia will exceed 9,000, about 5,580 in Russia and about 5,400 in the United States. As soon as the plutonium agreement was abolished, military plutonium was separated from the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, leaving only civilian projects under management, and strategic inventories became black boxes.
This collapse is not a day, to blame the mutual trust of the two sides is long gone. Russia accuses the United States of treaty as a child, signed non-compliance, like the Asian space-based missile defense program, which was banned, the United States preferred to push.
In turn, the United States said that Russia has a low threshold for nuclear use, revised its nuclear strategy in November 2024, allowed the use of tactical nuclear weapons for conventional attacks, and also deployed nuclear bombs in Belarus. Russia said this is in response to NATO threats. Starting in 2023, Belarus will train its troops to use "Iskander" missiles. In the summer of 2025, the two countries will sign a mutual assistance treaty. Technical exchanges include dual-purpose equipment.
Other countries, such as India and Pakistan, have been tense and are now more reluctant to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Fissile Materials.The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that by 2025, the smuggling of nuclear materials has increased by 30%, and the abolition of the uranium agreement is equivalent to oil pouring on fire.
It's like two neighbors originally made an appointment to tear down the fence, but now one side says you do it first, so I won't tear it down. As a result, the fence was not only not demolished, but also raised. The United States and Russia hold 90% of the world's nuclear weapons. They don't cooperate, and small countries follow suit. European countries are worried. Germany and France call for the resumption of dialogue, but there are different opinions within NATO.
Britain and France have small nuclear power and rely on the umbrella of the United States. Now the United States is busy with the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, and Europe has become a sandwich biscuit. On China's side, its nuclear power is steadily expanding. In 2025, more DF-41 intercontinental missiles will be installed, and the phalanx will be neat during the military parade. However, the official emphasizes minimum deterrence and does not participate in the arms race. In short, if the net of nuclear arms control is broken and cannot be filled, the risk will have to be shouldered globally.
Putin’s Nuclear Chart Office: Stable in its own backyard, or a new global Cold War?
Putin's move was ruthless on the surface, but in fact it was to stabilize the plate. Russia's economy relies on energy. Oil exports are halved under sanctions. Conventional military power is slowly renewed. Nuclear is the bottom line.
On October 22, 2025, Putin commanded the strategic nuclear force exercises, launched the "Aars" missile from Plesetsk, submarine submerged in the Barents Sea, tested the second strike. Russian nuclear stockpile about 4,300 deployed warheads, Salmat heavy missile launch well installed, can carry 10 submissile heads, range 10,000 kilometers.
Putin said at a summit in Tajikistan on October 10 that if the U.S. does not extend the new START ceiling, Russia has the capacity to respond. This is hard-hearted, and actually remains on the way. In September 2025, he proposed a new START extension, but to three sides, including China, to limit all strategic weapons. This proposal has not been accepted by the U.S. and Trump said he wants to talk, but must stop Ukrainian military aid first.
Speaking of Putin's restart of the Cold War? Not so much. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union fought each other forever. Now that the global economy is connected, Russia can't live without the Chinese market. In 2025, Sino-Russian trade will exceed US $200 billion, and energy cooperation will be tight. Putin revised the nuclear doctrine and lowered the threshold, but emphasized defensiveness rather than active attack.
Russia withdrew from CTBT certification, Putin signed the bill in November 2023, but did not resume nuclear tests, leaving only options. Cooperation with North Korea and Iran deepened, and in the summer of 2025 Russia signed a treaty on mutual assistance, technology transfer for dual purposes, but no evidence of nuclear proliferation. Iran's Bush nuclear power plant is built, Russia provides fuel, but civilian labels.
After the expiration of the new START, there is no ceiling, the US and Russia may upload more warheads, the U.S. B-21 bombers in service, carrying nuclear bombs. Russia's "Crimean" high-speed supersonic missile deployment ships, speed 10 Mach. Experts estimate that the probability of an arms race after 2026 is 70%. But Putin also knows that the nuclear war has no winner, he repeatedly said strategic stability is in the common interest.
In October 2025, Russia proposed to restart dialogue in Geneva, but the U.S. State Department responded cautiously and said it would depend on the situation. Anyway, who blinks first in this game? Putin is betting that the United States is fighting more, and Trump comes to power to distract immigrants from the Middle East, so that Russia can delay time to modernize its nuclear arsenal.
In 2025, India tested the Agni-5 missile with a range of 5000 kilometers. Pakistan followed suit. North Korea test-fired multiple missiles in the first half of 2025. Putin signed an agreement during his visit to North Korea, making it highly suspected of technical assistance. In the Middle East, Israel and Iran are at war. Iran has enriched uranium to 60% and is close to weapons grade.
The United Nations reports that the threat of nuclear terrorism rises in 2025 and the end of the nuclear deal is equivalent to opening the door for proliferation. Ross this step, stabilizing his own security, but paying the global debt. Putin wants to restart the Cold War? not the whole, but the local confrontation will definitely intensify.
Generally speaking, Russia's withdrawal from the plutonium agreement is the tip of the iceberg, and the US-Russia nuclear road is getting narrower and narrower. Putin holds the nuclear card in his hand and is doing it step by step, but whoever stirs up this pot of porridge in the world is hot. I hope it doesn't really come to that point. It's better for everyone to sit down and talk than to stare at each other.