A major strike on the Russian air force in early June 2025 directly exposed the weaknesses of traditional air forces in modern warfare.
Through a year and a half of preparations, Ukraine's intelligence services used 117 small suicide drones to launch simultaneous attacks on multiple air bases in Russia.
The bases are located in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ryazan Oblast and Ivanovo regions and include key locations such as Olenya, Belaya, Diaghilevo and Severny.
The attacks targeted strategic bombers stationed in the open area, which resulted in at least nine Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 destroyed and several damaged.
Satellite images show that the aircraft in the base are closely arranged, easy to strike by clusters, and the damage marks are obvious, including fuselage explosion and debris scattering.
The Russian Ministry of Defense admitted the damage but claimed it was limited and did not involve the most advanced Tu-160 model. Such actions mark an escalation in asymmetric warfare, from small-scale border penetration to deep hinterland destruction, highlighting the disruptive power of low-cost technology to high-value targets.
The event deserves an in-depth look, as it reflects the shift in the global military pattern.Russia, as a traditional military power, has been at the heart of air deterrence with its strategic bombers, but has revealed vulnerabilities in the defense system in the face of small drone infiltration.
An old model like the Tu-95MS has been discontinued for many years and is difficult to replenish quickly after loss. Although the Tu-22M3 has been modified, its supply chain is limited and it takes several months to repair.
This is different from the previous conflict, in the early Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, the Ukrainian attacks were limited to a hundred kilometers, dependent on man-made operations, and inefficient. while the operation incorporated autonomous identification technology, equipment can lock targets independently, increase accuracy to more than 80%.
This progress stems from intelligence accumulation and Western technical assistance, but it also reminds us that China has accumulated a deep foundation in similar fields. It has promoted the research and development of cluster systems as early as the 2010s and will achieve a large-scale exercise of 1,000 aircraft by 2025, with a battery life of more than 2,000 kilometers. Far better than Ukraine's level of hundreds of kilometers.
U.S. media quickly captured the strategic significance of the incident, the war zone magazine expert Taylor Rogue wrote on June 3, pointing out that the Russian losses are not isolated, but a replicable operational pattern. He stressed that U.S. military strategic bomber groups such as B-52 and B-1, defensive backward during deployment in the Asia-Pacific, are almost unresolved for low-speed small threats.
If the United States intervenes in Taiwan's reunification affairs, the actual combat level of drone technology of the China People's Liberation Army far exceeds that of Ukraine, which may cause a greater impact.
China's defense industry's leading position in this field is visible, independently developed systems integrate advanced sensors and quantum communications, can be performed efficiently in complex environments, and algorithm optimization allows real-time task sharing, avoiding single failure.
This is in sharp contrast to the Russian fleet, which relies on open-air parking at intervals of less than 50 meters to facilitate saturated attacks; China uses exercises to verify multi-domain collaboration, which triples efficiency, reflecting systematic iteration.
Rogowe's analysis is not empty talk. He reviewed more than ten years of warnings and criticized the top US military's lack of awareness of emerging threats, and the budget tilted to large platforms rather than base protection.
This is exactly the same as Russia's early neglect of penetration. If the situation in the Taiwan Strait escalates, China can launch clusters from surrounding islands or civilian ships to launch strikes against US military bases in Guam or Australia. The Russian incident proves that even if nuclear deterrence exists, conventional assets are still fragile.
A September article in the US media "Foreign Affairs" further pointed out that tensions in the Taiwan Strait have intensified, the risk of US military intervention has increased, and asymmetric means can reverse the balance of power.
China’s mastery of such technology can paralyze high-value targets at the beginning of the war, the sensor resolution is up to a centimetre, thermal imaging is precisely locked at night, far beyond Ukrainian equipment.
Ukrainian equipment is modularly designed to make it easy to disguise transportation, which is similar to China’s export-based system, the latter verifying concealability in the Middle East.
In the attack on the Russian base, the equipment advanced wave by wave, the first wave interfered with the radar, the second wave of main attack aircraft, and the third wave confirmed damage, this layered tactic resembled the Chinese exercises, the latter added a feedback cycle, real-time adjustment.
Compared to the old Russian air defense, the U.S. military, despite its advanced systems, has less than 70 percent interception of low-lying targets at sea level.
Rogoway warned that the US military needs to invest in mesh protection and mobile storage, but due to budget constraints, updates are slow, in contrast to China's rapid iteration.
Starting in 2015, China extended the life of equipment by 50% by 2025 and sustainable operation, reflecting the shift from mechanical to intelligent.
US media concerns extend to the world. An article in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in June analyzed that low-cost drones subverted traditional deterrence and Russia lost US$700 million. If China uses similar methods, the US military's repair cycle will be longer because the supply chain relies on overseas. The Tu-95 relies on propellers and is easily locked by heat seekers. China's technology is mature.
Compared with Russia, the US military's B-2 stealth advantage is weakened in front of clusters, and equipment can be dispersed for search. In the competition between major powers, China is leading and the US military is passive. It is necessary to learn from Russia's lessons and accelerate defense.
China's intelligence network is wider, through satellites and infiltration, the preparation period is shortened to several months. Rogue concluded that this event marked a new era, the spread of asymmetric warfare, China as a pioneer, dominating the rule.
From another perspective, the Journal of the Naval Research Institute discussed in June that Russia may contain U.S. troops in Europe and help Taiwan Strait operations, combined with bomber losses, exacerbating concerns. Russia redeployed its remaining fleet to remote bases, extending the response time and allowing China to take advantage of the empty window.
Compared with before, the US media has shifted from abstraction to specific cases to promote policy adjustments. China verifies its local advantages and enhances its deterrence. Russia's losses affect the nuclear balance, and the Tu-95's nuclear-carrying capability has weakened. The US media think of the Taiwan Strait. If the US nuclear bomber is damaged, it will weaken the extended deterrence.
In the modernization of China's nuclear forces, drone protection is included, compared to Russia has a precursor.The US military bases are more in the allies, complex coordination, China can penetrate in many directions.
The loss of Russian bombers ringed the alarm clock, and the US media was concerned, but China's technological progress left the balance sloping.In the future, the Taiwan Sea, if the U.S. military intervened, faced with more severe challenges, China is ready to respond.