«--[· Preface ·]--»
According to a report by Russia RT on October 26, Polish Prime Minister Tusk revealed in an interview that Ukraine President Zelensky said that Ukraine is ready to fight Russia for two to three years.
Tusk said he hoped that the war would not last for a decade, but Ukraine was ready to continue fighting for two to three years, and the message was very clear: even if the situation was severe, Ukraine would not have a ceasefire, but would continue to die.
As for why the time node of three years was chosen, I'm afraid it's not because of the battlefield situation, nor is it because Russia will collapse if it can't hold it for three years. The more likely reason is that the United States will hold another general election three years later.
Last year's U.S. election has seriously affected the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelensky does have reason to hope for the first round of the election three years later. And it's not just a pep talk, it's a pep talk for the Europeans.
Political gambling behind the three-year war.
On October 26, Polish Prime Minister Tusk's speech sparked a wave in international politics. he revealed that Ukrainian President Zelensky made it clear that Ukraine has been ready for another two to three years of war with Russia.
This appears to be a sudden statement, and in fact it is a politically well-planned strategy by Zelensky’s team. From a timeline point of view, this is not Zelensky’s first release of long-term combat signals. Early in his New Year’s address on December 31, 2024, he proposed to fight in 2025 on the two lines of “battlefield” and “negotiation table”.
At a summit in support of Ukraine on February 24, 2025, Zelensky further stressed that he hoped to end the conflict in that year, but also acknowledged the need for security safeguards to prevent Russia from “turning back”.
This seemingly contradictory statement actually reflects Ukraine's strategic vacillation and helplessness. What really made Zelensky determined to propose "another three years of war" was the timetable for the US election. According to the U.S. Constitution, a new presidential election will be held in 2028.
If Biden succeeds in re-election in 2024, his term of office will last until 2029.But from the May 2024 poll data, Biden’s support rate has dropped to 36 percent, which is slightly different from Trump.
Once Trump is elected in 2024, his policy toward Ukraine may undergo a fundamental change. As Trump said in August 2025, the United States will stop directly funding Ukraine and require NATO to undertake weapons supplies to Ukraine.
This policy shift is fatal to Ukraine, so Zelensky is eager to drag the war until 2028, hoping that the U.S. election by then will produce a president friendly to Ukraine.
“Help in Europe”
Zelensky's plan to "fight for another three years" relies heavily on European support. However, the differences and dilemmas within Europe are becoming increasingly prominent. From the perspective of aid intensity, Europe does provide a lot of support.
As of September 2025, the EU has provided Ukraine with €170 billion in military and financial assistance and plans to add €5 billion by the end of 2025 with a focus on air defense systems and armored vehicles.
Germany has also announced plans to raise €7 billion in military aid by 2025, of which €3 billion has already been approved, but these are far from sufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs. According to the 2025 budget, its defense spending is up to $54 billion, accounting for 62% of the total budget, while its fiscal deficit is $35 billion, almost dependent on Western aid.
Poland, as a neighbor and firm supporter of Ukraine, has been actively pushing for aid to Ukraine, but other countries such as Hungary have repeatedly blocked the EU’s aid program to Ukraine for various reasons.
This division was particularly pronounced at the plenary session of the European Parliament in September 2025. Although European Commission President von der Leyen announced that he would advance the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and establish a "drone alliance" with Ukraine, there is heated debate within the European Parliament about the sustainability and effectiveness of aid.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led to rising energy prices and high inflation in Europe.In 2025 the EU inflation rate will remain at around 7%, and economic growth in major economies such as Germany and France will stagnate.
In this context, European citizens’ support for long-term aid to Ukraine has gradually declined.A poll in October 2025 showed that only 45% of EU citizens’ support continued to provide military aid to Ukraine, down 12 percentage points from 2024.
«--[· Ukraine's economic collapse ·]--»
Under the consumption of a long war, Ukraine's economy is on the verge of collapse. As of July 2025, its public debt climbed to $180 billion, or 110% of GDP, with about $167 million in new liabilities added daily.
By 2025, Ukraine will have to pay interest on foreign debt of $9 billion, equivalent to 50% of the fiscal budget, while the budget deficit is up to $35 billion.In order to maintain the operation of the war machine, the Ukrainian government has had to misuse funds in the areas of people's livelihoods such as education, healthcare and other, leading to a sharp deterioration of the domestic people's livelihoods.
At the same time as the economy collapsed, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine could also be optimistic. Although Zelensky repeatedly claimed that the Ukrainian army had gained advantage in areas such as drone combat, the reality is that this was not the case. In September 2025, the Russian army, using pipeline assault tactics, torn the Ukrainian defensive line in Kupiyansk in just eight minutes and advanced to 2 kilometers off the West Bank.
This tactical innovation made the Ukrainian army invincible. Worse, the Ukrainian army suffered heavy losses in the counterattack. From May to September 2025, the Russian army added about 5,000 square kilometers of new control zone, while the Ukrainian army won almost nothing in the counterattack.
Faced with this dilemma, Zelensky's strategic position gradually loosened. In September 2025, he said in an interview that "as long as Ukrainian territory does not completely fall under Russian control, it is victory." This redefinition of "victory" is seen by the outside world as a signal that Ukraine may accept territorial losses.
At the same time, the Ukrainian government began private negotiations with the EU to explore the possibility of negotiations based on the current front line.
In sharp contrast to Ukraine's predicament, Russia has demonstrated strong strategic determination and economic resilience. Although the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Russia's 2025 GDP growth to 0.6%, Russia has successfully responded to the pressure of sanctions by adjusting its economic structure.
In the first half of 2025, the Russian Federation's fiscal revenue fell by about 8% year-on-year, but by increasing the proportion of non-oil and gas revenue to 56%, it still maintained the budget execution rate above 95%. Militarily, Russia continues to innovate tactics to meet the challenges of the Ukrainian army.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
The future direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is full of uncertainty. But one thing is certain: Zelensky's plan to "fight for another three years" is not only a military war, but also a comprehensive game of politics, economy and diplomacy. In this game, Ukraine's fate will depend on its own resilience, Western support and changes in the international landscape. The ultimate loser may not only be Ukraine, but also those Western countries that have consumed a lot of resources and credibility in this war.