Donald Trump publicly stated on October 22, saying that he had almost decided to provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. The missile has a long range, more than 2000 kilometers, and high precision. It can be launched from multiple platforms on land, sea and air, pointing directly at key areas in western Russia, including Moscow and industrial areas. Trump's words are tantamount to pushing the situation to a new height, because the Storm Shadow missile in Ukraine's hands had a range of only 300 kilometers. The Tomahawk expanded the range of strike several times as soon as it came up, covering 80% of Russia's military bases and energy facilities.
Russia responded quickly. Vladimir Putin responded directly on October 23, saying that if Tomahawk missiles were used to attack Russian territory, Russia's retaliation would be very violent and even devastating. Putin didn't just say this casually. He regarded it as a red line and stressed that Russia would not bow under pressure. Putin mentioned at the Valdai Forum in Sochi that providing Tomahawk missiles would trigger a qualitative new stage of escalation and directly undermine Russia-US relations. Russian Duma official Alexei Zhuravlev also followed suit, saying that Russia has taken measures against the Tomahawk threat, and the S-350 and S-400 air defense systems have long been ready to shoot missiles and destroy launch points.
Trump, on the other hand, wanted to use missile aid as a lever, forcing Russia to make concessions. He spoke with Putin on October 17 for 2.5 hours, and Putin called on the phone to stop providing missiles, saying it would seriously damage relations and also jeopardize peace efforts. Trump later said in an interview that the U.S. inventory was limited, since 2022 only purchased 200 tanks, and could get out of the aid probably less than 50 tanks. He also said that the U.S. itself needs these missiles, and can not exhaust the inventory. After Trump's team assessment, it found that the use of tactical tanks required U.S. military personnel to participate, which is equivalent to dragging the U.S. directly into the conflict.
Russia’s economy has also slowed down and accelerated its shift to the east, shifting its focus on energy exports to Asian markets. India, as the largest buyer of Russian marine crude oil, continues to receive supplies, which weakened the effects of Western sanctions. The EU has had a crackdown due to the embargo on Russian liquefied natural gas, and some member states are concerned about energy shortages and weakened cohesion. Trump mentioned the effect of the sanctions to be seen after six months, which shows he recognizes that Russia’s bones are hard and bad to bite.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun responded to Trump's willingness to communicate with China on October 23rd, expressing his opposition to solving the problem through coercion and pressure. This poured cold water on Trump's strategy, because he wanted to pull China to influence Putin's decision-making. Putin emphasized that even if the Tomahawk missile causes damage, the Russian air defense system will adapt quickly and will not change the overall situation on the battlefield. Russian troops are advancing slowly but steadily in eastern Ukraine, and Putin believes missile aid won't change the big picture.
Trump's position swung, he once said could provide, and later expressed hope that the war would end without using such weapons. The Pentagon report showed that the stockpile of tacos committed to the U.S. Navy and other uses, provided to Ukraine is low feasibility. The U.S. may let European allies buy other long-range weapons supplies to Ukraine, but tacos are unlikely. Putin warned at the Valda Conference on October 2 that providing tacos is equivalent to the U.S. direct entry into the war, which will trigger a new level of confrontation, including Russian-US relations.
Within Russia, Putin faced people's patience and radical calls and demanded a full-scale wartime stage, but he did not choose the extreme path. Although the Western camp launched a large-scale economic strike, it was not monolithic. Trump threatened to increase sanctions, including financial and secondary sanctions, if Russia did not agree with Ukraine. Putin ignored these, and the Kremlin believed that Russia withstood sanctions, continued to recruit troops, and had the ability to fight for at least another year.
Ukrainian President Zelensky went to the White House, hoping to persuade Trump to provide a battle ax, but Trump refused, saying that Putin said the conflict was a special operation, not a war, that Ukraine needed to reach an agreement or faced destruction. Zelensky suggested that after the battle ax was no longer considered, Russia lost diplomatic interest. Trump posted on social media, saying that Putin had no reason to launch missiles on civilian areas, leaving him to suspect that Putin did not want a ceasefire, but was just on the lookout, and needed to deal with different methods, such as bank sanctions.
Russia has deployed more than 800 drones to bomb Ukraine, killing civilians in Kiev and damaging government buildings. When Trump was asked whether he was preparing to sanction Putin, he said he was ready, but no concrete action. Putin believed Trump’s threat was meaningless and Russia had the ability to respond. Trump told Zelensky that Putin didn’t like the idea of giving Ukraine thousands of tactics.
Russian lawmakers said if the U.S. provided a tactical axis, Russia would destroy the missiles and launch points and find ways to retaliate against the U.S. in response Putin noted that the tactical axis missiles needed U.S. intelligence support, equivalent to U.S. involvement. Trump's team considered sharing intelligence to Ukraine, targeting Russian long-range energy infrastructure, but did not push forward tactical axis aid after weighing.
The game revolves around sanctions and weapons, with each side’s statements being used as a tool of pressure. Trump wants to end the war quickly, but Putin has drawn a red line and missile aid has not been decided. Russia turns to exports in Asia, India continues to buy crude oil, and pipelines are working normally. EU member states discuss energy policy in Brussels, and differences expand.
Putin reiterated on Oct. 23 that if the Axis attack Russia, the response would shock everyone. Trump said the missiles were violently and precisely effective, but the United States could not depleting its own supply. Russian air defense systems deployed border and soldiers test equipment. Trump called European leaders to coordinate aid, but the Axis plans were postponed.