A thousand mountains.
Editor of Coca Cola.
In the last weekend of October, Kuala Lumpur became the focus of the global economic and trade community. The outcome of the fifth round of face-to-face consultations between the Sino-US economic and trade teams here can be said to have surprised everyone.
What the U.S. Trade Representative team brought was not only thick negotiation documents, but also a "substantive framework agreement." One of the most important achievements is that the United States has withdrawn the "100% tariff" sword that has been hanging over China.
At the same time, China has also shown flexibility and is expected to resume purchasing US soybeans. And adopt a more cautious attitude in rare earth export controls.
Although this trade war that has lasted for several years is still a little far from the end, But finally there was a fun turning point.
This article is from the authoritative report [Global Network] [Observer Network] (the detailed source is attached at the end of the article). in order to improve the readability of the article, the details may be colorful, please read reasonably, only for reference!
Smoke outside the negotiating table
The fifth round of face-to-face consultation between the two sides was held in the landmark building Murdika 118 in Kuala Lumpur. This choice is very symbolic in itself.
ka means "independence" in Malay,In this negotiation, both sides are seeking ways to become independent from the quagmire of the trade war.
The layout of the negotiation site may seem ordinary, but there are hidden mysteries. The number of members accompanying the US delegation has decreased by nearly one-third compared with the past.And the Chinese side still looks ordinary.
The most dramatic moment in the negotiations occurred the following afternoon. The originally deadlocked tariff issue, The turn suddenly came after a brief closed-door talks between the two sides.
The breakthrough in this negotiation is not accidental. Five face-to-face consultations since May this year,It was like a long marathon, and this time both seemed to have reached a moment in which they needed to breathe.
In particular, the previous aggressive attitude of the United States is in sharp contrast to the actual situation.Like a cat with a tooth-dancing nail, discovering that its toenails do not actually hurt each other's muscles, but may lose balance.
After the negotiations, the U.S. Trade Representative faced the media, The tone of voice obviously softened much.They did not disclose specific details to the media, but acknowledged that the two sides were "jointly concluding" some type of agreement.
This statement is in strong contrast to the unilateral threats issued by the United States three months ago. At that time, they were still vowing to impose tariffs on China at all costs.
The real reason why the United States succumbs
Why did the Trump administration manage to Moving from a wave of tariffs to sitting at a negotiating table?The story behind this is much more exciting than it appears on the surface.
In the vast farmland of the Midwestern United States, the mood of soybean farmers fell and rose with the rise of the trade war. Farmers in Iowa looked at the mountains of soybeans in their warehouses and were furious.
These “enriching codes” should have been on ships to China.Now sleeping here.
Now countless American soybeans can’t find a buyer, and the new season of harvest is coming. This seemingly ordinary crop of soybeans has become the most vivid footprint in the Sino-American trade war.
The data showed that China’s soybean imports from the United States dropped sharply this year, and at the same time, Soybean imports from Brazil hit a record high.This decline and rise reflect the resilience of the China market and the anxiety of American farmers.
What's even more interesting is that while the Sino-US negotiations were going on, Brazil's Agriculture Minister announced that it will continue to expand soybean planting area,This South American country has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the trade war.
If the soya problem makes it difficult for American farmers to sleep, Then rare earth is the Damocles sword hanging on the head of the U.S. high-tech industry.
China has an important position in the global supply chain for rare earth.When China announced that it would strengthen controls on rare earth exports, the response from the Ministry of Defense and technology companies was "wonderful."
An internal Pentagon report shows that the United States relies on imports from China for more than 90% of its high-purity rare earths. This means that if there is a problem with rare earth supply, From F-35 fighter jets to smartphones, the entire U.S. high-tech industry chain will be affected.
The United States is worried, Alternatives to rare earth supply are difficult to achieve in the short term.It's like when you are used to drinking water from a tap water pipe and suddenly ask you to dig a well. Not only is it time-consuming and laborious, but you also have to learn how to dig first.
In addition to economic and industrial factors, Domestic political pressure in the United States is also an important reason for the United States to return to the negotiating table.As domestic voices intensified, lawmakers who had previously supported the tough policy against China began to receive complaints from the electoral districts.
Farmers, manufacturers, retailers... the representatives of all industries are sending the same message to Washington: The trade war cannot continue.
U.S. netizens even joked, “When even the most hawkish lawmakers began to talk about ‘practical foreign policy’, You know that the power of voting has begun to develop.”
The game continues, but the rules change
Although the conclusion of the framework agreement looks like a relaxation of the Sino-US trade war, But this game of great powers is far from over.It's like temporary tranquility in a storm, rather than a clear day after rain.
During the negotiations, the United States made it clear that it would not change the export control measures against China's high-tech products. Especially in areas such as artificial intelligence chips, the U.S. restraint policy remains strict.
This is simply a "transparent ceiling"-- Allow the trade of ordinary products, but prevent the circulation of high technology.In this regard, China has demonstrated a flexible and pragmatic attitude that adheres to principles.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry said during a meeting with representatives of the U.S. business community: China is always willing to cooperate with the United States on the basis of mutual respect.These remarks were interpreted by the outside world as China's inclusive and cooperative policy in handling relations with American companies.
At the same time, the dispute between China and the United States about scientific and technological enterprises will also be an important topic for future negotiations. From TikTok to WeChat, these overseas representatives of China technology companies have become a new focus of the Sino-US game.
It is worth noting that this trade war is changing the rules of the global economic and trade landscape. More and more countries are seeking diversified trade partnerships and reducing their reliance on the single market.
Trade officials from ASEAN countries say they are pushing to upgrade trade agreements within the region, “Don’t put all the eggs in one basket” is becoming a consensus across countries.
For consumers and SMEs, The easing of the trade war is undoubtedly good news.The manager of an import and export company in Shanghai told reporters: "Our American customers have started inquiries, which was unthinkable three months ago."
However, a global supply chain restructuring is inevitable and more regionalized supply chain layouts may appear in the future. This is both a challenge and an opportunity.
conclusion
The smoke of the trade war has not yet completely dissipated, but people have begun to reflect.It's like a dance of two giants, both keeping their own rhythm and avoiding stepping on each other's feet.
U.S. bean farmers may finally be able to relax a little while Chinese export companies are also re-evaluating their international market layout. Only those small and medium-sized enterprises that suffered from the trade war are still watching carefully.
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Source of this article: [Global Network of Observers]