In 2024, the Ministry of Land and Resources released a set of itchy data: the oil reserves in the South China Sea are conservatively estimated to be between 23 billion and 30 billion tons. Optimistically, they can even reach 55 billion tons, and the natural gas reserves also reach 20 trillion cubic meters.
The South China Sea is a huge underground reservoir of oil, much wider than the Chongqing.
Since this is the case, so many “babies” are at the doorstep, why do we still have to import oil from the Middle East and Russia far away?
China is guarding the oil fields and not digging. What is it waiting for?
The South China Sea is a treasure house, but others dig more diligently than you
Oil in the South China Sea is not "hearsay". The exploration data of the Ministry of Land and Resources in 2024 makes it clear: the South China Sea is one of the world's four major submarine oil storage areas, with more than 250 proven oil fields, 12 of which are large oil fields, with a total area of more than 50 million hectares.
If compared with the Daqiang oil field, the potential of the South China Sea oil and gas resources is equivalent to the overlap of several Daqiang oil fields.
Relying on the 29 illegally occupied islands and reefs, Vietnam not only has "confidence" in the South China Sea, but has also really begun to dig for oil. In the Wan'an Beach incident in 2011, China fishermen were fishing in the South China Sea but were driven away by Vietnam ships. The scene was so tense that the gun almost went off.
Looking at Brunei, a pocket country, through cooperation with Shell, it has identified 8 oil fields within the nine-dash line of the South China Sea, making money while exploiting. Per capita GDP is as high as US$48,300.
Small countries get rich by stealing oil, while big countries guard oil fields but still have to buy oil from others. This contrast not only makes people feel uncomfortable, but also makes many people wonder: What is China waiting for?
There are three high walls behind it.
Although others are happily digging, if China really wants to start, it has to pass three thresholds first.
The first is technology.The oil in the South China Sea is not in shallow water fields, most of which are hidden in the depth of 300 meters or even kilometers of the ocean floor.
Like the "Deep Sea 1" natural gas field, the depth of the operation is more than 1500 meters, and the depth of the well is close to 5,000 meters.
From the technical report, China's deep-sea mining technology although progress is obvious, but overall still lag behind the U.S. western countries.
Although Huizhou 26-6 oil field, deep sea 1 project has had preliminary results, the overall scale is still very small, far from meeting the huge domestic demand.
The second is sovereignty. It is certainly an ironclad fact that the sovereignty of the South China Sea belongs to China. China adheres to the "nine-dash line" proposition, but neighboring countries, including the Philippines and Vietnam, with the support of the United States and the West, have always messed with China on the sovereignty issue of the South China Sea.
In order to suppress China, the United States and the West continue to use media public opinion to hype the term "South China Sea", trying to describe China's waters as international waters. Once you cooperate with a foreign company to mine, you are likely to be labeled as "joint development" and you will fall into a passive position if you are not careful.
So for us, China must go steadily on the issue of the South China Sea and cannot leave a speech to its opponents.
The third is the cost. Buy oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia, low cost, large quantity, and come quickly. The National Energy Agency's data for 2023 has shown that the average cost of domestic oil harvesting is much higher than the price of imported oil. On the one hand, it is "buy with money", on the other hand, it is "growing with life", which is clear at first glance.
Moreover, treating the oil fields in the South China Sea as "reserve resources", hoarding more foreign oil when the international situation is stable, and opening the door for self-mining at critical moments is also a strategic arrangement in itself.
Many people ask, Vietnam can dig, why can't we? It's like conflating shallow water with deep water. Those oil fields in Vietnam are basically in areas with shallow water and low technical difficulty, and they are dug by Western technology.
China to dig, not only have to handle the technology itself, but also to preserve sovereignty, calculate the cost, these three walls are placed there, not anyone can overcome.
What China is waiting for is not opportunity, but initiative
But don't worry, China is not "lying flat". In recent years, we have made great breakthroughs in technology.
The success of “Deep Sea 1” is a sign.
In a report in 2024, Xinhua that China was striving to large-scale commercial exploitation of deep sea oil and gas resources by 2030.This is not an empty word, but the results of research teams drilling one meter down.
At the same time, China is also trying "limited cooperation" with some countries, such as the cooperation model with Russia, which means that technology is complementary and sovereignty is not concessed. China is taking a "technological self-reliance" route, although slow but steady.
China has also been doing its homework in safeguarding sovereignty. After the 2016 international arbitration case, China strengthened patrols and legal negotiations in the South China Sea, clearly stating that "talks can be negotiated, but the nine-dash line cannot be moved." The development model of military-civilian integration is also advancing. For example, some new offshore platforms can not only extract oil but also serve as "maritime outposts", achieving multiple goals at one stroke.
As for its energy strategy, China has long since stopped betting on oil. On the one hand, we continue to sign long-term oil and gas agreements with the Middle East and Russia to ensure stable supply; on the other hand, the deployment of new energy, new materials, and new transportation methods is also accelerating.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission also publicly stated that the short-term rise in oil prices may be a little "painful", but from the perspective of national security, this is a necessary price.
If China doesn't exploit the South China Sea, it's not because it's afraid of anyone, let alone because it's incapable, but because it has to wait for an opportunity, an opportunity to fully grasp the initiative. Once the technology is mature, the situation is clear, and the cost is controllable, the treasures in the South China Sea will no longer sleep.
Why is China still buying oil in the South China Sea?The answer is not complicated.Technically, we are still strong; sovereignty, we can’t compromise; economically, we have a big debt.
Neighboring countries get rich by "stealing oil", but it's just the excitement in front of them, but there are many risks behind them. China's choice to wait and see for the time being is a calm layout and is accumulating strength for the future initiative.
The reference information:
Southern Weekend: “Out of the Sea” New Dynamics: How New Land Sea Channels Change Western Cities?