Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a big U-turn at the ASEAN Summit this time. Originally, everyone thought he would fly to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in person, but he chose to attend online. This happened at the 47th ASEAN Summit to be held from October 26 to 28, 2025, which happened to be the opening day of the summit.
The ASEAN Summit is the annual event of the Alliance of Southeast Asian Nations, where the leaders of ten member states and representatives of dialogue partners gather to discuss trade, security and regional cooperation. President Trump personally attended and witnessed the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, which made the summit an international focus.
Modi’s decision was announced around October 23, when the summit was about to begin.Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar confirmed on social media that Modi explained on the phone that he could not go personally because of the lightning festival in India and the preparation for local elections.The lightning festival is an important festival in India, and falls around October 20, 2025, but the subsequent Chartpurja festival lasts from October 25 to 28, and the summit time overlaps.
A spokesman for the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed that this was based on realistic considerations on the domestic agenda. Trump’s journey began with his arrival in Kuala Lumpur on October 25 and he was welcomed by Malaysia, including security deployment and official reception. He spoke at the opening ceremony, highlighting the U.S. role in the Indo-Pacific region and pushing the trade agreement to balance China’s influence.
India, as a dialogue partner, has always regarded ASEAN as the core of its “Action to the East” policy, promoting economic and trade ties through the summit, with trade in excess of $120 billion. Modi has participated in ASEAN-related meetings almost every year since 2014, he visited Bangkok in 2019 and also virtually during the outbreak in 2020 and 2021.
Indian media such as The Times of India and New India Express quickly followed up on reports and pointed out that this may be related to the US-India trade friction. Opposition Congress Party leader Ramesh publicly criticized on October 23, saying Modi was trying to avoid pressure from Trump. The Congress Party also mentioned that the last time Modi completely missed a similar summit was in 2022, and this time he chose the virtual model made people feel like he was avoiding embarrassment.
The summit agenda includes discussions on disputes over the South China Sea, the Myanmar crisis and regional economic integration. China has sent a high-level delegation to promote the upgrading of the free trade zone, and the trade volume has exceeded US$900 billion, making India worry that its share in Southeast Asia will be squeezed. In his speech, Trump criticized countries that rely on Russian energy. Although he did not name them, he clearly targeted buyers like India. The Indian delegation was on site to promote a review of the free trade agreement with ASEAN, with the goal of increasing bilateral trade to US$200 billion.
Modi’s virtual speech focuses on the digital economy and supply chain cooperation, but the absence of physical meetings means fewer opportunities for informal exchanges, such as shaking hands in the corridor and private chats. Diplomatic analyst Sahedev said in the interview that this reflects India’s finding a balance between U.S. and Russia and avoiding concessions during the sensitive period. During the summit, ASEAN called for a peaceful solution in the South China Sea, and Trump pushed U.S. to invest in Southeast Asia and reduce dependence on China.
India participates in these topics through an online model, but the physical absence regrets some ASEAN countries, believing that this weakens India's influence in the region. India's stock market fluctuated slightly after Modi's decision was announced, and export stocks were affected by tariff pressure. Opposition parties took the opportunity to attack government diplomacy, saying Modi feared Trump's blunt style. Trump met with the Prime Minister of Malaysia to discuss bilateral trade but did not mention India. Overall, Modi's move seems to be a cautious choice, prioritizing domestic stability and negotiation space.
Trump has always loved his interaction with Modi in public, but every time he touched the nail. On October 15, 2025, Trump said Modi promised India would stop buying oil from Russia. The next day, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied, saying it wasn't. On October 16, Trump repeated, saying Modi promised in the phone to gradually reduce purchases. India then responded, and no such conversation took place.
On October 17, Trump emphasized in front of the media that this was a condition for reducing tariffs. Indian Trade Minister Goyal stated on October 24 that India will not rush to sign an agreement to restrict trade. These denials frustrate Trump's claims. In the past, similar incidents occurred when Trump said in 2019 that he would mediate on the Indian, Pakistan and Kashmir issue. India immediately clarified that the call was not involved.
The core of the trade negotiations was the U.S. tariff of 50% on Indian goods, which began in August 2025, half of which was a punishment for India buying Russian oil. This affected India's textile and pharmaceutical exports. India is the world's largest oil importer, Russia accounts for 40%, and prices are low and supply stable. Goyal emphasized energy diversification, not entirely relying on a single source. The U.S. proposed tariffs to be reduced to 15-16%, but to limit India's Russian oil. Modi's absence at the summit was seen as avoiding concessions on the spot and keeping negotiations equal. Trump's statement to India's pressure, India publicly denied its holding position.
Trade consultations are still continuing, and the United States considers releasing the draft after the summit. India insists on energy independence, and imports of oil from Russia will continue to rise in 2025. Trump said on October 20 that if India does not reduce its tariffs, it will maintain high tariffs. India responded that sovereignty determines partners. Modi virtual attended the summit, highlighting India-ASEAN cooperation and avoiding direct confrontation. Trump's image has been damaged by denial, and Modi strengthens Indian independence. After the summit, the two sides may advance the agreement through other channels, and India will gain some space.
The trade dispute between India and the United States is not new, but this ASEAN summit has put the conflict on the table. Modi chose not to visit the scene in person, actually sending Trump a signal that India has its own bottom line and will not be easily suppressed by tariffs. Russian oil is a real strategic resource for India, with affordable prices and reliable supply, especially when the global energy market is highly volatile.
The Trump administration has raised tariffs to 50% since August, half of which are punitive tariffs, just because India didn't listen to advice and continued to buy Russian oil. This incident has caused Indian export enterprises to complain bitterly, and the competitiveness of textiles and pharmaceuticals, the main products, has plummeted. The Indian government has repeatedly emphasized that energy policy gives priority to national interests and will not change course because of external pressure. At the negotiating table, the United States offered conditions to reduce tariffs to 15%-16%, but India had to gradually reduce Russian oil imports.
An official from the Indian Ministry of Trade said on October 22 that the two sides are close to an agreement, but the details still have to be polished. Modi's virtual participation avoided being forced into the palace by Trump in Kuala Lumpur. Trump has a strong style and loves to speak in public. As soon as he said the contents of the previous phone calls, India had to come out and clarify it, which made everyone look ugly. After the statement on October 15th, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the next day that the Congressional Party took the opportunity to attack Modi, saying that he was led by Trump's nose. In fact, India has not stopped its efforts to diversify its energy, signed long-term contracts with Middle Eastern countries, and is also developing local resources, but Russia's share is difficult to reduce in the short term.
The ASEAN Summit is a multilateral platform. India was present through Jaishankar to maintain its sense of presence. At the same time, Modi made an online speech, emphasizing strategic partnership. This move gives India more bargaining chips in negotiations, so there is no need to rush to compromise. Trump witnessed the ceasefire in Thailand and Cambodia at the summit, showing the mediation role of the United States in Asia, but did not let go of the pressure on India.
If the future agreement is agreed, India's exports can breathe, but energy independence is the bottom line.This reminds us that international relations are a game of interest, India's hand played steadily and did not let Trump dominate.