On October 22, local time, the international situation muted, and European and American sanctions against Russia were again escalated.
Denmark, the rotating presidency of the European Union, announced that member states had reached an agreement on the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Then the U.S. Treasury Department also announced the imposition of sanctions on Russia's two major oil giants. Europe and the United States coordinated pressure, and Russia faced unprecedented pressure.
The EU sanctions could be so severe that the energy sector becomes a focus target.
For the first time, Russian liquefied natural gas imports were completely banned, and the Russian crude oil price cap was also lowered to US$47.6 per barrel.
You know, although the proportion of Russian natural gas in EU imports has dropped significantly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, LNG trade still brings more than 15 billion euros in annual revenue to Russia. This ban is undoubtedly a fatal blow to Russia's energy trade.
In addition, Rosneft and Gazprom are also facing a comprehensive trading ban. 117 oil tankers belonging to Russia's "shadow fleet" have been included in the sanctions list. These ships have previously been used to transport Russian oil to evade Western sanctions, and now they are also unable to escape the fate of being sanctioned.
Sanctions in the financial sector should not be underestimated. The European Union has expanded its transaction ban on Russian financial institutions and included cryptocurrency platforms in the scope of sanctions for the first time in an attempt to block the possibility of Russia circumventing restrictions through emerging financial channels.
The U.S. sanctions are also directed at the pillar of Russia's economy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent announced sanctions on Russian Oil Company and Lukoil Company. The crude oil exports of these two companies account for nearly 50% of Russia's total exports. Assets within the United States will be frozen and U.S. citizens will be prohibited from trading with them.
It is worth mentioning that the implementation of the sanctions plan was not easy, and Slovakia’s position shift was crucial.As a EU country with a high energy dependence on Russia, 70% of Slovakia’s annual natural gas imports come from Russia, and with 500 million euros of Russian gas transit revenue annually, it has repeatedly objected to the sanctions scheme.
However, after the EU promised to meet a series of demands such as energy price subsidies, adjustment of emission reduction targets and support for the automobile industry, Slovakia finally agreed to join the sanctions camp, clearing the final obstacle for the adoption of the plan.
In recent years, Russia has responded to Western restrictions by expanding the Asian market, and in 2024 its LNG exports to Europe will still reach 544,5 billion cubic meters, again becoming Europe's second-largest natural gas supplier.
For the EU, a comprehensive ban on Russian LNG imports may further push up energy prices. Currently, the wholesale price of natural gas in the EU is close to five times that of the United States, and the cost of industrial electricity is 2.5 times that of the United States, which will weaken Europe's economic competitiveness in the long run.
At the same time as Putin responded, China has also launched a series of cooperation with Russia in the economic field, which is seen as a “grand gift” from China to Russia.
In terms of energy cooperation, the China-Russia East Line natural gas pipeline has a total investment of 2.8 trillion yuan, transporting 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year. Russia has also lowered the price of natural gas to 30% lower than in Europe.
In addition, Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation signed four documents to further expand the areas of cooperation, including projects such as "Power of Siberia II" and "Eastern Alliance" pipeline through Mongolia, and the gas supply capacity has also been improved.
As the winter approaches, energy supply stability and price volatility will be the key variables to test the EU’s sanctions decision, and let’s see who will be able to withstand this winter.
The international situation is unpredictable, the impact of European and American sanctions on Russia continues to ferment, and all parties face different challenges and opportunities in this game.