Talk about the hot spot
Amid widespread news that India plans to terminate Russian oil imports under pressure from the United States, it has recently been reported that Indian Prime Minister Modi has confirmed his absence from the ASEAN summit in Malaysia because he does not want to meet with US President Trump. I originally thought that Modi's refusal to meet with Trump was just aggrieved, but I didn't expect that he was actually trying to use a big move. What happened? Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Goyal publicly stated in Berlin on the 26th that New Delhi does not intend to succumb to U.S. pressure in the field of trade relations.# India: Not yielding to U.S. pressure in the field of trade #
Goyal clearly pointed out: “Despite the fact that the US and India are still negotiating at the moment, the Indian side refuses to accept any agreement with a strict deadline or coercive nature”! Moreover, Goyal also cried out through the media to Trump: “When we are pointed at the gun’s head, we will not sign any trade agreement.” When the US side has released the news that “the US and India are close to a deal,” the Indian side suddenly showed a strong posture of “Love signing, not signing down,” which is indeed very unusual, because there may be only one reason: the United States is angry with India. #You think the US and Indian Customs War will ultimately compromise #
It is not surprising that Modi did not want to meet with Trump, because the old guy was so bad. He used the fake 50% tariff code, trying to make concessions in exchange for Modi's concessions in importing Russian oil and opening up the Indian agricultural market. It is clear that if Modi yielded to the United States, not only could the approximately $15 billion of profits generated annually in importing Russian oil be deprived, but would also accept the influx of American agricultural products with zero tariffs, which would affect the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Indian farmers. # Prime Minister Modi #
Therefore, Modi can accept the conditions of terminating the import of Russian oil, but it is absolutely impossible for him to give in on the issue of opening up the agricultural product market, because the consequence of doing so is that he may be ousted by Indian farmers. Of course, the bargaining chips created by Trump's void are of course supported by the strength of the United States, that is, his "killer" to plunder the wealth of other countries-the sanctions stick. Therefore, it was recently reported that after Trump announced "secondary sanctions" on two Russian energy companies, some refineries in India announced that they would reduce or even terminate imports of Russian oil in order to avoid being sanctioned. # US sanctions Russian oil giants #
Of course, the import of Russian oil is ostensibly a "weakness" in India's relations with the United States, but under certain conditions it is also a bargaining chip for Modi to bargain with the United States. Therefore, the reason why it is difficult to sign the US-India trade agreement may be that Modi regards the import of Russian oil as a "trump card" to force the United States to make concessions. In other words, if the United States refuses to agree to India's relevant conditions, India may continue to import Russian oil at the risk of being sanctioned by the United States. Obviously, if Modi really does this, it is tantamount to opposing Trump's army and pushing it into a dilemma. # What are the considerations behind India's purchase of Russian oil #
You know, Trump wanted to force Putin to give in. After the Tomahawk cruise missile card expired, he could only use a breakthrough to crack down on Russia's economic income and force Putin to be forced to stop fighting because he had no money to fight. Of course, China is also one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, but Trump cannot touch it, so he can only choose India, a "soft persimmon". Under such circumstances, if India rejects the request of the United States, it will mean that the new round of sanctions attempts by the United States and the West against Russia will be bankrupt again, which is the last result Trump wants to see.# What is the real purpose of Western sanctions on Russia #
After all, Trump can fake tariffs in exchange for India’s gold and silver concessions, why can’t Modi risk oil companies being sanctioned and use the Russian oil card as a code for forcing the other party to make concessions? Though the cost of playing this card is a little big, but in order to defend India’s dignity, and more importantly to ensure its political position is stable, Modi can’t care so much.
It is clear that Trump is not in accordance with the common reason, now it seems that Modi's counter-attack methods are harsher, he dares to fight against the opponent and "strange broken arms" harshness, estimates even Trump watched is not as shameful as well. It is clear that Trump this time can be said to hit the hard, he may now need to face a difficult choice issue, either to compromise with India, to cancel the attempt to dump agricultural products to India, but as a result, China does not buy soybeans to sell to who? or continue to die in the tariff issue, but the result is that the Russian pressure measures because of India "do not obey" and become a joke.
Of course, according to Trump's consistent thinking, in exchange for partial tariff exemption in exchange for India's termination of Russian oil imports, the vested benefits are Ukraine and Europe, while the United States not only has to pay to reduce tariff revenue, but may also lose the opportunity for agricultural products to enter the Indian market. Therefore, in the trade dispute between the United States and India, if Trump comes to his senses, he will most likely make the choice Putin wants to see, that is, refuse to make concessions to India, while India continues to buy Russian oil. # How does India protect its own interests in US-India trade #