[Foreword]

For more than three years, the gunfire has finally begun to weaken. The smoke of smoke on the battlefield in Ukraine is slowly dissipating。
Putin did not say "lost", but he did not want to fight again.
Because it seems to him, The land that should have been taken has been obtained and can be handed in.

Today, the territory controlled by the Russian army is equivalent to that of Portugal, with rich resources, stable strategy and weak public opinion.
What Putin wants is not a "complete victory", but a "phased achievement" that can stabilize the country and be written into history.

The question has changed from "can you fight" to-
"Is there any point in fighting?"

1. From "Blitzkrieg" to "Brake War": Putin's war script has changed

When the war started in February 2022, Russia shouted "de-Nazization, de-militarization" and prepared for a "blitzkrieg."
The objective is clear: Three days in Kiev, ending the war in January.

But three and a half years later, Ukraine is still there, and NATO is not intimidated.
It's not that the Russian army doesn't want to fight, it's just that it can't fight anymore.

Since 2025, the Russian offensive has slowed significantly.
From Kharkiv to Zaporozhye, the front line is almost fixed.
Putin is no longer seeking to seize the whole of Ukraine, but instead to “repair the line of defense, build the battlefield”. Maintain the vested territory and stabilize the results。

This is not "soft-hearted", but a rational calculation.
According to the US assessment, Russian casualties may be close to one million；
Military spending accounted for 9.7 percent of GDP, which was close to the pre-Soviet collapse alert line.

The domestic industry was crushed by the war, the ruble was devalued, prices were rising, and ordinary Russians were paying a heavy price for this “great operation.”

So Putin started telling another story-
From “complete victory” to “reasonable stop loss”.

As early as May 2024, he publicly proposed for the first time." Negotiating a ceasefire on the current front”，
Outside is wind, inside is stairs.

Putin understands that war wants results, not processes.
If you can keep the land and stabilize people's hearts, you will win.

The land, not just the land.

The Russian army currently controls more than 110,000 square kilometers of territory--
Although it only accounts for one-fifth of Ukraine, it is the "most valuable piece."

Donetsk, Luhansk, Herson, Zaporizhne, Crimea——
Taken together, these regions are the economic backbone of Ukraine.

Energy is：
Donbas owns 90% of Ukraine's coal reserves, with a reserve value of more than US$12 trillion.
Lithium and rare earth are the lifeline of modern industry.

The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, which once supplied a quarter of Ukraine's electricity, is now integrated into the Russian power grid.
Energy gains not only make up for the gap of Western sanctions, but also "feed back" military spending.

agriculture：
The Kherson Plain is the granary of Ukraine.
After Russia took over, wheat exports increased.
The Black Sea Coast. Port of MariupolBecome Russia's new export channel.

Which means-
Russia has a stable highway for foreign trade.

Geographically：
The newly occupied areas connect Russia mainland and Crimea,
Form a "strategic lock",
Firmly lock the corridor of NATO's eastward expansion and also lock the outlet to the Black Sea.

This land is not just a symbolic "fruit of victory",
and more A national-level asset that combines energy, food and geography。

So Putin stopped, not losing, but winning enough.

3. Public opinion has changed: from "great action" to "enough"

By the fourth year of the war, the atmosphere in Russia began to shift.

In 2022, polls show that 70% of Russians support "special military operations";
By the autumn of 2025, the support rate will drop to 60%.
But only 27% really want to "continue fighting".

This is Putin's clearest political signal.

Economic difficulties are making people breathless:

Oil and natural gas export revenue fell by 14%;
The price has tripled.
Foreign investment withdrew and the unemployment rate soared;
The family members continued to protest the petition.

Under such circumstances,"continuing to fight" is no longer a national pride, but a burden on people's livelihood.

As a result, the Kremlin's propaganda tone changed:
There were fewer artillery on television, more schools, hospitals, groceries.
Putin began to emphasize "reconstruction", "development" and "recovery",
Promote passports, modify teaching materials, and attract investment in occupied areas.
The occupied land should be packaged as "the historical justice of returning to the motherland".

This logic is simple and effective:
“We have not fought, we have fought, we have been able to raise people, be able to use, be able to stabilize the country.”

For 100 million Russians,
That 18% of the land is the “political ancestry” of war.

4. Putin's calculation: stabilize the situation and build momentum through negotiations

Putin's ultimate goal is not to "eliminate Ukraine" now;
But let it. The battlefield becomes a negotiating table, and the results become chips。

At the beginning of 2025, Russia's negotiation conditions are:

Ukraine recognizes occupied territories to Russia.
Never joined NATO.
The size of the army is halved.

This is basically equivalent to having Ukraine acknowledge its “defeat.”
Zelensky, of course, did not do it, and the Western countries also verbally supported him “unquestionably.”

But here's the thing-
The aid from the West has not survived.

The United States will reduce aid to Ukraine by 23% in 2024.
Distortions within Europe:
France advocated a cooling of the battlefield, Germany was more radical, and Hungary directly refused to participate in the war.

Trump openly persuaded Zelensky: Change the peace.”。

This series of actions confirms Putin’s judgment:
--Time is on Russia's side.

He can hold back, but Ukraine and the West cannot hold back.

5. Freezing is not peace

The current Ukrainian battlefield, on the surface "stable", can actually explode at any time.

Both Russia and Ukraine are building new defense lines;
The bombing of Mariupol, the spy operation of Kharkov, the assassination of underground resistance groups,
All indicate that the front line is "cold", but the fire is still there.

The so-called “frozen conflict” is more like one. Suspension keys, not stop keys.

History has long written down this script:

After the Georgian war, the "freeze" for five years again fought;
After the Crimean crisis, "freezing" eight years and burning again;
This time, it's just a larger-scale "slow cooking".

Russia cannot withdraw, Ukraine cannot withdraw, and the West cannot withdraw.
Therefore, this state of "maintaining the status quo" is itself the foreshadowing for the next round of conflict.

Winning land, how long can it be stable?

Putin's "stop the war" strategy also has hidden worries.

In the short term, he has stabilized the political situation:
Domestic protests have cooled down, military spending has been controlled, and the propaganda system has been fully mobilized.

But in the long run,
Structural problems in Russia are accumulating:

The economy remains overly dependent on energy and military industry.
Sanctions in the field of science and technology have stagnated.
severe loss of youth;
Trade dependence on China and India is increasing.

This "self-sufficiency" balance is easily out of balance once the external environment changes again.

After the war, reconstruction was costly.
% of the infrastructure in the Donbas area was destroyed,
Hershon and Zaporozhye, a large number of cities with water disruption.
These accounts will eventually be counted on Moscow’s head.

Putin won the land, but he may not win the future.

7. Conclusion: The war is not over yet, it has just changed its form

Putin’s goal has turned from “taking Ukraine” to “stabilizing Russia.”
He knew that A further step forward could be the abyss.
So I chose to stop and turn this 18% land into a "historical achievement".
Give an account to the country, the people and himself.

But there is no winner in this war.
Ukraine has lost its resource lifeline;
Russia has lost its international space.
Europe has lost its energy security,
The world is a dangerous “freezing war zone.”

This war may be temporarily stopped.
But it leaves geo-confrontation, economic crackdown, and national hatred.
It is much harder to extinguish than tobacco.

War is no longer a battle between tanks and missiles,
It is a long-term consumption war of diplomacy, public opinion, energy and science and technology.

For Putin, that 18% of the land is a “symbol of victory”;
For Europe, this 18% of the land is a "security nightmare";
For the world, this 18% land is a * * "full stop that has not been finished" * *.

References:

Economic Observatory: 3 years of conflict, what should the Russian Ukrainian elite reflect (2025-02-24)
Beijing Daily: The war between Russia and Ukraine has not been extinguished for two years, but things are becoming clearer and clearer (2024-02-22)
The conflict war has no winners, it is time to jointly press the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to stop (2023-02-24)
The New York Times: A Review of the Third Anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict (2025-02-24)

What do you think?
Putin, is this “reason-stop” or “passive handshake”?
Can this "unfinished war" really be frozen?
Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to chat about the "pause button" of this geopolitical battle.