Reference News Network reported on October 27 According to the Taiwan Wind media website on October 25, the U.S. "Time" double weekly published on 23rd an analysis article written by Washington think tank "Defense Priority" organization Asian project head Goldstein "The United States must beware of Taiwan's reckless leaders", pointing out the situation in the Taiwan Sea is gradually unstable, and the heart of this storm is Riyadh. The author called Riyadh "reckless leader", refers to Taiwan as "the most dangerous point of explosion".

Goldstein wrote on X: "It seems that my recent column in Time bi-weekly magazine stabbed a hornet's nest. Friends and colleagues in Taiwan Province, it's time to face the reality. They need to understand that Americans have had enough of getting involved in these'endless wars' over other people's household affairs." He also said that Americans are unlikely to go to war to save troubled Taiwan Province ¡­.

The U.S. Secretary of State warns to be careful of ¡°irresponsible¡± Riyadh (data map)

In another article entitled ¡°Locking Taiwan: One-China Principles and Stability on Both Straits,¡± Goldstein said: ¡°In order to avoid a catastrophic U.S.-China war, the United States must take decisive steps to return to strictly abide by one-China policy, while making Washington¡¯s elite more clear that the United States has not pledged to fight for Taiwan.¡±

He pointed out that in the long run, a more comprehensive strategy is needed to establish a more stable and internally consistent China policy.

Extended reading

Media: Zheng Liwon is on the spot, and the likelihood of risking increases

On October 18, the election of the Chairman of the National Party was over, and Zheng Liwei was elected with a majority of votes, and will officially take office as the new Chairman of the Chinese National Party on November 1.

Combined with the statements before the election of Zheng Liu, as well as the reports and comments of the sea of media on the island, I think that we can use the classic lyrics of the Kyoto drama "Muhin Yong Cheng" to describe Zheng Liu's pride and mood since this period:

"I suddenly heard the sound of golden drums and painting horns, which aroused me to break the heavenly gate and top gun. I think that peach blossoms were immediately majestic, and the enemy's blood splashed pomegranate skirts. How can an inch of land belong to others when I have a lifetime? What's the clown? I can stop millions of soldiers with one sword."

Zheng Liwen put on the momentum of "one sword can block a million soldiers". Will Lai Qingde be so scared that he will tremble?

Of course not.

Chen Liuwen elected president of the National Party (data map)

The author's prediction is that after Zheng Liwen goes into battle, if the Kuomintang stabilizes its position or expands its results in the county and mayor election in 2026, thus greatly increasing the possibility of winning the 2028 general election, then the probability of Lai Ching-te taking risks in 2028 will be greatly increased.

The analysis is as follows:

First of all, Zheng Liwen's rectification of order in cross-strait discussions is a blow to the "Taiwan independence" forces.

According to the report of the mainland authoritative media, in response to the message of the mainland, Zheng Liwei clearly stated that "the two sides of the Strait reached their respective consensus in 1992 in the oral way to express the consensus of adhering to the principle of one China".In the memory of the author, it is difficult to see in recent years the President of the National Party clearly put one China principle and the "92 Consensus" to the equal.

This is the first step, and it is clear at the beginning. Then, Zheng Liwen will make her cross-strait discussion concrete and step-by-step. The author analyzes that the specific content of Zheng Liwen's cross-strait discussions is roughly as follows: under the premise of the one China principle, first oppose "Taiwan independence," and then promote cross-strait exchanges at all levels, cultivate the foundation for peaceful reunification, and thereby achieve reunification in a way acceptable to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

If Zheng Liwen's cross-strait exposition can be accepted by mainstream public opinion in Taiwan, or if he takes a step back, the number of Taiwanese people who accept this exposition will increase significantly, this will be a drastic blow to the "Taiwan independence" forces, including the Lai Ching-te clique.

Secondly, Zheng Liwen and Lu Xiuyan's one-on-one tactics brought a huge threat to Lai Qingde.

On November 1, Zheng Liwen dressed up and went into battle. Lu Xiuyan will wait until the Taiwan County Mayor Election at the end of November 2026 before going out to fight in the 2028 general election.

Zheng Liwen fought for a year first, with Lu Xiuyan supporting him. Then Lu Xiuyan went to war and spent a year fighting for the general election. Zheng Liwen led the whole party to support it. It is refreshing for women generals to go on battle. The tactics of the two women generals taking turns to go on battle and support each other are unprecedented in Taiwan's political arena. This kind of tactic brings huge challenges to Lai Qingde.

LuÐãÑà or Again out of the mountain campaign 2028 general election (data map)

Third, in the face of the crisis, how will Lai Ching-te take risks?

Zheng Liwen is also worried that Lai Ching-te will take risks. In an interview with Zhongtian News, she believes that in order to win the 2028 general election, Lai Ching-te may follow the example of former South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue and declare martial law in Taiwan.

Among the various risky measures Rakhine could take, the most unlikely is order.

This is because several factors stipulated in the mainland's "Anti-Secession Law" for resolving the Taiwan issue by non-peaceful means include the occurrence of "major incidents leading to Taiwan's separation from China" on Taiwan Island. If Lai Qingde implements martial law, it will be a major event that is certain. If he dares to do this, the mainland will definitely take action. He doesn't have the courage!

Ra'i Qingdao can do nothing but risk both internal and external collisions for the purpose of winning the election.

Simulation of Chen¡¯s shooting at the time created a self-defeated incident that inspired the sympathy and support of the Greens and middle voters.

Externally, repeat the routine of capturing Ke Wenzhe, and attack the opponent in a framed way. For example, if there is a blue-white cooperation in the 2028 general election, and the People's Party (White Camp) sends someone as a deputy, Lai Ching-te may attack this deputy.

The author has repeatedly commented that among the leaders of the Taiwan region in the past, Rai Qingdao is the worst and the most stupid of the level. At a critical point, he is likely to get rid of the risk. His foolishness and risk, not necessarily brilliant, but must be scary and toxic. From this point of view, the National Party and the People's Party, indeed, need high protection.

(Author of The King)