There is a view that the Russian-Ukrainian war led to the world map and order restructuring, bringing the world back to the hostile pattern of the East, and China as the largest beneficiary of the Soviet Union's collapse, eastern eastern relaxation, and globalization era, was pushed by this battlefield back to the western counterpart.This understanding is actually somewhat biased.Because the "Western relationship" is not a relationship of the whole and the whole, but a combination of multiple cross-sectional relations, specifically, it includes "Sino-American relations", "Chinese-European relations", "Chinese-Russian relations", "US-Russian relations", "EU-Russian relations" and "US-European relations" in a total of six dimensions.Next, we will unfold one by one.Sino-US relations have crossed a critical point as early as 2018.2017 yearOn December 18, the White House releasedTrump'sThe first "National Security Strategy Report". In this report, the United States defined China as a "revisionist" country for the first time, regarded China as a "strategic competitor" of the United States, and emphasized strengthening the protection of U.S. economic interests on issues such as economy, trade and investment.Earlier this year, the trade war broke out.On October 4, 2018, then-Vice President Pence presented a systematic explanation of China’s policy at the Hudson Institute in Washington.
At that time, it coincided with a confrontation between the Chinese and American navies in the Nansha Islands. The US guided missile destroyer "Decatur" almost collided with the Chinese navy's "Lanzhou" ship，Therefore, once Burns's speech was published, it was immediately labeled an "Iron Curtain Speech" for the new Cold War. Some media said that "it sounded like a clarion call in a new Cold War."On November 14th, 2018, when Mr. Kissinger visited Beijing, he attended a dinner. During the dinner, he used a "new paradigm" to define the future of Sino-US relations and concluded that "there will never be a return to the past."Similar to Kissinger's concerns, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson also delivered a speech at the Singapore Economic Forum that year, systematically explaining the pessimistic prospects for the Sino-US trade war.Paulson saw blood.landPointed out: "If a feasible consensus cannot be reached to resolve the current dispute, the economic iron curtain will descend on the world."
Simply put, even the most optimistic friend of the Sino-U.S. relationship could not imagine how much better the Sino-U.S. relationship would be if the Russian-Ukrainian war did not break out.More extreme speculation is that the so-called "West is not bright in the east", if the contradiction is not in the western strategic gap line (Eastern Europe) outbreak, it is likely to be at the eastern strategic fault line (The first island chain) When the outbreak breaks out, it will be China who will rush to the front line.There are many disputes around China's Taiwan Sea, Fishing Island, South China Sea, and the United States wants to light up one or two is not difficult.In December 2020, the China-Europe Comprehensive Investment Agreement, which followed long negotiations, was finally reached.In this agreement, China has released unprecedented market access conditions, including lifting technology transfer restrictions, transparent service subsidies, allowing EU companies to enter China's standard setting, gradually canceling joint venture requirements in the automotive sector, allowing the establishment of wholly foreign-owned hospitals, and so on.
Some of the key clauses are said to have been personally drafted at the top level, and then-German Prime Minister Angela Merkel was also in the final moments of her political career—also the last moment of Germany’s rotating EU presidency—.More overtimeTo promote this agreement, the two sides will make their utmost efforts.
Unfortunately, a mutually beneficial trade agreement, to some extent, even that China gave to Europe for the purpose of consolidating geopolitical relations, was finally frozen due to some off-site factors.What is the “external factor”?From March 18 to 19, 2021, the high-level strategic dialogue between China and the United States was held in Anchorage, and the content, meaning and classic words of this conversation are sure to be well understood and not to be discussed here.Immediately after the Anchorage conversation, Biden sent Blinken to Europe and Campbell to Japan to make every effort to repair the damaged alliance of Trump.Brinkman visited Europe for four days.amongstOn March 22, the European Union and other countries announced sanctions against Chinese officials in Xinjiang.Compared to the European and American direct sanctions on several senior Chinese administrative officials, the countermeasures proposed by China are aimed at individual members of the European Parliament and scholars, but the EU has taken a great deal of play, and the European Parliament has indefinitely postponed the review of the China-Europe Comprehensive Investment Agreement.Note that this is the first half of 2021. If we blame Russia for the decline in Sino-US and China-EU relations, I am afraid Putin will not recognize it.In fact, not only did the Biden administration not put pressure on Russia at that time, it wanted to "unite" Russia as well. The most obvious move was to hold the US-Russia summit in June 2021. The two men's expressions are as above.In previousNATO isDuring the Brussels SummitThere was no breakthrough in the issue of Ukraine joining NATO, and the communiqué issued after the meeting only reiterated thatThe 2008 Bucharest SummitThe position that Ukraine will become a member of NATO one day in the future, but there was no mention of specific issues such as the timetable.On June 16, Biden visited Putin after the opening of the NATO summit in Geneva, Switzerland.After some diplomatic mediation, Russia withdrew some troops stationed in border areas, and the situation eased for a time.But Biden is the typical “say a set, do a set,” and between October and November 2021, Russia discovered that the United States had no substantial constraints on Ukraine’s actions.At that time, about half of the main force of the Ukrainian army was deployed to the Donbas area to engage in a medium-scale battle with pro-Russian militia. The Russian army was in a sense to "save the situation."Coupled with the hasty withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul like a gust of wind, and the Biden administration's international image plummeted, showing signs of weakness and hesitation. Therefore, Putin made the decision to solve Ukraine once and for all.All in all, as long as the United States and Ukraine do not compromise, Russia's choices are nothing more than the followingthree：Scheme 1，Without any reaction,laissez-faireUkrainianCompletely fall to the West and even join NATO;The Program 2，Take the initiative to change the regime in Kiev；The Program 3，Disciplinary attack。Among them, option C in Putin's eyes is the same as option A, because it will not solve the problem of losing Ukraine, and even accelerate the loss of Ukraine, but only "take a breath."FinallyPutin chose Plan B, which has the highest risks and the greatest benefits, that is, a plan that can completely solve the problem.It's not difficult to understand,The main actors in the case of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war are Ukraine, Russia and the United States, and China can play a rather limited influence.。In the eyes of Russia, Ukraine has a special relationship with it. The eastern Ukraine region and Russia have belonged to the same country for more than 300 years, and the separation was only after 1991.Even if Sino-Russian relations are iron again, China can't persuade Russia to give up military action. It can only hope that the Russian army will cut the gordian knot quickly and make a quick decision like the Crimean incident.On the other hand, China instinctively will realize a considerable degree of "synchronization" between the United States and Europe from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, and US-Russian relations will also be slightly ambiguous.landThere is the idea of consolidating Sino-Russian relations and dragging Russia and the West apart.Considering the development of Russian-Chinese relations,CrimeaeventIt is the key point of opening the recent "Honeymoon" period.，Since Putin wants to engage in another "enlarged version of the Crimea incident", China has no reason to stop it.The Crimean Bridge under the sunrise.After 2014, China-Russia relations were rapidly warming up.On the one hand, the Putin administration is eager to seek to reduce international isolation.——Earlier, Russia’s diplomatic focus was largely on Europe.；On the other hand, China is also aware of the opportunity to take advantage of its position in bilateral relations with Russia.CheaplyEnergy support.Since then, China has established the tone of its diplomatic discourse on the Ukraine issue:Recognize Russia’s claims that “foreign interference has caused the crisis,” but notacknowledgeRussia's occupation of Crimea orLegal Facts of Other Ukrainian Territories。Compared to later,China’s stance on the Crimean events in 2014 is almost entirely consistent with the stance shown today in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.During the eight years of 2014-2022, the above position played a very good effect.
China has provided public opinion support and significantly strengthened its relations with Russia in the wake of the Putin administration's deepening of international pressure, and on the other hand has had little impact.ChinaDevelopment of Relations with Europe and America，Or the Crimean incident did not becomeMidwestA hurdle in the process of communication.Because Crimea was quickly restored to peace after the Russian occupation, this is the power of "facts made".In fact,If the Russian army quickly cut the gordian knot and changed the regime in Kiev in February 2022, its relations with the West would not deteriorate to where they are today-malice was accumulated step by step during the war.However, the development of things did not follow the 2014 script.As the Russia-Ukraine war turned into a protracted war,, China found that it wanted to use the "diplomatic framework" of the Crimea incident in 2014disposeThe current crisis has become more difficult.From the perspective of China,If U.S. export controls on Russia were to be enforced, it would be a serious weak signal.，meant toChinese companies only sell to third countries with U.S. license，Or buy only US designated oil supplies.。
If China rejects U.S. export controls andins normal trade relations with Russia, the United States will inevitably launch a large-scale pressure campaign on China.In fact, long before the start of the war, foreign think tanks had seen China’s response as an important topic.conducted researchIn January 2022, the U.S. Institute for Foreign Policy published a report entitled “How China will respond to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis”.Among them,China may be inclined toRejecting the U.S. export control plan.Because maintaining normal trade with Russia will greatly weaken the effect of U.S. sanctions and greatly reduce Washington's ability to use economic means to restrain disobedient countries.，This is what China wants to see; ifChinacompliance with U.S. sanctions.The influence of the United States will increase.China's economic influencethenNo longer matter。At this point, China's policy framework in the Ukraine crisis has been basically finalized-maintaining normal trade relations with Russia, ensuring that the Putin regime will not fail, while refusing aid to the Russian military, and responding to the EU's security demands as much as possible.While this policy framework cannot satisfy both Russia and the EU, it is already the best solution China can find.Putin’s press secretary Peskov said: “The Kremlin doesn’t answer hypothetical questions.”Unlike diplomatic speeches representing official positions, since media articles belong to the exploration nature, this article is finally trying toAnswer a few hypothetical questions.
What would be the relationship between China and the US if the Russian-Ukrainian war did not break out?The difference between China and the United States is not much better than now, with a maximum of 60 and 55 points, and the United States may even put more resources into the "first island chain" without a massive hot war in the European direction.China-Europe relations will be better than they are now, especially China's relations with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that have been severely damaged during the Russian-Ukrainian war over the years, but this "good" is absolutely impossible to.by JANThe EUins neutrality between the US and China.。As long as the United States is determined to demand its allies in Europe, Japan and South Korea to retreat, their internal political forces can not be stopped, it is only a matter of speed and slowness, willingness and reluctance.What if China followed the EU and the US to impose sanctions on Russia?Simply put, unless China-Russia relations are decoupled to the current level of EU-Russia relations, the United States will not be satisfied.Since the war in 2022, almost all Asian economies (Except Japan, South Korea and TaiwanProvince of), all African and Latin American economies continue to trade with Russia, and China is their biggest "shield".
Once China finally responds to the call for sanctions against Russia, the United States is likely to demandglobalUnified action to bring PutinregimeCompletely driven to a dead end.At that time, Russia may collapse or surrender to the West, which in turn will be transformed into a "pioneer in containing China."As for China-U.S. relations and China-Europe relations, before Russia collapses or surrenders, of course, it will be better than it is now, but it is only temporary, once the equilibrium disappears.The Soviet split during the Cold War.Pressure is only early and late.Is it possible that China refuses to buy Russian energy, refuses to provide any military and civilian dual-use products, butins the trade of civilian goods permitted by some of the West, and at the same time Russia has stood by the situation, China-Russia, China-Europe relations have not deteriorated significantly?This sophisticated possibility exists in theory, but major choices often fail to withstand the fragile assumption that it would be extremely difficult to find the best balance in a tripartite relationship.FromEssentiallySpeaking of,The new Cold War was initiated by Biden and Putin.Divided byIndistinguishableNeither China nor the EU can stop it.。Simply put, the US and Russia are the two proactive parties in this global crisis – they are most dissatisfied with the current situation, and China and Europe are the two who respond passively.Whether it’s the EU’s choice to turn back on the United States or a series of Chinese decisions during the Ukraine crisis, and the way China and Europe deal with each other’s relations during the crisis, it’s already the best solution under real conditions.