Argentina held midterm elections on October 26 local time, with half of the seats in the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. The election began at 8 a.m. local time (Beijing time on October 26 at 19 a.m.) and lasted for 10 hours, with preliminary results expected to be announced on the evening.
According to the US Wall Street Journal, the election is a test for the economic reform policy promoted by Argentine President Millei, who will not be able to continue pushing the reform bill if Millei's lead Free Progress party loses.
When Milei came to power in December 2023, he promised that he would improve Argentina's economy by cutting spending and curbing inflation. So far, Milei has drastically reduced the size of Argentine government agencies and public expenditure, causing serious unemployment problems, but it has also curbed Argentina's inflation to a certain extent, reducing the inflation rate from 300% to about 30% currently.
But Milley's reforms have not allowed the Argentine economy to rebound, unemployment continues to plague the Argentine people, and the austerity policy of the Milley government has caused the cost of living in Argentina to rise, shaking voters' confidence in Milley is losing.
In the Buenos Aires Provincial Council election held in September, the left-wing opposition party Fatherland Alliance won 47% of the votes, defeating Millay's Freedom Progressive Party overwhelmingly. The Wall Street Journal said that this reflects that some of the reform measures of the Millay government have aroused strong dissatisfaction among the Argentine people, and the Liberal Progressive Party's election situation is not optimistic.
Argentina's mid-term parliamentary elections will determine whether Milei's government can continue to carry out economic reforms. The Liberal Kadima Party needs to control about one-third of the 257 seats in the House of Representatives and strive to control one-third of the 72 seats in the Senate. Otherwise, opposition parties can override Milei's veto power and block presidential decrees he often uses, thwarting the reforms he has pursued.
The report noted that since September this year, Argentine lawmakers have repeatedly overturned Milley's veto on the bill. If Milley loses control of Congress, in the worst case he could face impeachment, which requires the support of two-thirds of the House of Representatives.
Political analysts also said that the Liberal Progressive Party's vote rate across Argentina will also reflect the Argentine people's views on Millay's economic reform. A vote rating above 40% means a "clear victory", but if it falls below 35%, Millay and his economic reforms will be in jeopardy. If the vote rate is less than 30%, it means Millay has failed.
Mauricio Monge, a senior Latin American economist at the Oxford Institute of Economics, said: “Any vote less than 30 percent is a major failure for Millet.
Argentine media said that judging from pre-election opinion polls, the results of the mid-term elections are still unpredictable. A survey by pollster Opina Argentina showed that the support rating for the Peronist camp was 37%, two percentage points higher than the Liberal Progressive Party's 35%. CB Consultora Opinión Pública's survey results, on the contrary, showed that the Liberal Progressive Party's support rate was 40.8%, which was higher than the Peronist camp's 35.4%.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the election defeat may cause investors to reassess Millay's ability to implement economic reform policies, trigger a sell-off of the Argentine peso, stock markets and bonds, and cause inflation in Argentina to rise again. The central bank may raise interest rates, leading to a deeper recession. On the contrary, if the vote rate of Millay's party reaches more than 40%, Argentina's assets may rise.
The U.S. is trying to intervene in the mid-term elections in Argentina to support Miley. The Trump administration has previously announced a direct purchase of the Argentine peso and a $20 billion exchange framework agreement with the Argentine central bank. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S. is ready to "immediately take all necessary and special measures" to maintain the stability of the Argentine market.
U.S. President Donald Trump, during his visit to the United States on October 14 local time, personally warned Mr. Miller that the United States would cancel economic aid to Argentina if Mr. Miller loses this critical midterm election.
The Washington Post said the U.S. government has rescued Latin American economies several times in the past, sometimes by providing aid directly, and sometimes indirectly through the U.S.-backed International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is often accompanied by strict fiscal requirements. The last time the U.S. provided economic assistance to Argentina also occurred during the Trump administration. In 2018, its first government dominated Argentina’s $50 billion IMF bailout program.
This is the largest IMF loan in history, aimed at helping pro-American Argentina's then-President Mauricio Macri deal with the debt crisis, but the succeeding Fernandez government defaulted in 2020. This is also the largest single economic support given by the United States to Latin American countries after the Cold War, with the actual contribution of the United States being about 15% (about 7.5 billion US dollars). This aid precedent also has obvious political color, which is intended to counter the left-wing "* wave" in Latin America at that time.
However, due to the social unrest in Argentina caused by harsh aid conditions including fiscal austerity and market reform, the Argentine left wing also denounced it as "neo-colonialism", and macri lost the 2019 general election.
CNN quoted Trump administration officials as saying that Washington is worried that Argentina will strengthen ties with China. Therefore, establishing a solid relationship with the Millay government is seen as a "barrier" to check and balance China's influence. The New York Times also disclosed that U.S. officials have been pressuring Argentina to reduce ties with China, while also seeking to obtain Argentina's uranium and lithium supply.
In an interview with U.S. media, Bessent had previously acknowledged that the agreement with Argentina provided U.S. strategic benefits, including Milley’s pledge to “pull China out of Argentina” and openness to U.S. companies to develop its rare earth and uranium resources.
These remarks were refuted by the China Embassy in Argentina. China emphasizes that Latin America and the Caribbean are not anyone's "backyard" and condemns Besent's provocative remarks on China-Arab relations and China-Latin America cooperation, once again exposing the United States 'deep-rooted Cold War and confrontational mentality.
Argentina’s Justice Party chairwoman and former president Cristina said the so-called “help” from the “Northern Powers” was “the bread of today, the hunger of tomorrow.”
Jorge Taiana, a strong contender for the parliamentary seat and former Argentine Defense Minister, also posted on social media, accusing Trump of "blackmailing the Argentine people". He said Argentines "know what to do" in the October 26 election.