[Military and Military Subplane] Author: Feng Yu

"Russian RT" published an article titled "The End of Ukraine's Counteroffensive Illusion" on October 24, pointing out that the Ukrainian army has fallen into a systemic recession on the front line: the tide of deserters has intensified, troops have been exhausted, drone defense lines have collapsed, and many frontline lines have been lost continuously.

As the Russian forces steadily advance in key locations such as Kupyansk, Rediliman, Pokrovsk, the illusion of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been completely destroyed.

The article concludes that in the next combat season, that is, in late winter and early spring, the decisive battle will begin. Given Russia's advantages, this wave of offensive will make the Russia-Ukraine conflict settled.

In the past year, Ukraine's military strength has fallen into a deep structural crisis. Data show that in the first nine months of this year alone, the Ukrainian Prosecutor's Office filed more than 160,000 desertion cases, one-third more than the total since the outbreak of the war.

A large number of soldiers abandoned their posts, and some troops were successively abolished. They could have been maintained by drones, but they gradually became ineffective due to a shortage of operators and delayed maintenance.

It is said that the Ukrainian front force has a net decrease of 10,000 to 15,000 people per month, and most of them are experienced veterans.

Most of the newly recruited reserve personnel were in poor physical condition and under-trained, after all, they were sent to the battlefield early on.

To continue, Ukraine needs a stable rotating and reserve system, but both systems have now collapsed.

At the same time, the Russian military's new conscription work is generally relatively smooth, and as the situation declines, there will be a cliff-like gap.

(Russian media reports of the event)

At present on the front line, the defense line of Ukraine has appeared to collapse continuously, the direction of Pokrovsk is most obvious, advancing forward 15 kilometers, forcing the Ukrainian army from Kupyansk, Redliman, Zaporovo hot and other places to draft the reserve blockade.

Most of the area of Kupiyansk has now been controlled by the Russian army, the Redman direction has been gradually encircled, and the supply line in Shevelsk is also within the range of drone fire.

The Russian army is now characterized by stable and steady fighting, and it can even be said a little bit of dullness, showing a multi-point pressure, trying to weaken the ability of the Ukrainian army to rotate, and eventually let the enemy gradually collapse itself.

At present, the Russian army has formed a stable offensive in the three major directions of Donbas, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, and the Ukrainian army has no possibility of an overall counterattack. Last year, I fantasized about breaking into Crimea, but now I can only think about it.

This has also led to increased tension in the back of Ukraine, as the withdrawal of the front line meant greater recruitment pressure, and the recruitment order further provoked public discontent.

At the same time, the economy is stagnant, the energy system is collapsing, and infrastructure recovery is slowing and slowing. Especially as winter is gradually entering, heating and electricity supply are truly life-and-death matters, but there is currently no possibility of solution.

The Russian military tested the pulse strike pattern on the Ukrainian energy system last winter, and if it continues to escalate this year, the consequences will be even worse.

We can say that Ukraine has little breathing space.

(Ukrainian Army)

On the other hand, although Russia is also facing huge costs and pressures, its tactics and strategic rhythm can still advance steadily.

The manpower problem is not as serious as the Ukrainian army, and the wartime transformation of the industrial system is also very complete. Reports show that in the first half of this year, the output of the Russian defense industry increased significantly year-on-year, and the supply lines of drones, artillery shells and missiles have all achieved self-sufficiency.

This is Russia's current strategy. Some people have money and just continue to exert pressure at their own pace. There is no need for large-scale attacks and no pursuit of major short-term results. As long as we go hand in hand and keep moving forward, Ukraine and the West will have no choice.

So it can be seen that the Russian army is now no longer in a rush to occupy the city, but through multi-directional grip and deep strikes, so that the Ukrainian troops are constantly forced to redistribute.Kupyansk, Red Lehman, Pokrovsk, Gulyapole, Olehov, the five directions, have formed a compression network, any collapse will be triggered and the whole line of defense will retreat.

So what is terrible now is not that the Russian army is rushing, but that the Russian army is no longer rushing. This gives Ukraine no chance to counterattack at all and can only be forced to follow the rhythm of the Russian army.

(Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army)

Then the next development of the battle scene, it is also easier to predict, after the entrance of the winter, the Russian army should choose to move in two directions: one is the northern Kupyansk-Redman axis, with the aim of tearing the northern wing of the defense of Donbass, forming the siege of Kramatorsk;

The second is the southern Pokrovsk-Gulaipolje axis approaching the Dnieper River with deep advancement.

At that time, Ukraine will be forced to fully defend on the eastern line and re-establish the Dnipro defense line.

If the Russian army advances smoothly, this is likely to be the largest geographical retreat since the beginning of the Ukrainian war, and may even reach the limits of the Ukraine army.

Then in the future, it will no longer be defense in the military sense. Donbass is gone, how can we defend it? At that time, I'm afraid there is really only one way to stop losses in time.

(Russian army)

This is Russia's confidence. It can achieve its goals without negotiation. Then it can make an offer to the United States and Ukraine. You can accept handing over all Donbas, and I can give up part of the occupied land in other directions.

If you don't agree, it doesn't matter if you cancel the negotiations or something. I will solve the problem directly on the battlefield. At that time, there will be no deal, and even more stringent conditions will be offered. After all, Russia has paid more prices.

This is an unresolved cycle. The more Ukraine fights, the greater the losses and the more harsh the conditions will be. But if you say you give up Donbass directly, you can't do it. You can only bite the bullet and continue to fight, and if you continue to fight, the losses will expand and the cycle will start over and over again.

So even if the next spring offensive does not take Ukraine away, as long as Ukraine does not get out of this dead cycle, the final outcome will not change.