This time, the United States is really anxious. China launched three consecutive moves, starting with "materials", then stuck with "technology", and finally simply used the "knife of the system." However, the United States refused to admit its debt and scolded China for "confronting the world," but secretly it was busy looking for Australia to be a "lackey."
Is this a resource competition or a rule struggle? a rare game of the high-tech era begins here.
America is scared, not just the rare earth.
July 3, 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce threw its first trump card and announced that Implementation of export licensing system for uranium-related products, officially since August 1These two elements are not ordinary goods.
China alone accounts for 94% of global gallium production, and germanium also accounts for 60% to 80%.What about the use? Chips, radars, missiles, all depend on them. American companies fry pots on the spot. Whose raw materials are not pulled from China? As soon as the control comes out, the supply is unstable, the chain has to be completely reorganized, and the procurement cost immediately rises.
The price is not polite to you. to August 2024， The price of gallium soared by 53.4%, and germanium ingots directly rose to 1.6 times.This upward trend has awakened U.S. enterprises: originally “technological autonomy”, relying entirely on “Chinese mines”.
But China does not stop. December 21, 2023The second knife falls – prohibited Export of rare earth extraction and separation technologyTo be honest, materials don’t let you buy, processes don’t teach you how to do it.The United States can mix up technology cooperation before, and now it’s completely off line.
For rare earths, China not only accounts for 63% of the world's production, but also accounts for more than 85% of its processing capacity。This is great. The U.S. defense, semiconductor, and high-tech industries, from magnetic materials to laser equipment, have suffered losses.
The Chinese side not only blocked the goods, but also blocked the technology. As a result, the United States had to lose face and began to use the Ministry of Finance and the military to fight together to mess with the so-called "local supply chain."
Return to December 2019, the U.S. military began to spend money to support the construction of rare earth processing plants in China. Claimed to be World War II "Manhattan Project"Since then, the US military has invested in commercial rare-earth production for the first time.
According to Reuters, the U.S. military is willing to spend two-thirds of the entire cost to help enterprises to set up the stove.This calculation is loud, but the question is solid: the mine has, processing? patents? skilled workers? the U.S. wants to self-sufficiency, no decade to think.
Arrived June 2025, the situation still hasn't changed much. The comment of the Mind Observation Institute is straightforward: America's "rare earth independence" is more like a long-distance run against the wind。
The only mine – the Mountain Pass mine in California. MP Materialsstanding up, even though U.S. Department of DefenseSigned the agreement and gave $400 million in preferred shares + $1 billion in loans, also promised 10 years of price protection, but the output, technology, and environmental protection are all stuck. Revival isn't about money alone.
On the other hand, China is on the other side. April 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce took action again, Imposing export restrictions on seven medium and heavy rare earth metalsIncluded in Thus, it is called thyroidism, thyroidism, thyroidism, thyroidism and thyroidism.。These are not household light bulb materials, but are important materials for practical use in high-end weapons, avionics, and chips.
The US analysis is very realistic: many companies' rare earth metal inventories will only be exhausted 40 to 60 days.Once interrupted, the entire production line has to be "silent". at this time, the United States only discovered that the material can not be screamed by the mouth, the military costs can not replenish the chain, and the rare earth is stuck, not only high-tech, but also their global voice.
This is not a ban on exports, it is a control system
The first move restricts elements, the second move breaks technology, and the third move is that China uses the "knife of rules." 9 October 2025, the Ministry of Commerce issued two heavy announcements in one go: Export controls on foreign rare-earth objectsAt the same time right. Rare Earth Related Technologiesand control together.
The legislative basis is not an improvised idea, but a firm certainty: the Export Control Law and the Export Control Regulations of Dual-use Items are supporting it. Explicit application of "extraterritorial jurisdiction" clauses。
What does it matter? the core is two words – norms. not a single cut, nor not to sell, but to buyers, use, technology export process, a restriction. this way of regulation, is not forbidden, but "Who to use, how to use, where to use" must be clear, registered in the case。
Why does this happen? experts say: Rare earth is the "life and death line" of modern military industry。Missiles, fighter jets, and radars all rely on them to support the bottom.
What's more, China has long been 1 October 2024The "Rare Earth Management Regulations" were implemented and June 2025Activated Rare earth magnet tracking system, requires relevant companies to declare transaction flows and customers. This is no longer "selling materials", but "managing the chain".
This full-process traceability + regulatory binding not only makes exports "verifiable, controllable, and actionable", but also directly upgrades China from a "resource exporter" to a "system leader."
In the past, the United States could bypass China to buy rare earth mines from other countries, and now, it is a pity that refining technology, separation standards, key equipment, can not bypass China.
To be honest, China is digging from “land to land” to “who is using”, from selling things to setting rules.
Of course, these boundaries are cleared, and the effects are immediately visible. September 2025, China's rare earth exports only 4000 to 3 tonsMore than descending. 30.9%Three months in a row, down the year. Lowest record since February。
The United States was so anxious that supply chain companies began to stock up on goods, raise prices, temporarily switch production, and the financial market began to float.
But for China, this is part of strategic rebalancing. Spokesperson of the Ministry of Lin JianSpeaking inappropriately: "This is an international common practice and China's contribution to world peace and regional stability."
Yes, this round of play is no longer based on the market, but on national security as the bottom line. Different from the upper limit of "export quotas" in the past, it is now a full-process norm- Uncompliant, not to sell; vague use, not to sell; can be controlled risk, only to let go.
The United States shouted, China responded calmly.
Once the control was put in place, the outside world became uneasy. The United States first made a heavy remark: 16 October 2025U.S. Treasury Secretary by BessonStand up and say: China is "confronting the world" and also calls on allies to form a counterattack. This is not a technical discussion, this is naked political mobilization.
Who's keeping up? Group of Seven (G7). As early as 15 Oct, G7 finance ministers are here Washington isAt the meeting, they intended to "coordinate and fight against China's rare earth control", and even said that they wanted to "avoid backlash to their respective economies". It can be seen that they themselves had no idea about this matter.
German Finance Minister by Clint Bay, Minister of Canada Sidhu, British government spokespersons, all there to express their opinions. But these statements also exposed a problem: Although the United States and the West want to form a group, their countermeasures are not unified, their goals are not clear, and their confidence is insufficient.
Look at Beethoven’s words, he said. The CNBC ForumName to be joined. Australia, Canada, India and Asian "democracies", to launch a "comprehensive collective response".
The next day, the Australian Treasurer ChalmersImmediately appeared, saying that he was "willing to serve dog horses" and claimed that Australia could be a "reliable replacement".
Are you afraid of China? 17 OctoberThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He YongCalm response: resolutely opposed to the "pan-security" trend.We do not accompany you in political performances, China's export policy is based on the law, does not accept unjustified blackmail.
Meanwhile, the US media The New York Times also pointed out that China’s rare-earth measures will Semiconductors, artificial intelligence, smart phones, cars, defenseThe industry has a huge impact, including the United States itself. Trade Representative GreerHe also acknowledged that this regulation “has far-reaching implications.”
At this time, you understand that what the United States is afraid of is never that China will not sell, but that China has the right to say "no." Even if they join Australia, call for the G7, and gather together a "democracy team," they will not be able to circumvent the rules set by China.
This struggle around rare earth is no longer a dispute over resources, but a positive collision between systems and rules and rules, and China has no reason to step back.
References:
Regarding rare earths, the United States has a new move! Global Times. 2019-12-13
Rare-Earth Survey from the First Line: Why the United States is Hurry. 2019-06-15
Zhou Zhou: America's "rare-earth independence" is only a will. global network. 2021-03-18
China Implemented Export Controls on Rare-Earth-Related Technologies Experts: “Standardized Exports” rather than “Prohibited Exports”.
U.S. Treasury Secretary said China's rare earth export controls are "against the world." China responded. Observer Network. 2025-10-16
The United States is challenging allies to collectively deal with China’s rare earth export controls? – China’s response.
The United States cannot alleviate the "rare earth crisis" in the short term. Sina Finance. 2025-06-17
Mind Observatory: Can the U.S. Really Promote the Construction of Rare-Earth Supply Chains? — Observer Network, 2025-07-17
Australian Treasury Secretary: The United States wants to get rid of its dependence on China’s rare-earth, willing to do “dog-horse work”.