Speaking of the changes in the global pattern of the great powers, many are now talking about whether the United States can continue to be the leader, whether China is already on the way to overcome it. In the past few years, U.S. retired colonel Douglas McGregor has repeatedly mentioned similar topics in various interviews and programs, he thinks the Western-led world order has gone to head, China is rapidly pulling away in terms of economy and influence. McGregor is not casual to say that he has been an adviser to the Ministry of Defense, has practical experience in military intelligence and strategy, from 2023, he has publicly spoken about the US actions in Ukraine and the Middle East have exposed weaknesses, and China is not involved in these conflicts, but is steadily moving forward.
For example, in 2024, he bluntly stated on a YouTube program that global wealth and power are shifting eastward, China is building infrastructure, India is rising, BRICS Group's economy has exceeded that of the G7, and the United States is still struggling internally with debt and inflation issues. This sounds down-to-earth, because in reality, the U.S. federal debt will exceed US$35 trillion in 2025, and interest expenses account for an increasing proportion of the budget, squeezing military space.
McGregor's analysis is not empty, he often speaks with the data. For example, China's manufacturing output in 2024 accounted for 30% of the world's output, exports exceeded $3.5 trillion, and the United States, although it is still the largest economy, but the growth rate is only about 2% and China is stable at more than 5%. McGregor mentioned in a podcast in September 2025 that the U.S. military-industrial complex is too dependent on high-cost projects, such as the F-35 fighter plane from the start in 2001 to now, has spent trillions of dollars and has also frequently failed.
On China's side, the military budget for 2025 is about 300 billion US dollars, focusing on hypersonic missiles and aircraft carrier groups, which is more efficient. McGregor believes that the United States used to rely on the hegemony of the US dollar and a network of military bases to control the world, but now the status of the US dollar is shaking. Because of the BRICS currency system promoted by China and Russia, more than 20 countries have joined in 2024, settling trade in local currencies, to avoid the impact of dollar fluctuations. This is quite realistic. In 2023, Saudi Arabia and China will use RMB to settle oil, which will make the United States nervous.
Talking about the military level, McGregor often criticizes the deployment of the U.S. military as too scattered, the high maintenance costs of more than 800 bases around the world, and spending alone in the Middle East and Europe will account for 30% of military spending in 2024. China's military is focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. In 2025, the number of naval ships will exceed 400, including four aircraft carriers. The United States has 11 ships but are seriously aging, and several are under maintenance at docks. In an interview in 2025, McGregor said that if the United States comes tough on the Taiwan issue, it will face supply chain disruptions because China controls 80% of the world's rare earths and most chip assemblies.
At the 2024 NATO summit, several European countries failed to reach the target, Germany only accounted for 1.5% of GDP, far below the 2% commitment. Through the Belt and Road, China's project in 2025 covered 170 countries, invested more than 1.2 trillion dollars, helped Africa and Latin America to build roads and ports, and brought relations closer together. McGregor believes that this is not a simple aid, but a strategic layout, giving China a greater voice in developing countries, and U.S. aid often has conditions and effects.
Economically, China began with China-U.S. trade friction in 2018, on the acceleration of the internal cycle, in 2024 consumer market size surpassed the U.S., e-commerce platforms like Alibaba and Pentagon more, the annual transaction volume broke $ 10 trillion. McGregor pointed out that the U.S. manufacturing industry screamed for a few years, employment in 2025 increased less than a million, because of the high labor costs, enterprises are still unable to separate from China's supply chain.
Take electric vehicles as an example, BYD in China will sell more than 3 million units in 2024, while Tesla will only have just over 2 million units. China is the leader in battery technology, accounting for 60% of global production capacity. McGregor wrote in his book that the United States has a good innovation ecosystem, but its execution is weak. Most Silicon Valley projects burn money and are actually slow to implement. The 5G network supported by the China government will have more than 4 million base stations in 2025, ranking first in the world in coverage. 5G in the United States will only cover 70% of cities by 2025. The technological gap is narrowing. McGregor feels that the U.S. ban has backfired on him. Huawei will launch its own chips in 2024, and its performance will catch up with Qualcomm.
In terms of influence, McGregor often says that soft power in the United States is declining, and Hollywood and the NBA are still popular, but China's cultural export is accelerating. In 2024, the international version of Douyin will have more than 2 billion users, surpassing Instagram. McGregor mentioned in his 2025 X post that the BRICS summit allowed China to dominate issues such as climate change and digital currency, while the G7 meeting in the United States had internal quarrels, and Canada and Japan complained about U.S. policies. At the United Nations, China will promote reform of the Security Council in 2025 and increase the number of seats for developing countries. The United States opposes it but has a strong sense of isolation. McGregor analyzed that after the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in 2021, its credibility fell to rock bottom. The conflict in the Middle East escalated in 2024. The United States supported Israel but Arab countries turned to China for mediation. The reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 was facilitated by China, which weakened the influence of the United States in the Middle East.
McGregor’s point of view is logical, and he thinks that the standard for superpowers is not only military, but also economic stability and global partners. The U.S. inflation rate in 2024 exceeds 3%, unemployment rate rises to 4.5%, social division intensifies, and Congressional budget is delayed until 2025 to pass. China’s population dividends are moving, but the workforce in 2025 exceeds 900 million, educational investment is big, STEM graduates account for 40% worldwide. McGregor said in the program that U.S. immigration policy is turbulent, 2024 border illegal entry exceeds 2 million, affecting social cohesion. China’s national policy is stable, the goal of a billion four billion people is unanimous, pushing the high-speed rail network to 50,000 km in 2025 and
Looking back at the trade leadership, China is the world’s largest trading country in 2025, with total imports and exports exceeding $7 trillion, the US trade deficit year-on-year exceeding $1 trillion. McGregor noted that the U.S. tariff war from 2018 to now has not stopped China, but instead made U.S. consumers pay more. In 2024, U.S. tariffs on China averaged 15%, but China’s exports turned to Southeast Asia and Europe, bypassing the barriers. Technology-led, China’s patent applications accounted for 50% in the world in 2024, the number of artificial intelligence papers first. McGregor felt that the U.S. advantage was in software, but hardware relied on China, and the 2025 chip ban allowed United to lose 100 billion in Chinese quantum
McGregor also talked about the reversal of the pattern. In terms of trade, China dominates the supply chain. In 2025, the "Belt and Road" trade volume will exceed US$2 trillion. There are few countries participating in the Indo-Pacific economic framework of the United States, and the effect is average. Technology has reversed. China exports 5G and high-speed rail to 100 countries, while the United States has backward high-speed rail technology. In the military reversal, McGregor said that China's military is modernizing rapidly. In 2025, the Air Force will have more than 300 J-20s, and the United States will have only 180 F-22s and will be discontinued. In the field of drones, China exports a lot of rainbow series, while the United States predator is expensive and has many restrictions. China is not afraid of threats because of its strong industrial foundation and long-term support.
Overall, McGregor feels that the United States is like the United Kingdom back then, with its influence retreating to the second place in 2025, with China dominating global affairs. In an interview in 2025, he said that history is turning and the rise of East Asia is unstoppable. The United States needs reform, but political polarization blocks it, Democrats and Republicans fight, and policies are difficult to push forward. McGregor continued to comment and observe the changes. His analysis is down-to-earth, based on data and reality, and is not a fantasy.