On October 25, the end of the first day of talks in Kuala Lumpur, Trump said that China and the United States have a high probability of achieving a very important substantive agreement.For the specific content of the agreement, Trump did not disclose, but the external speculation, may include the following aspects: one is that the US will further reduce or suspend tariffs, eliminate unreasonable port charges; two is that China will increase the procurement of agricultural products such as soybeans in the United States, stabilize the U.S. agricultural export market, reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China; three is that the U.S. will ease high-end chip export restrictions in exchange for China's adjustment of rare-earth exports; four is that China will discuss the import of Russian oil; fifth is that China will

At present, it is relatively likely that China and the United States will reach an agreement on the first three issues. The fourth and fifth issues involve geopolitics and diplomatic and national defense autonomy, and it is unlikely to reach an agreement in the short term. But for Trump, being able to solve the first three problems has already won the lottery, because the United States will hold mid-term elections in November next year, and all the seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate will be re-elected. If the Sino-US trade dispute continues to drag on, causing greater damage to the US economy, then the Republican Party is likely to lose control of the Senate and the House of Representatives and swing states in the mid-term elections, which will lead to Trump's second half of his term entering "garbage time". For example, in 2018, Trump lost control of the House of Representatives and the positions of governors in seven Republican states due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war. After the Democratic Party took control of the House of Representatives, it not only fiercely opposed Trump's U.S.-Mexico border wall plan and tax reduction bill, but also launched a number of investigations against Trump, including "TongRumen" and tax evasion. These practices greatly affected the results of the 2020 general election and even almost sent Trump to prison.

So for the second term of Trump, the urgent task now is not to fight a lasting war with China on trade issues, but to calm the trade dispute as soon as possible, stabilize the U.S. economic situation, and prevent the Democrats from stealing the house behind.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce of China shows that from January to September this year, 48921 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%; the actual amount of foreign investment used was 573.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the actual use of foreign investment in September increased by 11.2% year-on-year. Among them, investment from Japan, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Switzerland increased by 55.5%, 48.7%, 21.1%, and 19.7% respectively.

In addition, according to the latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in September this year, banks settled US$264.7 billion and sold US$213.6 billion, achieving a surplus of US$51 billion, the highest in a single month since December 2020.

These data show that although the Sino-US trade dispute has not yet subsided, the willingness of foreign capital to flood into China is becoming stronger and stronger due to the continuous erosion of the US dollar's credit and the Federal Reserve's entry into a interest-rate cut cycle. Under such circumstances, Trump can fully reach an agreement with China to expand market opening, allowing China to take advantage of the trend of devaluing the US dollar and appreciating the RMB to purchase more American products, thereby balancing the Sino-US trade deficit. In order to seize the China market, foreign-funded enterprises are bound to increase investment in China, bring more job opportunities, and alleviate the problem of insufficient domestic consumption and investment confidence.

At present, the China-US Kuala Lumpur talks have not yet ended, and everything has not yet been settled.But since the first day of the talks, the full smile of the Chinese representatives when they went to the meeting and the low tone of the U.S. representatives from the side door, the outcome of the talks is likely to be favorable to the Chinese side.If everything goes well, we will probably see a scene in the beginning of November.