Preliminary
For more than three years, the gunfire was weakening, the smoke on the Ukrainian battlefield was slowly dissipating, and Putin didn’t say “lost,” but he didn’t want to fight again: Because the land that should have been taken has already been obtained, in other words, it is enough to pay off the job.
The territory under Russian control is equivalent to one territory of Portugal. The resources are thick enough, the strategy is stable enough, and public opinion is beginning to wear out.What Putin wants is not to win, but to stabilize the situation, to give the country a "can deliver" answer, the current question is not "can not fight", but "do it have no meaning."
From "blitzkrieg" to "brake war", where did Putin's calculations go?
At the beginning of the war, Russia set up a set of plans to "sweep up Ukraine", want to engage in a lightning battle and speed up the war. but the reality is that more than three years have passed, Ukraine is still, and NATO is not scared, It's not that the Russian army doesn't want to fight, it's just that it can't fight anymore.
In 2025, the Russian military began to slow down, and the offensive markedly slowed. Putin no longer pursued taking over the entire Ukraine, but began to build walls and dig trenches, focusing on consolidating the territory he had already obtainedDonetsk, Lugansk, Helsinki, Zaporozhye, and the already annexed Crimea together accounted for about one-fifth of Ukraine.
The West estimates that Russian military casualties may be close to a million; the official although the mouth does not admit, but the tension in the military sources is already a public secret, and the military spending has soared to 9.7% of GDP, almost touched the red line before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the civil industry shrunk, the prices rose, the ruble devalued, and the lives of the people were dragged by the war.
So Putin changed his script and stopped talking about "overall victory" and started talking about "reasonable stop loss." He first publicly proposed a ceasefire negotiation “based on the current front” in May 2024.On the one hand, it is releasing the wind to the outside world, and on the other hand, it is also finding a step for itself. In Putin's logic, the fact that this war can be fought like it is now is enough to be written into textbooks.
Land is not taken for nothing, and resources and strategic values support the confidence to "cross the border"
You have to ask this battle is not worth it, it has to look at the value of the land taken is not worth it, more than 110,000 square kilometers under Putin's control, don't look at just a small piece on the map, the inside is the Silver Mountain.
The Donbass region is the energy heart of Ukraine, accounting for 90% of the country’s coal reserves.The value is estimated to exceed US$12 trillion, as well as lithium and rare earths, which are the lifeblood of modern industry. Zaporozhye nuclear power plant will supply Ukraine with 25% electricity, is now under the control of Russia and integrated into the Russian power grid, directly replenishing the energy structure.
In terms of agriculture, Kherson Oblast is the "granary of Europe". Wheat exports have increased instead of decreasing. Ports along the Black Sea coast, such as Mariupol, have now become new export channels for Russian grain and energy, which is equivalent to an additional foreign trade highway.
Geographically, this area connects Russia and Crimea, like a "geographical lock". Block the Eastern expansion of NATO.It also laid the foundation for Russia’s presence in the Black Sea.
More importantly, these resources can be used directly. Coal supports military industry, food exchange foreign exchange, electricity stability, and forms a "closed circle economy".This is not simply the occupation of the kingdom, but the conversion of the cost of war into economic supplies, and Western sanctions do not end up stopping Russia itself from blood transfusions.
So that Putin did not fight, not to win, but to win almost, now at this point, to take out the cross with the domestic is not enough.
People's opinion is changing, the territory has become Putin's "buffer"
The war has been delayed to the third and a half years, the voice in Russia has also changed, at the beginning 70 percent of the population supports the start of the war, so far there are only 60 percent; more concerned is that the September 2025 poll showed that only 27 percent of people want to continue fighting, more than 60 percent want to negotiate, and the sentiment of someone at the front is more direct in the family. : Protests, petitions, letters, everything is missing.
Oil and gas export revenue decreased by 14%, drug prices increased by three or four times, foreign investment evacuated, unemployment increased.
Putin did not fail to see these changes, he began to adjust the propaganda calibre. Moving from “military victory” to “government achievements”Instead of broadcasting missiles every day on television, they began to put pictures of new hospitals and schools; the occupied areas issued passports, modified teaching materials, and packaged them into "return to the motherland's historic land."
This is like giving a "consolation needle" to the people of the country: we didn't fight in vain. The land we have dug down can be used, can support people, and can straighten our backs. This 18% of the territory is Putin's "political step" to give 100 million Russians.
With his feet on resources and his eyes on negotiations, how long can Putin's "freeze" be frozen?
Fighting is a tool, not an end. Putin's current goal is to turn the battlefield into a negotiating table, but the problem is that this table is not easy to set up. Russia's conditions are: Ukraine must admit that the occupied territories belong to Russia, never join NATO, and reduce the size of its military, almost equivalent to asking Ukraine to admit its "defeat". Of course, Ukraine refused to agree. Zelensky was determined to restore the 1991 borders.
Western aid has also changed the face, with the United States reducing aid to Ukraine by 23% in 2024, France advocating "Europe's independence", the new German prime minister is more radical, Hungary simply doesn't play, plus Trump constantly pressures Ukraine to persuade them to "change the peace."
This has formed a deadlock: Russia can't return empty-handed, and Ukraine can't make openly concessions. The West speaks its own words, and everyone can't move, but they can't afford to lose. In this embarrassing situation, Putin chose to "freeze the conflict", not fighting but not retreating, maintaining the status quo of governance in the occupied areas, and then waiting for the situation to change. But can this frozen situation really be frozen?
History tells us that Freezing conflict is often just a pause in the middle of the next war.The explosions in Mariupol, underground resistance, espionage operations are all timebombs, Ukraine loses resource zones and outlets, the economic basic disk is empty, only on foreign aid to maintain its livelihoods.
Russia has long been decoupled from the West. Although it has moved closer to the East and Sino-Russian trade has broken records, excessive reliance on energy and military industry may also drag down the economic structure The conflict extinguished on the surface, but there was still smoke underneath.
conclusion
Putin is not surrendering but taking his hand, he knows that the battle is being fought so far, it can not be completely won, but it can not be completely lost, taking 18% of Ukraine's land, holding energy, food and strategic channels, enough to support the domestic "victory narrative".
War is no longer the day-to-day shooting, but the impasse of "not talking, not fighting, not moving." But this state of "ceasefire is not equal to peace" is actually more dangerousBecause everyone knows that this is just a pause button, not a stop button. For Putin, this 18% of the territory is an explanation for the war; but for the entire region, this "unfinished war" is far from written.
References:
Three years of conflict, what should the Russian elite think about?
2025-02-24 Economic Observer
The war between Russia and Ukraine has not stopped for two years, but things are becoming clearer and clearer
Beijing Daily Client 2024-02-22
There are no winners in the conflict war. It is time to work together to press the stop button for the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Kyiv news network 2023-02-24
Third anniversary of the Russian conflict.
2025-02-24 New York Times