Preliminary
People thought Meghan was an unbreakable iron-bone ally, but on October 24, Trump cut off all negotiations due to an advertisement.
More ironically, the advertisement used the original words of former President Reagan's opposition to tariffs, while the Reagan Foundation condemned the advertisement a few hours before Trump posted.
This wave of operations has made the relationship between the United States and Canada even more stiff, and Canada has also begun to look at China, trying to find a new way out to reduce the pressure.
75 million advertisements incite Trump's "mid-term ballot machine"
This wave is more of a diplomatic out-of-control, rather than a carefully calculated political game, one is carefully arranged and the other is extremely passive.
The trigger was an advertisement in Ontario, Canada. They spent $75 million and put it on mainstream American media, not even missing the prime time of the World Series.
The content of the advertisement is very simple, borrowing the voice of Reagan, the "conservative saint" of the United States in 1987, when he clearly opposed high tariffs, warning that they would trigger retaliation and ultimately harm the United States itself.
Ontario’s intention is clear, using Reagan’s reputation to portray Trump’s high tariff policy, to get U.S. voters back in support of free trade and force him to make concessions in negotiations.
The outcome was completely opposite, and Trump did not analyze the logic at all, nor intended to explain the policy, and he directly asserted that it was Canada interfering in the internal affairs of the United States.
He publicly insulted advertisements as “fake” and “manipulating the American public opinion” and ordered the suspension of trade talks in order to punish them.
On the Canadian side, embarrassed to the utmost point, the Reagan Foundation immediately jumped out to say that the advertisement was “broken” and “unauthorized”, and even considered to accuse them, and Ontario hurried to explain that it was used for public domain materials.
But on a political level, this interpretation is meaningless, with U.S. media side by side reporting Trump’s anger, and Canada instead being portrayed as a “provocator.”
This "advertising diplomacy" eventually completely turned, was to use Reagan's name to impress the Americans, but as a result, Trump played a play "for national dignity", his supporters instead became more united, the image became more tough and more patriotic.
Not only did Ontario waste $75 million, but it was also ridiculed as "asking for trouble" in American public opinion.
Trump did not waste this opportunity. He acted accurately and announced the suspension of all negotiations on his social platform. On the surface, he responded angrily to the advertising controversy. In fact, it was a carefully designed "political shock."
The purpose is not to quarrel, but to regain control of the initiative. The accusation of "advertising fraud" is just an excuse. The real intention is to use trade threats to re-suppress Canada and remind the other party that the economic lifeline is still in the hands of the United States.
Canada's weakness is clear at a glance. About 75% of the country's exports are sold to the United States. From automobiles, steel to agricultural products, almost no industry can operate independently.
It’s because of this structural dependence that every trade move by Trump can spark a storm in Canada.
When he was in power last time, he taught Canada a severe lesson with high tariffs, covering almost 80% of exports. That impact caused heavy economic losses to Canada.
In the second quarter of 2025, Canada's GDP will fall by more than 2.3% as a result, resulting in a loss of almost 78 billion Canadian dollars. On average, each Canadian will receive 1,900 Canadian dollars less per year.
According to this trend, if the tariffs are to continue for another six months, I am afraid it will have to fall into the dungeon of a shallow recession, let alone the automotive industry has lost 20,000 jobs, and manufacturing exports are directly cut off.
Trump knows well that as long as he takes action on trade, Canada's economy will experience shocks. For him, this is not only an economic issue, but also a political bargaining chip to consolidate power.
Newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Carney appeared particularly passive in the face of this sudden crisis. A few days ago, Trump pretended to understand and expressed his willingness to communicate. In the blink of an eye, he turned his face and announced a "suspension of negotiations", catching the other side off guard.
75% of their lives hang on U.S. tariffs.
This wave of Trump's actions may seem to be an emotional "rampage", but in fact it is a political show with shrewd cost-benefit calculations. The benefits are visible, but the costs are long-term.
The 2026 mid-term elections are approaching, and he is trying to send a clear signal to his iron vote warehouse-voters in those manufacturing states in the Midwest of the United States: "I am protecting American workers."
Within the Republican party, he also needs to consolidate his own label of “economic nationalism” through this “hard-to-foreign” expression, a logic he used long before when dealing with trade with the EU and Japan, and now only repeats the old trick code.
The return is short-term political capital, but the long-term cost is astonishingly high, as the New York futures market reports that the price of raw aluminum rose instantly by 3%, and the dollar's exchange rate fell by 1.2%.
The deeper cost is the erosion of U.S. global credibility, and even the Washington Post lamented: “Trump is using American friendship as a negotiation code to demonstrate personal power.”
This political show operations, the international markets again tension, even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce issued a report warning that if the U.S. trade negotiations long-term interruption, the U.S. itself may lose 280,000 jobs.
Trump’s team obviously puts more emphasis on political effects than economic costs, but they may not have counted who’s going to end up paying the bill.
Canada's passivity is not only a temporary diplomatic dilemma, but also a vulnerability deeply rooted in the country's economic structure.
A suffocating figure of 75 percent means that three-quarters of the country’s economic vitality is attributed to the U.S. family, and this high degree of dependence is no longer a simple economic problem, but a strategic “crime.”
Every tariff threat from Trump is like a sword of Damocles hanging over Canada. The "steel and aluminum tariff storm" in 2017 caused a direct loss of Canadian GDP by 78 billion Canadian dollars and a reduction in per capita income. Two thousand Canadian dollars.
The automotive industry is also a disaster zone, with 20,000 jobs disappearing, manufacturing exports almost cut off, behind these cold numbers, a family's livelihoods, a community's decline.
This vulnerability makes Canada hardly have any bargaining chips at the negotiating table. Their only choice seems to be to suffer silently, or... find another way.
The roots of this structural dependence can be traced back to the free trade agreement decades ago, when it brought prosperity, but also filled the hidden dangers of today.
Trump's old opponent, Trudeau, has been shy down because of the poor deal with the relationship with the United States, Ontario's publicity this time, to some extent, is also a long-time outbreak of sentiment.
But emotions can't solve the problem. Trump's "America First", like a mirror, shows the Achilles' heel of Canadian economic model.
What is even more worrying is that this influence will never stop at the border line, and it will spread like a thunderstorm, eventually “punishing Detroit.”
American automakers are also affected, because many parts come from Canadian factories, and that's how the 280,000 jobs reported by the American Chamber of Commerce are calculated.
In the words of a Canadian financial expert: "Trump wants to punish Canada, but the result may be to punish Detroit."
It was like a dangerous gamble. On the other side of the gambling table, sat one's ally.
The pillar of trust is breaking
Trump waved a “economic lever”, but he may not realize that he broke, but was a “trust lever” to maintain American hegemony.
In international relations in the twenty-first century, the real core asset is no longer territory or armaments, but "trust".
The United States is leading the world not largely because of its economic and military strength, but because its allies believe that the United States is a predictable, rule-abiding, and reliable partner.
Trump’s actions are systematically destroying that trust.
He used economic means to coerce close allies with the same values, which made the world see an America under "America first", an America that can sacrifice the interests of allies at any time for domestic politics.
The absurdity of this behavior is accurately summed up in one sentence: "Declare war on your own shadow."
Canada is the shadow of the United States. They have similar cultures, the same values, and deeply intertwined economies. Attacking Canada is essentially attacking the order built by the United States itself.
During the Reagan era, the United States was a standard-bearer of free trade and a beacon for the Western world. He led the United States out of stagflation and won the Cold War.
And today’s Trump is pressing allies with “tax increases and blockades,” which is an irony of the era.
Canadian academics described it sharply: “It’s like the United States declaring war on its own shadow.”
This storm has also made people rethink: Is the United States suitable to be the leader of the global trade order?
If even the closest allies can’t trust their promises, how much appeal has the “American leadership” left?
The Reagan Foundation's statement also poured oil on the shock fire, which they first sparked and condemned advertising hours before Trump's post, which was an operation that indirectly supported Trump's back.
But from a deeper perspective, this illustrates precisely the rupture of internal values in the United States, and even the spiritual legacy of the former president has become a tool for domestic party disputes.
This collapse of trust is not a one-night break, it is the beginning of the domino effect.
The fall of an ally could trigger more allies to start looking for alternatives, which, once formed, would cost repairs far more than the cost of disruption.
Canada’s “advertising diplomacy,” which just ignited the fire, really exploded, is the internal cracks of the U.S. hegemony system.
The United States wanted to use economic leverage to maintain hegemony, but it found that its own hands cut off the most crucial pillar of trust, what a sadness, what an irony.
Forced to the corner of the wall, Canada’s only way to live is to the east.
Being so "stuck" by Trump, Canada can't sit still and wait for death. In desperation, they turn their attention to China in the east.
This move actually draws on India's experience. After India was imposed a 50% tariff by the United States before, Modi slowly eased the tariff pressure by visiting China and strengthening cooperation with BRICS countries.
For Canada, the benefits of cooperation with China are obvious. China is the largest buyer of Canadian rapeseed and an important purchaser of its energy products.
If we can expand the scale of exports of these two types of products, in the short term can rapidly increase revenue and alleviate employment pressure, in the long run can also gradually reduce the dependence on the U.S. market and rebuild more dollar supply chains.
Canada's automobile industry has lost 20,000 jobs due to US tariffs, and the export volume of manufacturing industry has been halved. If we don't find a new way out, the economy will only sink deeper and deeper.
Good relations with China can also increase the confidence of negotiating with the United States. If China buys more Canadian agricultural products, it may naturally reduce its purchase of American agricultural products, which is also a big constraint for the United States.
Of course, China takes a long-term view. In order to please Trump, Canada followed suit with high tariffs on China's electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products. China also took countermeasures at that time and imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, pork and other products.
Now Canada is actively looking for the door to talk, probably hoping that China can lift these countermeasures, and China will naturally also start from its own interests, striving for the due conditions of cooperation.
According to Canadian media disclosures, Prime Minister Carney is planning to meet with China during the APEC summit in South Korea, with the core aim of hoping to establish a strategic collaborative relationship with China.
The Canadian diplomatic team is also actively promoting, studying India's experience and thinking about how to strengthen cooperation with Asian countries, especially to establish closer economic ties with China.
Carney has communicated with senior Chinese officials in new york, and Canadian Foreign Minister Anand also visited China in mid-October to hold talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. China proposed to "eliminate interference and rebuild mutual trust" and released some goodwill, such as extending the anti-dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to 2026.
But the problem is that Canada’s credibility has been compromised, followed by U.S. sanctions on China a few months ago, and now hopes China will help, a “two-headed bet” that makes it difficult for Beijing to fully trust.
Beijing is also aware that Canada’s seeking Chinese support may be just a pretext, and once relations with the United States are eased, Canada may return to its old way of relying on the United States.
It can be seen that this diplomatic impact triggered by advertising is not only a trade storm, but also a realistic test of economic leverage, market dependence and strategic autonomy.
Canada wants to get rid of its dependence on the U.S. but can’t get away from the U.S. market, wants to get closer to China, and is concerned about affecting relations with allies, which means Canada’s strategic choices require more balance and patience.
Unilateral pressure alone can't take effect for a long time. The real strength comes from diversified markets and steady cooperation. The future outcome will depend on who can rebuild trust through practical actions beyond emotions.
conclusion
Trump’s swirling economic bullshit, ultimately crushing the trust pillar thatins U.S. hegemony, is the biggest irony.
In the future, whoever can take the lead in getting rid of emotions and rebuilding trust through practical actions will take the initiative in the multi-polar chess game.
Where will the world go when allies become bargaining chips? Canada's choice, will it be a preview of other countries?