Government shutdown: who is to benefit and who is to suffer?

in the above.From Budget Stagnation to Governing Weapons: The Political Transformation of the U.S. GovernmentIn this article, I analyze the reasons for the US government shutdown, the political significance, and the relationship between Trump and neoliberalism.In this article, I will further analyze the impact of the government shutdown on the victims and beneficiaries, the democracy system, and the global investment market.

Lockouts do not cause damage evenly, but are distributed and biased. Low-income, dependent on public services, and marginalized groups bear the brunt, while interest groups that traditionally benefit from large-scale public projects or have capital in energy and other fields may become "invisible winners".

For example, Among the federal employee groupIn the housing sector, although the specific figures have not been fully disclosed, media have pointed out that the Housing Choice Voucher Program (HUD) of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has suspended subsidy checks, affecting more than 2 million low-income households in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and other places.

A similar situation also happened in Food subsidy projectMiddle: The Department of Agriculture (USDA) suspended programs such as SNAP (American Supplementary Nutrition Association Program) and WIC (Special Supplementary Nutrition Program for Women, Babies and Children). About 40 million low-income people may lose food subsidies, most of whom are urban poor and ethnic minority families.

exist Environmental Protection and Flood PreventionGreen infrastructure projects in coastal or climate-fragile areas such as California, Louisiana, and New Jersey have been delayed due to federal funding freezes, directly exacerbating geographical and ecological inequalities.

Many federal employees facing the risk of unemployment impacted by the government shutdown have brought the discontent nine months since the Trump administration launched the “Schedule F” program to the recent “No Kings” anti-Trump rally.In early 2025, the Trump administration’s “Schedule F” plan would allow it to reclassify tens of thousands of civil servants as “politically appointed personnel” to facilitate withdrawal or dismissal.

In the long run, disruptions in public services, weakening social security networks, and declining local government response capabilities will increase social inequalities, weaken the livelihoods of underlying groups, and potentially trigger wider instability.

A demonstrator held a placard that read "Stop using federal employees as pawns" during the "No Kings" protest held in Washington, D.C. on Saturday. Sean Michael Newhouse/GovExec

At the same time, the shutdown not only weakened public services, but also Help some privileged groups benefit at the institutional levelIn the energy sector, the traditional fossil-fuel industry may have a temporary breathing space due to delays in clean energy projects, while the relevant capital and investments are likely to be arranged. For example, after the freeze on clean energy subsidies, NextEra Energy, one of the largest clean energy companies in the United States and the world's largest wind and solar power companyand the largest in the United States Solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturersOne of First SolarThe stock price dropped 15 percent in mid-October, while Oil and gas companies take the opportunity to obtain better profitability conditions and attract venture capital. For example, ExxonMobil, the largest multinational oil, natural gas and related chemical products giant in the United States、 Chevron (Chevron)The share price bucked the trend and rose about 3-5%.

Although the media has not disclosed the complete data system, analysis pointed out that in the market response, clean energy stocks fell sharply, and traditional energy stocks rose against the trend. Energy Transfer Partners and affiliated investor networks, which have close political and financial ties with the Trump family, took advantage of the situation to add to traditional energy assets.The network of investors includes Rick Perry (former energy minister), policy adviser Thomas Pyle (former ExxonMobil adviser), longtime informal energy adviser Harold Hamm (founder of Continental Resources), the Koch Network and its affiliate fund for the Republican Governor Alliance, and more.

As by several media outlets, including the BBC, A mysterious donor allegedly a Trump supporter donated $1.3 billion to the U.S. military to pay for military personnel during the government shutdown.。Prior to this, the Trump administration last week misappropriated $8 billion in military research funds to pay military salaries. What kind of secret lies behind this mysterious huge donation remains for us to further investigate.

02 Why does the shutdown in 2025 have completely different meanings?

Although there have been many government shutdowns in U.S. history (there have been more than 20 funding gaps since 1976), several characteristics of this 2025 round are particularly critical.

First of all, Its duration could equal or exceed the record-breaking 35-day shutdown in 2018-19.。Moreover, although the shutdown in 18-19 was long, it was mainly due to Trump's battle with Congress in the White House for funding for the border wall. This time, its political goals are no longer focused on a given allocation, but rather Changes in the overall administrative structure and budget control。

And then this round stops. With stronger selectivity and instrumentalized characteristics。In the past, the shutdown was mostly due to the fact that the two parties did not reach an agreement, but they still tended to maintain a neutral state; the intention behind the shutdown in 2025 is clearer: to restructure policy priorities through funding freezes, project suspensions, and institutional cuts.

In addition, Project 2025, represented by current budget director Russ Vought, Promote the restructuring of government scale and functions。Walter was the director of the Office of Budget Management (OMB) under Trump and the head of the right-wing think tank Center for Renewal America. The Project 2025 he proposed is not a purely administrative reform plan, but a process A political project aimed at combining fiscal austerity, bureaucratic cleansing and cultural conservatism to “re-build the American government.”Its core vision is to create a system by freezing federal appropriations, cutting welfare budgets, limiting administrative regulatory powers, cutting federal labor by 30 percent, and outsourcing regulatory functions to the private sector, and establishing a “loyalty screening mechanism” to clear “deep state” officials. Fast and light."administrative machine (refer to the author's previous"The Trump Administration's "fast governance" experiment in immigration and education: efficiency revolution or institutional tearing?》）。

Roosevelt, the designer of the "Project 2025", has been identified as the head of the Budget Office, thus consolidating his position in the core power of the White House.

The spirit of Walter and the 2025 Plan is in line with this government shutdown: passed Government shutdowns, layoffs, divestments, agency mergersand other means to transform administrative "failure" into a kind of political capital and package the paralysis of government functions as an anti-elite and anti-establishment victory. Its ultimate goal is not to improve governance efficiency, but to achieve re-concentration of power through administrative destruction, so that " Failure of governance is political successIt is a new political logic.

Thirdly, This shutdown was accompanied by institutional cuts and threats of mass layoffs, which have not been common in previous lockdowns。 Media reports pointed out that the White House Budget Office estimated that more than 10,000 federal workers would be fired, and the court also accepted relevant lawsuits, pointing out that they were "politically motivated".

and finally, In the global economic and financial environment, government shutdowns are facing not only domestic strikes, but the spread of global governance and investment risks.。 The fiscal shutdown has impacted the credibility, credit rating and market confidence of the U.S. government. For example, Scope, a European rating agency, warned that the shutdown exposed the weakening of governance capabilities caused by political polarization in the United States, which may damage its national credit rating. Therefore, the shutdown is not only a field of domestic political games, but also a node for the reconstruction of global capital, market and institutional trust. This shutdown mechanism implies a risk of "normalization of governance paralysis".

As a result, the stagnation caused the dollar to weaken, gold to rise, and investors to refrain from risk. More seriously, cash gold fell by more than 5% in just one day after it approached its historic high (about $4,381 per ounce) and achieved its biggest one-day drop in the years. As a result, investors had previously placed “risk asset” gold in a risk environment, but with the shift to U.S. governance and policy expectations (such as interest rate changes, fiscal policy loosening), gold was temporarily withdrawn from the role of refuge. Gold was a haven when the traditional system “or government trust” was weakened, and its large volatility itself reflected anxiety about the system, government stability and macro-policy credibility.

As of the time of issue, the conventional consultation mechanisms between Congress and the administration had not yet worked: White House high-level talks failed, the annual military spending bill was blocked in the House, the division continued, and the overall negotiations stalled. In this context, the release of key macro data was delayed, regulatory operations were limited, making investors and policymakers more uncertain about the economic direction; at the county government level, Federal grants and project approval delays, daily coordination with federal agencies is blocked, Municipal projects and community projects are therefore under pressure and can only be adjusted。

From now on, we should not only pay attention to when this shutdown will end and the budget will be approved, but also carefully think about whether the legitimacy of public governance, the foundation of institutional trust and the sustainability of * operation are being eroded step by step in the increasingly frequent institutional interruptions. This time, the shutdown of the U.S. government brought not only the loss of the ledger, but also the profound reconstruction of the political system and governance logic.

This article is published exclusively in Tencent News.