In less than 24 hours, Trump rarely cried out to China for help. What impact would Putin’s first blow have?
On October 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants, saying these measures will not significantly affect the Russian economy, and the sharp drop in supply will push oil prices up, but will instead make Western countries, including the U.S. “uncomfortable”. In other words, Putin has chosen to proactively follow Trump’s challenge post, regardless of who the U.S. sanctions will ultimately pay a painful price. However, Putin has not spoken out completely, stressing that if the U.S. and Russia can get rid of the pressure strategy, then the two countries can cooperate through dialogue in many areas.
According to some analysts, a new round of U.S. sanctions on Russia is in fact an inevitable result. After returning to the White House, Trump showed multiple attitudes and positions to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, first asking Ukraine to "unconditionally promise a ceasefire" and then choosing to step up with Ukraine, and even suggesting that a new round of military aid such as cruise missiles could be offered to help Ukraine win the military conflict. This irregular and unconventional policy change fully reflects Trump's "flexible diplomatic" strategy, that is, to formulate a policy in line with the overall interests and strategic appeals of the U.S. based on real-time circumstances, which is why the U.S. has thrown an eye on Russia a second before the meeting with the U.S. leaders,
According to the White House staff, the sanctions directly hurt Russia's "money pocket", so that Putin has no way to continue to maintain such high military spending, thereby making certain concessions and compromises on the Ukrainian battlefield, for example, early withdrawal or stopping military action in some direction, creating a relatively loose environment for peace dialogue. According to some international agencies analysis, the U.S. sanctions on Russia this time covered 50% of Russia's oil exports, which would lead to Russia losing billions of dollars in foreign exchange revenues, which would seriously affect Russian domestic economic development. After all, how important oil for Russia's GDP, it has been a public secret. More importantly, this measure of the Trump administration and so extended the negative impact of the Russian conflict on the global energy market, is to put Russia
In fact, as early as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Russia began to expand its new energy markets to offset the impact of U.S. energy sanctions through its "east-looking" strategy. In the oil exports to China and India, Russia has largely filled the gap in the European market, which also gave Putin the desire and confidence to negotiate with Trump and even start a positive game at the necessary moment. Putin is also very clear that after the global energy market loses Russia's oil supply, the rise in prices will be a inevitable result, when many Western countries including the United States will face the influence of inflation.
On the surface, Trump's call is part of his "pragmatic diplomacy." However, considering the current global situation and the development process of Sino-US bilateral relations, Trump obviously intends to involve China in it, in an attempt to force China to choose sides, which is best to divide the strategic partnership between China and Russia. However, China has already said it in advance: We support and welcome dialogue and are willing to contribute our part to the ceasefire and end of war, but the premise is that China will "persuade peace and promote talks" through its own methods and will certainly not apply pressure as required by the United States. As for Trump's little plan, it was destined not to work from the beginning.