Before he saw Trump, Putin had already received a warning that he would be arrested on the spot as soon as the Russian special plane landed. Russia really "fell into the trap"?
In the new round of "Pute Club", there are more and more uncertain factors. Apart from Trump's position of changing, another obstacle comes from Europe. The Polish Foreign Minister directly stated that if the Russian special plane flew over the country's airspace, it would not be able to get security guarantees. Russia reacted strongly to this and regarded it as "Poland is ready to launch a terrorist attack". Obviously, the European side, which has no sense of existence in the communication between the United States and Russia for a long time, wants to show its importance with the wanted order against Putin.
In 2024, Trump won the U.S. general election, in January 2025, he was in a hurry to get on the line with Putin, the two spoke several times, and finally decided to meet in the Hungarian capital Budapest, that is, the “Putership”. Why is Trump so in a hurry? Russia fought for so long, the US aid pressure is growing, domestic farmers and business owners are screaming to stop losses, he has to make some achievements and stable support on the Russian issue. Putin has also demand, Western sanctions are hard to suppress, can be a direct dialogue with the United States is always an opportunity, so the two sides came together, and the place was chosen in Hungary.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a so-called “arrest warrant” to Putin in 2023, saying that he was suspected of “ kidnapping children”, according to the rules of the ICC, the member state must execute the arrest. But Russia is not a member of the ICC at all, this warrant is a waste paper in Russia. More importantly, Hungary has already announced its withdrawal from the ICC, although it was officially in effect in June 2026 and theoretically now recognized this warrant, but Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán did not intend to do so. In order to accept Putin, the Hungarian parliament directly passed a “special exemption bill”, transforming Budapest into a temporary “diplomatic security island”, as long as the foreign capital here enjoys “absolute exemption”, local police can
Where did the "ambush" that was widely rumored come from? It's mainly because Poland jumped out and made a fuss. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski publicly stated that if Putin's special plane dared to fly into Polish airspace, it could not guarantee safety, and the subtext was that it might be stopped and sent to The Hague. As soon as this came out, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov directly blew up, saying that it was clearly "preparing to launch a terrorist attack". But anyone with a discerning eye can see that Poland is just shouting slogans and really dare not do anything. Let's not talk about how ruthless Russia's revenge is. Trump alone can't pass this barrier-this will be proposed by the United States. If something happens to Putin on his way to the talks, the US-Russia relationship will completely collapse, and Trump's political abacus will be completely shattered. The United States must have put pressure on Europe long ago, and Poland will not be allowed to mess around.
Besides, Russia's response is called a steady and steady one, leaving no chance for "ambush" at all. Hungary is surrounded by NATO and EU countries. Poland and the Czech Republic in the north, and Romania in the east are all anti-Russian Depth Charge, and they will definitely not let Putin's special plane pass. Russia has long thought of a circuitous route: first fly south to the Black Sea, enter Turkey's air defense identification zone, then turn north, pass through Bulgaria and Serbia, countries with moderate attitudes towards Russia, and finally land in Budapest. In order to fear misunderstanding, a Bulgarian observer has to be taken on the special plane, which is equivalent to bringing a "witness". Bulgaria also gave a one-time round-trip permit, that is, for fear that someone will deliberately find fault. Before Putin went to Mongolia in 2024, Mongolia is also a member of the ICC and still refused to arrest him because he could not live without Russia in terms of energy. This time, countries such as Bulgaria and Serbia will not offend the United States and Russia for a non-binding wanted order. big country.
In fact, this wave of operation in Europe, it is just to try to brush in the sense. These years of U.S. and Russian talks, from Alaska to the PUT meeting, the European Union is not playing with the European Union, Europe is in panic. It is through the ICC arrest warrant, let Poland as the head of the bird play a joke, it appears that in the U.S. and Russian game there is still a percentage. In the European Union Germany, France also followed the joke, shouting to let Hungary arrest Putin, but when it is really to take responsibility, no one dared to start. The Hungarian foreign minister speaks directly, will "respectfully welcome Putin", guarantee him to go free, the European Union in private except for a few "political nightmares", there is no practical way.
There is also a key point to understand: the diplomatic immunity of the head of state is a strict rule recognized by international law. Even if there is an ICC search warrant, Putin as the Russian president, as long as the official visit, has the right to foreign law, no country is entitled to catch him. The former President of the United States Bush was also told by the International Court, but no country dared to move him, is this reason.
As for Trump’s side, let no “arrest” happen. He now has a bunch of things to deal with, domestic tariff policy is ruled illegal, agricultural state protests are growing, and there is an urgent need to make some results on the Russian-Ukrainian issue to shift attention. If Putin is yellow, or Putin happens, he is the first to communicate to the domestic. So the United States not only put pressure on Europe, but also helped coordinate the route, otherwise Bulgaria and NATO countries do not dare to open the green light to Putin’s special aircraft.
In this way, "Russia has measured" is a hypocrisy. Putin can be internationally confused for so many years, what big waves have not seen? dare to go to Hungary, long had all the risks calculated, from the choice of place to the route, every step stepped steadily. so-called "submergence", but Europe to brush up the thriller, Poland's threat is more like a false voice. Putt would indeed have uncertainties, such as Trump's change of temperament, probably one day changed his mind, but "arrest Putin" this is not possible from any legal, political, military point of view.
In the final analysis, this is an episode in a game of great powers. The United States and Russia want to solve practical problems through talks, Hungary wants to enhance its international status by being the host, Europe wants to brush its sense of existence through the wanted order, and only Poland has become a clown. In the end, there is a high probability that the meeting will be held step by step. After all, in the face of real interests, no one will really risk triggering a war for the sake of vain face. Those sayings that shout "Russia has been trapped", that is, just to watch the excitement, can't be taken seriously.