At 3:17 a.m. on October 25, 2025, Kiev citizen Kovac was awakened by a deafening explosion. He rushed to the window and saw the night sky in the southwest turned orange-red by fire-that was where Kiev's No. 6 Thermal Power Plant was located, and thick smoke was rising from the ruins. At the same time, air defense sirens in Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnipropetrovsk and other cities sounded simultaneously. The all-wide bombing launched by the Russian army plunged Ukraine into a dark winter ahead of schedule.

The most shocking thing about this air strike, which the Ukrainian military called "the most intensive since the beginning of the war", is not the wide range of the bombing, but the fact that the Russian army has invested the legendary "Iskander-1000" in actual combat for the first time. ballistic missile. The missile launched from the Kapustin Yar test site flew more than 600 kilometers and accurately hit the Kiev Radio Factory. With a range of 1,000 kilometers, it announced a qualitative change in Russia's long-range strike capability, and also made Putin's judgment of "no longer kind-hearted" become a cruel reality.

The Morning Horror: The Dark Moment of the Fall of Eight States

The bombing on October 25 began at midnight. The Russian army adopted a three-dimensional strike mode of "missile path clearance + drone replenishment + gliding bomb cleaning" and completed a full coverage strike on key facilities in Ukraine within three hours. An emergency notification issued by the Kiev Municipal Military Administration at 5 a.m. showed that four of the city's six major thermal power plants were directly hit. Among them, No. 6 Thermal Power Plant and No. 5 Thermal Power Plant were completely damaged, and Tripilia Thermal Power Plant was forced to close due to continuous burning, and the only remaining power supply capacity was not enough to support basic livelihood needs.

"We originally prepared a temporary power supply plan and started the backup unit between air strikes, but the second wave of missiles accurately hit the substation, and all efforts were in vain." Valery, an engineer at Kiev Energy Company, said in a hoarse voice in an interview. Videos taken by local residents show that the streets of Kiev in the early morning are dark, all traffic lights are out, citizens queue up to charge outside a few convenience stores equipped with generators, cell phone signals are intermittent, and ambulance horns are particularly harsh on the silent streets.

Kharkiv's experience was even more tragic. Fifteen Russian missiles successively hit energy clusters in the northeastern part of the city, causing the explosion of three substation stations and causing a secondary fire in the northern residential area due to a ruptured gas pipeline. A local hospital spokesperson revealed that due to the exhaustion of fuel from the backup generator, some critically ill patients were forced to relocate, and the neonatal incubator once relied on batteries to maintain its operation. In Kherson in the south, the attack on the Kaniv Hydropower Station and Kremenchuk Hydropower Station not only cut off water and electricity supply to surrounding areas, but also triggered small-scale floods. Rescuers moved trapped people in waist-deep water.

The most worrying is the new threat to Odessa. Local officials confirmed for the first time that the Russian Air Force Su-34 bomber dropped a long-range sliding guided bomb 50 kilometers from the coastline, hitting a fuel reserve base. This bomb with an UMPK sliding kit has a range of up to 200 kilometers, meaning that the Russian military aircraft can directly hit the deep cities of Kiev, Lviv and others without having to enter the Ukrainian air defense circle.

As of noon on the 25th, the Ukrainian national energy operator confirmed that 50% of the country's power generation capacity had been destroyed, and eight states including Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblast had entered a "comprehensive energy emergency". The representative of the International Energy Agency in Ukraine warned that if the attacks continue, Ukraine will face "the worst winter energy crisis since the conflict" and millions of people may lose heating and electricity.

Killer: Strategic Deterrence of Iskander-1000

The most remarkable breakthrough of the bombing was the real-world debut of the Russian military's new "Iskander-1000" ballistic missile, which was tracked by Western intelligence agencies for two years, and finally unveiled the mysterious veil in the October 25 air strike, its performance parameters and strategic significance radically changed the situation on the battlefield.

As an upgraded model of the Iskander-M, the core breakthrough of the Iskander-1000 lies in the doubling of its range. Public data show that its prototype M missile range is about 500 kilometers, while the upgraded model by increasing the solid fuel reserves by 10%-15% and optimizing engine performance, the conventional head-down range is up to 1000 kilometers, and with a special head extends to 1,300 kilometers. On October 25th, the launch site in Kapskyyar test site is more than 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian direct control line, this choice ensures both the safety of the launch platform and accurately verifies the missile's over-range strike capability.

More threatening is its precision strike capability and diversity of warheads. The missile used a composite guidance system and was controlled within 30 meters CEP with a precision of 30 meters CEP by a conduit + satellite navigation combined with an end-end radar / image matching guidance, sufficient to destroy an enhanced industrial facility. In the October 25 attack, the missile hit the radio station of Kiev directly at the top of the main factory, the explosion formed a bullet hole up to 15 meters in diameter, completely destroying the factory's drone engine production line - this is one of the core targets of the Russian army's attack.

In the configuration of the bullethead, the Iskander-1000 can carry high-explosion bulletheads, drilling ground bulletheads, cluster bulletheads and air explosion burning bulletheads to implement precision destruction against different targets. The combustion bulletheads used when striking heat plants can trigger continuous high-temperature fires, prevent repair personnel from approaching; the drilling ground bulletheads are used when attacking hydropower plants, penetrating concrete dam causing structural damage. Military expert Zhu Yuhyun pointed out that this "one bullet multi-power" feature allows the Russian army to effective strikes on multiple targets through a single launch system, and the flexibility of combat is greatly improved.

The mass production and deployment of the Iskander-1000 also disrupted Europe's strategic balance. Its 1000-kilometer range covers almost the entire of Eastern Europe, and it can hit forward bases in NATO member states such as Poland and Romania when launched from Russia. More importantly, the missile adopts a vehicle-mounted mobile launch mode. The launch vehicle can be reloaded in 30 minutes. A missile brigade can launch 24 missiles at a time, forming a saturated strike situation. This capability means that the Russian army can paralyze the core infrastructure of a medium-sized country in a short period of time, and its strategic deterrence far exceeds traditional tactical missiles.

For Ukraine, the appearance of the Iskander-1000 puts its air defense system in a situation of "unavoidable, unbearable." Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Ignat admitted that the existing air defense system's success rate of intercepting this high-speed displacement missile is extremely low, "it is difficult to predict its flight trajectory, leaving only a few minutes to the air defense system's response time."

Third, energy hanging: Putin¡¯s ¡°armed winter¡± strategy

The mass bombing of October 25 is essentially a concentrated reflection of the Russian military's "armed cold winter" strategy, this tactic of systematic destruction of energy facilities and weakening the will of the enemy people's resistance, showed unprecedented intensity and accuracy in this air strike, behind the strategic shift of the Putin administration after three years of play.

Looking back at the course of the conflict, the Russian army¡¯s strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities have evolved from ¡°experimental attacks¡± to ¡°systematic destruction¡±.The airstrikes in the winter of 2022 targeted mainly power transmission lines, the Ukrainian army can still rebuild and restore power supply; in 2023 it turned to power stations and power plants, but the strike frequency was lower, retaining part of the critical production capacity; and the strike in 2025 was characterized by ¡°full coverage, high frequency, repeat explosion¡± with the aim of completely paralyzing the energy system.

This shift stems from multiple strategic considerations. From a battlefield perspective, Ukraine's energy resilience has exceeded the Russian army's expectations-in the winter of 2024, the Ukrainian army barely maintained the supply of people's livelihood by importing 2,100 megawatts of electricity and reserving natural gas. However, in 2025, the Russian army adjusted its tactics, first destroying natural gas storage facilities in the west, and then attacking mining bases in the east. As a result, Ukraine's domestic natural gas production dropped by 40%, and the storage capacity of foreign companies dropped to zero, completely cutting off the "two legs" of energy supply. The air strike destroyed half of the power generation capacity, resulting in a double collapse of "electricity and gas".

From the perspective of psychological warfare, the "cold-winter distress" has far exceeded the loss of people's will on the battlefield. Citizens of Kiev described on social media: "In 2022 we have candles and generators, in 2023 there is an EU aid heater, in 2025 we will only be left with cold and darkness."Hospital in Kharkov has seen serious cases of deaths of patients due to heating disruptions, and 30,000 residents of Chernivtsi are forced to seek refuge in zero-down temperatures. This sense of despair is the strategic effect that the Russian military hopes to - by destroying the people's livelihood base, forcing compromising pressure within Ukrainian society.

The more hidden strategic intention is to tear the Western aid alliance through the energy crisis. Ukrainian President Zelensky flew to Washington for help on the day of the air strike, but the 20 Patriot air defense systems and Tomahawk missiles on his list faced political resistance in the United States. The Trump administration has made it clear that it is dissatisfied with the cost of aid to Ukraine. However, due to European countries' own energy shortages, the upper limit of power aid to Ukraine can only be increased to 2,100 megawatts, which is far from enough to fill the 50% production capacity gap. The Russian army clearly saw through this weakness and created a "bottomless pit of aid" through continuous bombing, shaking the determination of the West to support it.

In the air strike, the Russian military used a combination of "drone consumption + missile assault": first flying more than 300 suicide drones to attract the Ukrainian air defense firepower, waiting for the air defense missiles to be exhausted, then launching the Iskander-1000 and cruise missiles to precisely hit core targets. This tactic directly led to the failure of the Western-aided air defense system - the British Financial Times revealed that the interception rate of the Patriot system on Russian missiles in September 2025 has fallen to 6%, compared with the 37% crash fall in August.

The myth of air defense is broken: Why can¡¯t Western weapons stop Russian bombing?

In the October 25 air strikes, the NATO air defense system deployed by Ukraine almost completely failed, demonstrating the cruel reality of "thousands of missiles are useless."This failure was not accidental, but the result of a combination of technical overlap, tactical deterrence and system defects, which completely broke the "mythical ring" of Western weapons.

The fall of the Patriot air defense system is most representative. The star weapon, claimed by the U.S. to have "intercepted more than 70%", struck Waterloo on the Ukrainian battlefield. The intercept rate in September 2025 was only 6%, meaning that only one in 16 Russian military missiles could be successfully intercepted. Iskander-1000 has the capability of terminal orbit change and can perform irregular maneuvers during flight, causing the Patriot's radar tracking system to fail; At the same time, it is equipped with decoy bombs and electronic jamming devices, which can create false targets and consume valuable interceptors.

What is even more fatal is the "fragmentation" dilemma of the Ukrainian army's air defense system. Ukraine is equipped with a variety of NATO air defense systems such as Patriot, Buk, and NASAMS. However, these weapons come from different countries, and the command chain, radar signals, and operating specifications are incompatible with each other, making it impossible to form a unified defense-in-depth network. In the face of the saturation attack of the Russian army, each system is fighting independently, making it difficult to respond coordinately. For example, Kiev's Patriot system intercepted one missile, but failed to share data in time, causing another missile to break through Kharkiv's Buk defense line.

The Russian army's "cheap precision strike" tactics further amplified the Ukrainian army's defensive disadvantage. The gliding guided bombs widely used in this air strike were modified by the Russian military using Soviet inventory bombs and UMPK gliding kits. The cost of a single bomb is only US $40,000, far lower than the cruise missile of US $1.5 million. This kind of bomb has a range of up to 200 kilometers, and the Su-34 bomber can escape unscathed by dropping bombs at an altitude of 40-50 kilometers, exceeding the range of the Ukrainian short-range air defense system. Since 2025, the Russian army has dropped 3,000 such bombs every month, using "low-cost saturation" to consume the Ukrainian army's expensive anti-aircraft missiles, forming an asymmetric advantage of "affordable but unable to stop".

Even though the United States and NATO pledged to provide air defense aid, the actual delivery is far from consumption-consumed ¨C Ukraine consumes about 500 air defense missiles per month, while NATO¡¯s monthly production capacity is only 300. More importantly, the core technology is always blocked by Ukraine: Patriotic systems software upgrades require U.S. engineers to operate, parts supply cycles last for up to two months, leading to multiple systems being unable to fight due to failures. Military experts point out that this ¡°limited aid¡± is essentially to allow Ukraine to ¡°fill the air defense gap with blood and flesh¡± and can not fundamentally change the defensive disadvantages.

5. Putin's "Three Years of Endurance": From Restraint to Comprehensive Pressure

"Putin no longer chooses goodness" is Russia's strategic decision after three years of conflict.This shift is not an emotional "unbearable" but a rational choice based on the situation on the battlefield, the international environment and the domestic public opinion, marking the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entering a new stage of the most cruel.

The so-called "three-year-old ninja", in fact, is the process of the Russian military's strategic trial and adjustment.In the beginning of the conflict in 2022, the Russian army adopted a "precise strike military targets" withdrawal strategy to avoid attacking people's livelihoods facilities; in 2023 turned to strike the energy system, but retained the core production capacity; in 2024 the Ukrainian army raided Kursk state and other Russian indigenous targets, touching the Russian "red line", Putin began to strengthen retaliation.

Putin's strategic logic is clear and ruthless: by destroying the foundation of Ukraine's people's livelihood, he can achieve triple goals. First, it weakens the Ukrainian army's ability to continue combat-energy shortages have led to the stagnation of military production and the interruption of frontline equipment supplies; Second, create social unrest-the people's livelihood crisis caused by the blackout may intensify internal contradictions in Ukraine and shake the foundation of the Zelensky government's rule; Third, force the West to compromise-when Ukraine becomes a "bottomless pit", the Western aid alliance may collapse due to domestic pressure. Judging from the reaction of the West after the air strikes on October 25, this strategy has begun to bear fruit: there have been calls within the EU to "suspend aid to Ukraine", and the U.S. Congress's review of the new aid bill has reached a deadlock.

After three years of war, the Russian people's attitude toward "special military operations" shifted from "expecting a quick victory" to "supporting a comprehensive solution."Putin has repeatedly stressed in recent speeches that "compromise on Ukraine will only exchange for greater security threats," this statement has received domestic mainstream popular support. The explosion of the military-industrial system's capacity has further enhanced the bottom line - the Iskander-1000 has entered mass production and the monthly production of 3,000 flying guided bombs, ensuring continued strike capabilities.

For Ukraine, Putin¡¯s strategic shift meant that ¡°the toughest winter¡± had arrived. Kiev Mayor Kritchko acknowledged that the city¡¯s energy reserves could only last for two weeks if the Russian army continued bombing, ¡°Kiev could completely shut down before mid-November¡±. The feeling of despair in the general public is spreading: the sign of ¡°peace negotiations¡± appeared in the streets of Kharkov, a new high since the conflict. Zelensky¡¯s appeal to Washington has been ¡°verbal promise¡±, but the actual date of aid is still unknown.

Title: The Cold Winter War

The night sky of Kiev on October 25, illuminated simultaneously by the blasted lights and the candles of the people. The former represents the cruel escalation of war, the latter symbolizes the will of resistance to survive. When the tail flame of the Iskander-1000 broke the horizon, when the sound of the blast of the flying bombs revolved over the city, the Russian conflict has gone beyond the scope of "military confrontation" and evolved into a war of consumption about survival.

Putin's "no longer kind-hearted" is essentially to use the most primitive means of destruction to test the bottom line of Ukraine's resistance and the upper limit of Western aid. The fate of Ukraine hangs between the ruins of energy facilities and the promise of Western aid. This early cold winter not only tests the survival resilience of the Ukrainian people, but also tests the morality and wisdom of the international community.

The outcome of the war is not yet known, but the bombing on October 25 has left a clear mark: when modern weapons are aimed at the foundation of people's livelihood, there are no winners, only endless cold and darkness. Emergency lights on the streets of Kiev may still be on for a few days, but lighting the way out of this war requires much more than electricity-and rationality and compromise that transcend hatred. Before all this came, winter in Ukraine had just begun.