The Budapest meeting between the U.S. and Russian heads of state suddenly stalled. The protagonists of this play, Trump, Zelensky and Putin, each calculated and staged a geopolitical game comparable to a black comedy.
The incident originated from a "fruitful" phone call between President Trump and President Putin on October 16, when the two sides announced in a high-profile manner that they would hold a face-to-face meeting in Budapest, Hungary. However, just five days later, Trump told reporters at the White House that the meeting plans were "shelved" on the grounds that he did not want to hold a "meaningless meeting" and "waste time." This summit, which has been supported by the media for several days, is like a inflated balloon that was gently punctured by a thin needle called "Reality" before it even took off, leaving a bit of embarrassment.
So, why did this highly anticipated meeting go from "official announcement" to "yellow" so quickly? On the surface, the direct reason is that Russia, through the mouth of Foreign Minister Lavrov, rejected Trump's proposal of "immediate ceasefire" and "freezing the current front". The Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas region is contrary to the U.S. quick solution of "ceasefire on the spot and each declaring victory." On a deeper level, the Trump administration's goal is to create a "diplomatic achievement" that can be shown to domestic voters as soon as possible, even if the foundation of this achievement is like quicksand.
When it was found that Putin was unwilling to cooperate with this "peace show", Trump quickly withdrew to avoid the embarrassment of another "empty talk". This sharp change in attitude is also reflected in his recent repeated swings in policy toward Ukraine, from claiming that Ukraine is expected to "win back all its territory" and considering providing "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, to once again calling for a "ceasefire on the spot." The core mentality lies in the pursuit of personal diplomatic achievements brought about by a rapid ceasefire, rather than substantive post-war arrangements.
Another parallel line of the show is the growing tension and even public contradiction between Trump and President Zelensky of Ukraine. Remember, the relationship between the two has long been filled with cracks. At the end of February this year, when Zelensky visited the White House, the two sides played a "century dispute", and eventually Zelensky was "invited" out of the White House in advance, and the original mineral agreement could not be signed.
During the dispute, Trump stood high accusing Zelensky of "not being eligible to give orders to our feelings" and even threatening to hint at his poor situation. The unhappy meeting clearly showed that Trump's patience with Zelensky was exhausting, and he saw Ukraine as a "barrier" to his short-term political goals rather than an equal ally.
Trump's core demand is for Zelensky to make a major compromise on territorial issues, such as abandoning the entire Donbas region to quickly achieve a ceasefire, which touches the bottom line acceptable to Ukraine. Although Zelensky was under tremendous pressure and had to bow to Trump and try talks, he was obviously unwilling to fully cooperate with this "political show" that might sacrifice Ukraine's core interests. What added to the drama was an "aerial puzzle" on President Putin's way to the meeting-the Polish airspace issue.
From Moscow to Budapest, crossing Poland’s airspace was the most direct route, however, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski openly stated that it could not guarantee the safety of President Putin’s aircraft while crossing Poland’s airspace, and even hinted that Polish courts could require the government to take measures to force the aircraft to land on the basis of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Putin.
The statement, which is nothing more than the establishment of an invisible “non-fly zone” on the route of Putin’s visit, is of great symbolic significance: it shows that the legal and political contradictions provoked by the conflict in Russia have profoundly eroded the basic mutual trust between nations and can even directly interfere with the technical feasibility of diplomatic communication at the highest level.
While Bulgaria, another NATO member, has quickly expressed its willingness to provide airspace facilities, this refusal has exposed profound differences within the EU and NATO in strategies towards Russia.
Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Russian Security Council, once ridiculed Zelensky's "cruel reprimand" when commenting on the White House quarrel in February. Now the Kremlin may also be looking at the dispute across the Atlantic and its allies with calm or even slightly mocking eyes. And Putin, at least in the current round, may sigh with a slight sarcasm: This play is really interesting.