U.S. trade representatives suddenly moved to Malaysia, China and the United States will face the fifth round of trade confrontation, and Trump once again spoke: tariffs on China have been raised from 100% to 155%.
This sounds quite frightening, but a little bit of understanding is clear, this is the same as when the trade war just started in 2018, to say the truth is to try to put pressure on China to make concessions.
What's more interesting is that not long after he finished his malicious words, he then said, "I believe we can negotiate an agreement with China." He also mentioned that he wanted to visit China in early 2026-isn't this a typical fight and pull? To put it bluntly, it is for domestic voters in the United States.
After all, the midterm elections are approaching, and you have to pretend to pull the ballot in a tough way, but you are afraid that the market will really collapse, and you will not be able to finish.
In addition to this obvious tariff threat, the United States also hides another trick: the US Treasury Secretary rushed to Malaysia with his economic and trade team. On the surface, he said he wanted to solve the problem of rare earth control, but in fact he wanted to bypass China and build a new supply chain.
You know, Malaysia occupies an important position in global rare earth processing, and the United States wants to pull these countries in Southeast Asia to build a production line without China ingredients. In order to make this happen, they also secretly made a wish to Australia, saying that they would speed up the delivery of nuclear submarines to Australia. They obviously wanted to use small military moves to add more chips to trade negotiations.
But in fact, I have been tired of watching this routine for a long time. Starting from February 2025, the United States has used fentanyl as an excuse to increase tariffs. Later, it included more than 50 Chinese high-tech companies in the entity list. Now it is just changing the name. It has been replaced with rare earths, and even the way of pressure has not been changed.
But these tricks have long been revealed. say a 155% tariff, if a Chinese-made commodity was originally sold for $ 100, now you have to pay $ 155 tax alone, which is restricting trade, is simply blocking the road.
Before the tariffs were added to 145%, the U.S. stock lost $ 4 trillion in market value in half a month, the price of household appliances, food in the U.S. supermarkets increased, the people began to store things, these bills Trump can not be counted.
Looking at the containment of rare earths, where are the U.S. Geological Survey's numbers: China's rare earth reserves account for half of the world's rare earth reserves (nearly 49%), and its output accounts for 70%, not to mention that the refining and separation technology is among the best in the world. There is no way to find an alternative in a short time.
China's "immunity": control is accurate, response is prepared
With these two sets of tactics from the United States, China is no longer as passive as before. To put it bluntly, it is already "immune". Let's look at the key card of rare earths first. The new regulations just released in October are particularly accurate-not only domestic rare earth mines and smelted products, but also foreign things containing Chinese ingredients.
As long as the value of China's rare earth technology accounts for more than 0.1% of the product, it must obtain a license before it can be exported. More importantly, from the leaching process of rare earth mining to the sintering technology of magnetic materials, even the drawing parameters and how to maintain the production line are not allowed to be passed on casually, which is equivalent to strangling the "key point" of the global rare earth industry chain.
The Ministry of Commerce has made it clear: it is not that exports are not prohibited. Companies that comply should be approved back. If emergency humanitarian purposes are involved, they can be exempted. This not only maintains the bottom line of security, but also does not interrupt normal trade.
As a leading enterprise in rare earth in the north, the new rules followed the export process; the price of rare earth minerals in the fourth quarter, also moved to 26205 yuan and one ton, the domestic production capacity and technical reserves are here, not afraid of the U.S. side.
Looking at the United States, it used to want to rely on rare earth minerals from Australia and Canada to make up for the gap, but their refining technology couldn't keep up. It would take at least five years to build a processing plant. Now it is eager to ask Malaysia for help. It is purely temporary and useless.
China has already saved enough experience in dealing with the tariffs.At the Geneva talks in May 2025, the United States lifted the 91% tariff, and China followed the adjustment, which has long been the game of the United States.
In recent years, China has been expanding overseas markets, using RCEP and “One Belt and One Road” to move products originally sold to the United States to Southeast Asia and Europe.
More importantly, the domestic industrial chain is upgrading, such as the sky and magnets have crushed the 850 million permanent magnetic materials projects, which is to deal with external fluctuations in advance - even if the US does add tariffs, the domestic market can digest most of the production capacity.
The United States wants to rely on the "tariff threat + supply chain pressure" to engage in a double strike, but China has already done it.In the WTO, the case of prosecution of U.S. tariff violations has been advancing; the domestic "Rare Land Management Regulations" was introduced last year, from rare land mining to application, all links have supervision, policy and policy are tightly linked.
Trump thought he could put pressure on November 1 as the deadline, but when the APEC summit was just over, China had time to spend with him, after all, now the initiative is in our hands.
Behind the confrontation: Who is really anxious and who has determination
In the final analysis, this fifth round of confrontation is not whose words are more ruthless, but the strategic determination of both sides. The U.S. side looks quite arrogant, but in fact there are piles of troubles outside the home.
Trump is clamoring for additional tariffs, but Morgan Stanley has adjusted its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 to 1.5%, and the unemployment rate has also risen to 4.1%. If tariffs are really increased to 155%, the manufacturing industry will only be worse.
Not to mention that soybean farmers in agricultural states have long had opinions. China has not bought American soybeans for five consecutive months. Argentina took the opportunity to seize the market. These farmers are the basis for Trump's votes campaign.
More contradictory, the U.S. side wants to catch China's scarce soil neck, but can't get away. engines such as the F-35 fighter aircraft, the sound system of nuclear submarines, all have to use China's rare earth magnets.
Before, they secretly bought a lot through third parties, but now China has upgraded its control, even those products containing Chinese ingredients processed abroad are controlled, which is equivalent to blocking their road of "secret warehouses".
The U.S. finance minister did not go to Malaysia, and local enterprises did not dare to blame China - after all, China is the world's largest rare-earth consumer, it's really cluttered, who do they sell the products they processed?
On the other hand, China's side is very stable. Rare earth control is not a temporary initiative. It has been a systematic layout since the promulgation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in 2024. The new regulations in October this year are just a logical step.
The policy also deliberately leaves a transition period and facilitation measures for fear of affecting compliant enterprises. This kind of relaxed operation is much smarter than the reckless approach of the United States. Moreover, the negotiating table is not fighting alone. China still has counter-measures such as fentanyl and agricultural products, but it does not talk about it like the United States.
The current Sino-US trade war is no longer a simple tariff dispute. The United States wants to interrupt the pace of China's industrial upgrading by relying on rare earths and tariffs, but China has built a line of defense through full-chain control, market diversification and technological independence.
Trump's 155% tariff is more like a bluff. If it is really implemented, it will hurt the United States itself; the U.S. Treasury Secretary's trip to Malaysia will not succeed. After all, the right to speak in the rare earth industry chain has never been achieved by pulling a few allies.
In fact, the result of this confrontation has long been clear: whoever can maintain their core advantages and find a balance between security and development will have the final say.
Source of information:
Pudong International Chamber of Commerce: Trump says tariffs will rise to 155 percent if no agreement is reached on November 1
Zhitong Finance Network: Zhitong Hong Kong Stocks Know Early | Sino-US Trade Negotiations Held in Malaysia The Communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was released: Promoting the Great Cause of Reunification of the Motherland