Since Julian has a request for China, he must first listen to what China is saying.
Julani had previously handed China the words of cooperation through the American media. When the Chinese side then discussed the situation in Syria in the Security Council, it made it particularly clear: to talk about cooperation, we must first put the anti-terrorism matter in place.
This requires not to be pronounced, behind it is real security concerns – Julian's background was sensitive, the "Sham Liberation Organization" he led was already listed by the Security Council in 2014 as a terrorist organization, and he himself was included in the sanctions list because of his proximity to al-Qaeda.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, northwestern Syria has become a “shelter” for terrorist forces. The United Nations Monitoring Group’s July 2024 report clearly states that “the Sham Liberation Organization” is still the main terrorist force in the region.
China promotes the "Belt and Road" in the Middle East, many projects are laid out in this film, if terrorism spreads, the security of along-line projects will be directly affected.
Like in Afghanistan, the Taliban has not completely cleared the Bata and BLA terrorist organizations after taking power, as a result of which the Sino-Pakistan economic corridor has been attacked several times, and China has subsequently had to step up its efforts to provide counter-terrorist support to Pakistan – this because China does not want to eat anymore, so the counter-terrorist issue in Syria is of particular importance.
Julani did make moves recently. On October 21st, his troops surrounded the camp of the French terrorist organization "Stranger Team" in Idlib province, and fiercely attacked them with artillery and drones, demanding the capture of their commander Omar Omson.
But the wave operates more like he is “cleaning the gate”: those extreme armed groups that do not listen to his command are actually the interceptors of his affairs, picking them up is more for the convenience of his own rule, and the “attack” that China wants is not the same thing.
China's representatives in the Security Council specifically stressed that it is necessary to fight "China and the Security Council's list of well-known terrorist organizations", which means that Zhulian can not only make soft tomatoes, but must take a systemic action, really cut off all ties with extremist forces.
Inclusive construction: stable internally can talk about long-term cooperation
On the basis of anti-terrorism, China then made the second request: to unite all ethnic groups and factions in China and promote a political process in which everyone can participate. This sounds simple, but it is more difficult to do than to the sky-ethnic and religious conflicts in Syria have accumulated for decades, and it doesn't mean that they can be resolved by resolving them.
When Julani first came to power, he liquidated the Alawites. In just four days, more than 1,000 people were killed, which buried the hatred between sectaries even deeper;
In the northeast, the Kurdish-led “Syrian Democratic Forces” holding Syria’s main oil and grain resources, they have been demanding local decentralization and even proposing federalization, and the Syrian regime is clearly opposed to this idea.
Although the two parties later signed an integration agreement, the progress was extremely slow, there was no substantial progress, and the internal cracks have not been filled.
More troubling is the external agitation, with Israel backed by the Druze tribe in the south, and the Israeli army has advanced to just 20 kilometers from Damascus, possibly one day through secular contradictions to interfere with Syria.
This situation of "internal divisions, external interference" is similar to that of Afghanistan: the Taliban came to power after the exclusion of other ethnic groups, the interests of the Balochish tribes were not guaranteed, seriously damaged, the separatist forces had the opportunity to grow, and in turn left the Taliban regime unstable.
It is precisely because of the lessons of Afghanistan that China has repeatedly emphasized the importance of "inclusiveness" and is afraid that Syria will take the same detour.
The "inclusive political process" mentioned by China is not empty talk. The core is to allow all ethnic groups and factions to participate in governance. Just as the "Syrian * Forces" proposed to build a "constitution that can cover all classes", the Julani regime can't be tough as soon as it comes up. It has to sit down and talk to each other to find a plan acceptable to everyone.
You know, it will take at least US$216 billion to rebuild Syria after the war. If the internal situation remains unstable, foreign capital will definitely not dare to come in and invest money-even if the United States and Europe lift sanctions, this alone will not be able to support the reconstruction.
If Julian could not even internal unity, let alone cooperation with China, his own regime could, as Secretary of State Rubio warned, face the risk of a “large-to-extreme civil war” and even a nation-split.
China’s position is never a “double target” but a security priority.
Some people may ask, why does China make these demands on Juraniti? In fact, this is not specifically targeted at Syria, but the position that China has always held in regional affairs, which is exactly the same as the demand for the Afghan Taliban.
After the Taliban took power, China made it clear that in order to help them integrate into the international community, two things must first be done: one is to engage in inclusive politics, and the other is to eliminate all terrorist organizations in the territory, and even in the joint statement of China and Pakistan both are written very clearly, as a prerequisite.
The same demand for Juraniti now is essentially adhering to the logic of "putting security first and stability is the foundation." No matter which country's regime it is, it must adhere to these two bottom lines if it wants to cooperate with China.
In Afghanistan, because the Taliban failed to counter terrorism, Bata launched 151 terrorist attacks in a year, 49% of the local terrorist attacks were committed by them, and Chinese personnel and projects in Afghanistan were also threatened repeatedly;
If Syria follows this road, terrorist forces may spread through neighboring countries such as Iraq and Iran, directly threatening the security of the southern route of "the belt and road initiative".
Therefore, China must put the ugly words first. Whether it is the Taliban or the Julani regime, they must implement counter-terrorism and unity matters in a practical manner without room for negotiation.
Julian obviously understands this, and he specifically said through the US media that he wanted to establish a "stable relationship based on strategic interests" with China and Russia.
But showing it is useless, the key is to look at the action - like Argentina before trying to steal the U.S. soybeans market, just screaming slogans is useless, and have to effectively abolish export taxes, improve product standards, and demonstrate their sincerity with practical actions;
In cooperation with China, Mr. Zhulian will have to deliver tangible results, either by completely eradicating the Security Council-listed terrorist organizations or by pushing for a real reconciliation between the Kurds and the central government.
China's statements in the Security Council have made the standards clear and clear, this is not a code used to negotiate the exchange price, but a cooperation "entry ticket", without this ticket, talking about cooperation is empty talk.
Judging from the current situation, Julani is indeed making some preliminary attempts: while attacking terrorist groups in the territory, he is discussing with Russia to withdraw troops from Alawite settlements, hoping to ease sectarian conflicts by this. But these are far from enough-anti-terrorism must have a long-term effective mechanism, and it can't be stopped for a while; Unity must also be guaranteed by the system, and it can't be dealt with just by signing a few agreements.
China has observed the Taliban for three years before slowly promoting cooperation. Naturally, it will be patient with Julani, but patience does not mean there is no bottom line. After all, there is no unilateral "charity" in international relations. Only when both sides show sincerity and actions can cooperation really come to fruition. If Syria wants to get closer to China, it has to work harder on these two hurdles.
Source of information:
CCTV: Chinese representative urges Syrian transitional government to fulfill its anti-terrorism obligations
Global Times: Chinese Representatives Urge Syrian Transitional Government to Fulfill Counter-Terrorism Obligations