On October 24th, Japanese Prime Minister sanae takaichi delivered his first policy speech in Congress. This is her first public speech after taking office, and it is also the first time that she has made clear her position on China as a national leader.
Why did she choose to make such a tough stance on China at the beginning of her tenure?
Japan's prime minister, Cao市早苗, who had just taken office for three days, gave her first speech in the provisional congress.
The speech lasted less than 30 minutes, but the sentence smelled like a fire, especially with regard to China, the sentence "it is necessary to build a stable relationship", plus the "three no" sign, and directly put the China-Japan relationship on the cold bench.
The "Abe line" seems to be really back.
Without waiting for the congratulatory message, she showed her cards first. This is not diplomacy, but an oath.
No policy, not just diplomatic orders
When talking about Sino-Japanese relations, Takaichi used "it is necessary to build constructive relations", not "deepening cooperation" or "further development".
These five words, which sound restrained, are translated into vernacular: I don't want to be near you, but I have to be with you.
First, no: she did not emphasize “strategic mutuality” in China-Japanese relations, as she did in the case of岸田文雄, but spoke coldly.
This is not a matter of language style, it is a change in strategic positioning.
She publicly listed “economic security” as a “suspecting matter” between Japan and China.This is the first time that the Japanese prime minister has shown a precautionary attitude towards China in the economic sphere.
In her speech, she clearly emphasized that the Japan-US alliance as the axis should be drawn to South Korea, Australia, India, Philippines and other countries, and strengthen "Indo-Pacific multilateral" cooperation.
This is not collaboration, it is encirclement.
In the final analysis, the "three noes" policy of Takashi and Early Miao is a colder shell for Abe's China strategy.
The Cabinet Employee, Abe Full Return
Not only is the strategy such as Abe, but the personnel also "duplicate".
The Gaoshizao cabinet was opened a few days after the establishment of Miao and Gaoshizao. Many old generals of Abe factionThe most controversial of these is the Twin Tree.
This Liberal Democratic Party boss was once Abe's closest "student", but he was also involved in the "black gold politics" scandal. According to common sense, a new prime minister should avoid suspicion when he comes to power, but Gao Shi does the opposite.
She not only used it, but also placed him in a key position within the self-government party, according to the Commonwealth on October 22, 70.2% of Japanese people think this appointment is "inappropriate"。
But the high market is indifferent, and she does not want a clean image, but a political basis.
What is the Abe Party? is the center of Japan's conservative forces, is the main force against China strong and hard. The high market uses them, not not not to choose, but to use their strength, to completely "recover" Abe's route.
In this speech, the city also proposed that Revised Security III document(National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, Defense Forces Planning Plan), and advance the realization of the "defense expenditure accounts for 2% of GDP", from the previously scheduled year 2027. Completion of fiscal year 2025。
Why is it so urgent? Because Trump will visit Japan on October 27th.
High markets that is in advance "transaction" and show loyalty to the United States.
But she not only intends to buy weapons, but also to “obstruct” China from the economic level. she proposed to strengthen “economic security guarantees” and systemically restrict foreigners, especially Chinese-owned enterprises, to “buy land” in Japan.
This policy may seem to be a domestic security issue, but in fact it has been brewing among Japanese conservatives for many years.
In recent years, Japanese public opinion has repeatedly hyped on topics such as “Chinese-owned enterprises buy Hokkaido water resources” and “Chinese control rural land”.
Gao's "institutionalization" of the issue indicates that its defense against China has extended from military and diplomatic to military. Economic sovereignty, control of key resourcesSegregation of areas.
What she wants is to fundamentally reduce China's influence on Japan.
Diplomatic pace, the Indian-Pacific siege again escalated
The arrangement of Gao's first overseas visit is also very particular. She will attend the APEC summit.
It is not about going relatives, it is about drawing a strategic map, she wants to borrow the "APEC" brand, to pull together the cooperation of Japan, the United States, Australia, India, the Philippines, South Korea and other countries, forming a "Indo-Pacific Alliance 2.0" with Japan as a node.
This step is an upgrade of Abe's "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy.
The difference lies in the fact that Abe had some "balancing techniques" in the years, making some buffering between China and Japan. but the high market did not play the round field, directly replacing bilateral dialogue with "multilateral mechanisms" and "internationalizing" China-Japanese relations.
She is not prepared to "communicate", but is prepared to "put pressure".
How Far Can Early Economics Go?
In terms of economy, the core of the "Sanae Economics" proposed by Takashi is fiscal stimulus, industrial investment, and tax cuts and subsidies.
But she is facing a Japan with a debt ratio of 240% of GDP. Inflation has not yet subsided, prices are still rising, but people's wages have not increased.
What does it mean to cut taxes, expand spending, and raise defense spending?The answer she gave was: raise the tax on financial income, and rectify the special tax case.
However, the industry generally believes that these measures are not enough to fill the fiscal gap, and she still has to rely on deficit national debt. This means that the Japanese government may further expand its debt and may even trigger a "downgrade warning" from international rating agencies.
In this financial context, the high market’s tough policy on China has become a high-cost gamble.
When the Chinese-Japanese economic friction intensifies, Japanese enterprises will be hit first, especially tourism, manufacturing, and retail industries that depend on the Chinese market.
Cao市早苗 is not Abe's promotion, but her every policy is reviving the political roadmap left by Abe.
She is making up for what Abe wanted to do but didn't finish in those days, but this "fried cold rice" operation goes against the trend of the times and will eventually be abandoned by history.