After the phone call between the United States and Russia, it was announced that they would meet in Hungary in the next two weeks, but now the summit may fall through before it is confirmed. Trump complains that Putin wants too much and refuses to cease fire on the spot, so there is no need for the United States and Russia to meet.
On October 16 local time, Trump and Putin had a phone conversation. This phone call, made before Zelensky and Trump met, seemed to completely change Trump's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war at the time, or more exposed the United States 'attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump gave up the idea of giving Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, also put pressure on Zelensky, and planned to meet with Putin in Budapest.
However, things changed rapidly, and it was less than a week before Trump's meeting with Putin was put on hold. According to Observer.com, on October 21st, local time, Trump delivered a speech at the White House, saying that he didn't want to have a wasted meeting.
Trump said that the obstacle to the negotiations is still Russia, because Russia refuses to cease fire according to the current front line. According to CNN, There was originally a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to prepare for a high-level meeting between the United States and Russia, but it has now been shelved.The two had also spoken before, and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the call very constructive.
It can be seen that the two sides have actually made a lot of efforts to hold meetings between the United States and Russia, so why do they suddenly not plan to meet? How long will the shelving last?
According to Lianhe Zaobao, a U.S. official revealed to Reuters that Russia sent an informal document to the United States last weekend, which reiterated Russia's insistence on the Russia-Ukraine peace terms. Russia demands full control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which is inconsistent with the current situation on the Russia-Ukraine front line.
Although Russia has controlled most of the Donbass, such as the Luhansk region, it is almost under full Russian control. But there is still part of Donetsk that is now under Ukrainian control, and Russian control of the region is not secure。
Putin's proposal of such conditions actually represents Russia's lowest goal in this war.Donbass, a historic Ukrainian industrial district dominated by coal mining and heavy industry, is important for Ukraine and for Russia’s war targets.Putin fears he wants to annex the entire industrial district, but it’s actually a little less than the four states of the East, which he initially demanded.
The Russian-controlled Donbas area (pink) and the current front line (red dotted line). Donetsk region still has Ukraine control area (blue)
Putin may want to take advantage of Trump’s cessation of hostilities and use Trump’s desire for a peaceful image to directly his war goals, but doing so also rejects Trump’s idea of a ceasefire.。 Trump hopes that they will cease fire immediately, just as he is doing with Israel, Iran and Hamas. He doesn't want to hear them put forward new conditions, but reach an agreement immediately.
For Ukraine, such a request will not be promised, and Ukraine is willing to make a ceasefire in the current way.。On October 21, local time, the British Prime Minister's Office announced that the leaders of Ukraine, 12 countries including Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland and Spain, together with the European Union, issued a statement supporting Trump's immediate ceasefire proposal and using the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations.
It is beneficial for Ukraine to negotiate from the current front line. Zelensky is likely to rely on the pressure from the United States and Europe on Russia to force Russia to stop moving forward. Even if a long-term ceasefire cannot be reached, Ukraine can still get some breathing time. If a long-term ceasefire can be reached, it is more reasonable to be forced to cede part of the territory in this way, which can reduce opposition to Zelensky in Ukraine.
For the United States and Trump, an immediate ceasefire as he said would show American influence and enhance his image of peace. At the same time, Trump’s announcement of postponing the summit was also a pressure on Russia to prove that Trump was not influenced by Putin, showing Trump’s willingness to talk but not easily concessions.
For Putin, this is not good news. Putin probably did not expect Trump to change his mind so quickly. It seemed to stabilize the United States, but in turn was manipulated by the United States. Just saying shelving the summit is enough to make the outside world think that Trump still does not trust Russia.
It is still unknown whether the summit will be held. If Putin continues to offer conditions to the United States and relax requirements during this period, perhaps the summit will still be held as scheduled. If Russia refuses to give in, I'm afraid the summit will really fail.