On October 11, U.S. President Trump took the table in front of the camera, announcing that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1st, and even aircraft parts were included in the list. Unwilling to "decouple and break links" with China, hoping to restart economic and trade negotiations。
From threats to peace seeking, what has the United States experienced? What made the once tough White House suddenly give in and take the initiative to release the signal of visiting China?
From May to September 2023, China and the United States conducted multiple rounds of negotiations in Switzerland, the United Kingdom and other places, and there was a continuous tug of war around the tariff issue. The United States continues to revise the tax increase schedule, and it is finally set for November 10th. However, there was no breakthrough in many meetings, and the scene was once deadlocked.
At the beginning of October, China suddenly launched a bid. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued four to five export control orders, implemented strict restrictions on rare earth minerals, separators, processing equipment and technology, and incorporated high-tech materials such as graphics, diamonds, lithium battery technology into control.This series of actions like a combination of fists, directly hit the high-tech industry of the United States.
Especially rare soils—this seemingly undesirable “industrial vitamins”—are essential materials in core fields such as fighter jets, missiles, semiconductors, and new energy.
99% of the world's supply of medium and heavy rare earths is in the hands of China, and the United States closed most rare earth mines as early as the 1990s due to environmental issues. After decades of serious dependence on imports, it will take three to five years to rebuild the supply chain once the supply is discontinued.In the face of short-term "stagnation", the United States has no choice at all.
On October 10, China increased additional costs for U.S. naval ships stationing in its domestic ports, further increasing pressure on the U.S. Just after this series of actions, on October 11, Trump still tried to strengthen the announcement of tariff increases, but in fact the U.S. has long been in trouble.
The American media took the lead in attacking and put forward soul torture: " If China stops supply of rare earth, what will the United States rely on?The White House was quick and urgently contacted allies such as Australia and Canada, hoping to use their rare-earth resource rescue.
However, the survey results completely disappointed the United States-the rare earth production capacity of these countries is mainly concentrated in the light rare earths field. Not only is the real key medium and heavy rare earths small, but also relies heavily on China for refining technology.
The U.S. military-industrial enterprises were also the first to issue a warning, saying that if the supply of rare earth again interrupted, the production of high-end equipment such as the F-35 invisible fighter jets and the militia-3 intercontinental missiles would completely stagnate. The military industry is an important pillar of the U.S. economy. Once production is stopped, the losses will be immeasurable.At this time, the United States, only realized that they were trying to use a chip card for China's neck, but did not find that their destiny has long been pinched by China.
China not only has a huge reserve of rare earth resources, but also has over 70% of the world's rare earth separation patent technology, especially in the field of environmental protection metallurgy, deep processing formed technical barriers.
More to the U.S. focus is that the new pipeline-controlled graphics material is the key to the chip heating system, while lithium battery technology is related to the new energy car industry success.Tesla inside even issued an emergency announcement, said the lack of magnesium steel, the motor is a pile of waste iron.
The United States wanted to use chip control to curb China's development, but in recent years through independent innovation, China has achieved domestic replacement in the field of low-end chips, new energy and other fields, basicallyining industrial operation. while the United States faced with rare earth, graphics, lithium batteries are controlled, etc. Three industrial chains are locked at the same time, the high-tech front is fully alert.
The turning point occurred on October 18, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly admitted that "the departure from China is not in the interests of either party".
The Trump administration has outlined three topics as negotiation codes: phentanyl, soybeans, and rare earth.The fentanyl problem requires the cooperation of China in managing it. Soybean exports are highly dependent on the China market, while rare earths rely almost 100% on China supplies. The three major issues exposed the overall passivity of the United States and also made the world see clearly China's dominant position in key areas.
In exchange for negotiation space, the United States even expressed its willingness to waive 20% tariffs on fentanyl related products, and said it looked forward to visiting China in early 2026. The move has been interpreted by the outside world as a major shift from "threats to goodwill", and the root cause is still rare earths. The Wall Street Journal headline bluntly stated: " If tomorrow's confession is rare, it's not the mobile phone, but the fighter aircraft.”
The US military's inventory can only last for 90 days at most. Once the supply is cut off, the entire military system will be paralyzed. The U.S. chip industry is also facing problems such as unstable heat dissipation and lack of support in the battery industry. The election is approaching, the economy is declining, military production is suspended, and public opinion is rebounding. The triple pressure has forced the United States to bow its head.
The reason why China dares to make moves is because it is full of confidence. Not only is it rich in resources and advanced in technology, but it also has a huge domestic demand market. From rare earth mines to magnetic materials to end products, China has built a complete closed loop of the industrial chain.Even if it is not exported, it can rely on domestic consumption to support the operation of the industry.
The United States at this time discovered that China is no longer that "only mining, not mastering technology" role. what is really terrifying is not more resources, but resources + technology + market all in hand.
This game seems to be a diplomatic fight, and the reality is that the industrial foundation and strategic determination.The United States wants to rely on increased taxes to force China to make concessions, and the result is that the rare-earth counter-repression is not quick.
The rare earth card is not only a trump card of a trade war, but also China's trump card in the global industrial chain. This time, Americans truly realized the helplessness of "core technology being controlled by others". Up to now, the negotiations are still going on and the situation is still evolving. But what is certain is that behind a seemingly simple "export control" is the result of China's years of deep cultivation of the industry and accumulation of strength.
This week's shocking reversal is not accidental, but inevitable. China used rare earths to accurately counter, breaking the deadlock between China and the United States in one fell swoop and forcing the United States to move from being tough to compromising. In this war without smoke, China does not speak out, but speaks with hard power. The future game has just begun, but China is already in a more favorable position.
Source of information:
[1] China and the United States are about to launch economic and trade consultations in Malaysia.
China-U.S. economic and trade consultation is about to be held in Malaysia