Since Russia launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, this conflict has been dragged on for more than three years. I originally thought it was a quick battle, but it turned out that the battle became longer and longer, and Putin's words gradually changed. At first, the Kremlin announced that this was a "special military operation", mainly targeting the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, saying that it was to protect the ethnic Russians there from oppression and block NATO's eastward squeeze momentum. It sounds quite limited, and I don't plan to make it big. But in reality, as the battle went on, the Russian army not only failed to withdraw, but also drilled deeper, and the goal changed from protecting people to occupying land.
In the first few months of 2022, Russian troops rushed in from the Belarusian border and stormed the suburbs of Kiev, occupying areas near Chernobyl, trying to cut off supply routes in northern Ukraine. Relying on anti-tank missiles and intelligence provided by the West, Ukraine was in a mess with Russian logistics at the bridge of the Irpin River. At the end of March, the Russian army had to withdraw from the surrounding areas of Kiev and turn around to gnaw on the hard bones of the east.
April to May, the port city of Mariupol became the focus, the Russian army surrounded for months, bombed the underground work of the accelerated steel plant, the Ukrainian guard could not withstand but surrender, which allowed Russia to seize part of Ukraine's Black Sea offshore. In the summer, the chemical plant district of Severtonetsk was hit by fire, Ukraine with western shells, the Russian troops lost a lot, but still in the end of June took there and next to Lichinsk, controlled part of the Donbass industrial zone. In September, Russia simply announced the annexation of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporovo and Hertsun in four places, voted for legality, although no international recognition.
In the spring of 2023, the Ukrainian counter-offensive, with Western tanks to recover some villages on the west bank of Helsinki, but the Russian troops in the mines dug a dungeon, dead positions, the Ukrainian equipment was severely lost. In the winter, a street in the Bahemuth district robbed, the Russian troops bombed several command points in Ukraine in May completely occupied that iconic city. In 2024, the battle entered the saw, the Russian troops built defense outside of Afdijk, in February took back to the valley of the Toretsk. Ukraine with missiles hit the Russian back warehouse, the Russians took drones from Iran, ammunition from North Korea, pushed to the top.
In early 2025, the northern part of Kharkov was again opened, and the Russian army occupied the town of Wolfchunsk and broke the northern Ukrainian roads. In May, Putin signed a border buffer zone, extending to Sumy, Chernigov, and also to Nikolayev and Odessa, which are not only Ukrainian cattle warehouses, but also European land and Black Sea routes. The Black Sea fleet blocked more tightly, blocked Ukrainian livestock ships, and the global price of wheat rose. In the occupied area, the Russian military rebuilt permanent works, anti-tank cracks, and mines, to ensure imprisonment.
At this point in the war, Putin's statement also changed. Defense Minister Shoigu publicly stated in April 2025 that the Ukraine authorities had to use terrorist means to completely remove the regime to ensure border security, which was much more ruthless than protecting ethnic minorities earlier. At the end of May, presidential adviser Kobyakov threw a message at the St. Petersburg Forum, saying that the 1991 Belavezhh Agreement would be invalid without the approval of the Supreme Soviet, that the Soviet Union was still legally alive, and that Ukraine's affairs were considered internal contradictions. This directly denies Ukraine's sovereignty and leaves room for Russia to attack other former Soviet countries in the future.
Putin always mentioned Lenin's federalism that ruined Russia's territory, boasted of the empire's expansion during World War I, and said that the February Revolution broke the road to national reunification. This tone has a flavor of Greater Russianism, that is, he feels that he should be the boss and stretch his hand to Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Russia's military strength is tightly tied to Belarus and its troops are stationed on the border. Central Asia's economies like Kazakhstan rely on Russian energy and cannot shake off it. On the other side of the Arctic, Russia plunges waterway resources and deploys advanced missiles.
The intelligence in 2025 showed that Putin’s short-term goal could be to stabilize the already occupied land and boost the economy, but in the long run he still bites the entire Ukraine, insisting that Ukraine abandon Donbass, neutral, not join NATO, limit the size of the army, without Western troops. In August, Putin spoke through channels, asking Ukraine to let the entire East Donbass, recognize Crimea to Russia, or not talk. The battle is now, Russia has occupied one-fifth of Ukraine, but the cost is high, soldiers are killed over 500,000, the economy is sanctioned, relying on energy sales and Asian trade asphyxiation. Western intelligence said that Putin felt the drag down to his advantage, could exhaust Ukraine and the West’s patience, but the actual Russian military advances slowly,
China, as a neighbor, has to look closely at this. Russia's move, is not a good sign for China. First of all, the Belt and Road, Ukraine is the bridgehead of Eurasia, the war is messy, China's investment and infrastructure projects are easy to blow up. Transportation lines are cut, goods are slow, the cost is high. On the Central Asian side, Russia's hand is stretched, with China to gain influence, the money for the Belt and Road construction can not be thrown away. Russia and Central Asian countries economic security is hanged, Kazakhstan is neutral in the mouth, and can not be separated from Russian energy. In June 2025, China and Russia openly show partners, but intelligence leaks showed mutual distrust, China feels that Russia is in Ukraine too deep, economic traction. In October, Ukrainian intelligence reports
Bloomberg reported that China joined Russia's hybrid war against Europe to punish Europe for supporting Ukraine. European countries are stuck by energy and dare not be tough. A Chinese think tank published a report in September 2025, saying that Russia's war has been going on for a long time, and China has to prevent sanctions from spreading, and it has to figure out how to deal with it in terms of policy. Russia wants to take advantage of the belt and road initiative's opportunity to gain a foothold in Europe and Asia, but when there is a fight, Europe holds the United States tightly, NATO's eastward expansion is strong, and the pressure on China's Asia-Pacific region is also increasing. China originally fought with the United States, but Russia's tossing is tantamount to adding chaos. The region is unstable, there are many conflicts, and China's overseas investment and personnel safety are in danger.
If anyone else learns, the risks are high. China must stay stable, insist not to interfere in domestic affairs, talk more with Russia about the borders, don't make mistakes. Economically, the Belt and Road push, cooperate more with Central Asia Europe, play good cards. When necessary, follow up with Russian sanctions, don't let him too close.