On October 23, a rare scene occurred at the China Foreign Ministry's routine press conference, when a Japanese reporter asked a spokesman: "Takaichi sanae has taken office as Prime Minister of Japan. Will China send her a congratulatory message?"The question sounds simple, but in the tone of urgency, almost as if it was “questioning.”
Why didn't China send a congratulatory message? This is not only a matter of politeness, but also a game between the two countries behind it.
Questioning Japanese journalists, it seemed very unusual, showing that Japan was very concerned about China's attitude, and even a little too late. China has made appropriate arrangements in accordance with diplomatic practice.Words sound polite, but they are actually very informative. What do you mean by "proper arrangement"? Maybe it's just not scheduled for the time being.
The spokesman then stressed: Japan must abide by the principles of the four documents between China and Japan, especially on the history and Taiwan Province issue. The meaning is very clear: it's not that you don't give a congratulatory message, but giving you a congratulatory message means that China recognizes you as the new prime minister and the foundation of bilateral relations. But now, that foundation looks a little shaken.
For example, when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office for the first time in 2012, China's congratulatory message was also delayed, because Japan had misconducted on the Diaoyu Islands issue at that time. Today, history repeats itself again.
In 1995, Japan’s Prime Minister,村山富市, made a speech officially acknowledging Japan’s past “colonial rule and aggression” and expressed profound reflection, which was an important foundation for China-Japan relations.
Gao Shizao and Miao are opposed to even this. How can China easily send a congratulatory message to her? This is like someone who once hurt your family, but now he is the person in charge of a neighbor. Not only does he not apologize, he also feels that what happened back then is no big deal. Will you congratulate him easily?
Germany in this regard, thoroughly reflecting on the history of the Nazis, the leaders repeatedly kneeled to apologize, because of this, Germany can be re-accepted by all European countries.
Cao市早苗 has published her draft speech, which is very interesting about China's attitude, and can be said to be "two-sided".
On the one hand, she called China an "important neighbor" and said that she would promote dialogue between the leaders of the two countries and establish a "strategic and mutually beneficial relationship." It sounded good and seemed to be extending an olive branch. But on the other hand, she immediately said that "there are issues worthy of attention in the fields of security and economic security." To put it bluntly, she regarded China as a threat.
Let’s look at her specific plans:
Military: Intended to modify Japan’s core security documents such as the National Security Strategy. She also plans to ease arms export restrictions and raise defense spending to 2% of GDP. What is the concept of 2%?
Economically: stress to invest in AI and semiconductor these high-tech industries, while stressing “economic security”. last year, Japan has followed the United States, implemented chip export controls to China.
It is strange, on the one hand, to say to be a good neighbor with us, but on the other hand to try hard to prepare to fight.
There are two bottom lines that are absolutely untouchable: history and Taiwan.
As we said above on historical issues, Takashi Saomiao's record is not good; on Taiwan, Japan has colonized Taiwan for 50 years in history, and now some right-wingers still have ideas about Taiwan. In 2005, when Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi insisted on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, Sino-Japanese relations fell into a multi-year "ice age". It was not until Abe later restrained on historical issues that relations between the two countries slowly warmed up.
This lesson tells us: As long as Japanese leaders abide by the rules on core issues, China and Japan can improve; if they cross the line, relations will immediately turn cold.
There is another deep reason why Japan is anxious for China's congratulatory message: it is difficult for it to be a man between China and the United States.
The United States regards China as its main competitor and pulls Japan together to contain China. Japan dares not disobey the United States, but it is also afraid of really damaging relations with China. After all, China is Japan's largest trading partner. In 2022, China-Japan trade volume will reach US$357.4 billion, accounting for more than 20% of Japan's total foreign trade.
Japan is very contradictory now. It wants to follow the United States and confront China militarily, but it can't do without China economically. This divisive mentality is clearly shown in takaichi sanae's draft.
Cao市早苗 also made a request to China to hold a summit dialogue.Whether this request can be realized depends not on how well she says it, but on how she does it. China has given a clear answer: dialogue is possible, but only if Japan takes practical actions in history and Taiwan. Stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, stop obscuring the history of aggression, and stop making small moves.
This wave of congratulations, on the surface is a delay in a diplomatic ceremony, is actually a signal. The Chinese side is using "not sending congratulations" in this way, clearly telling Gao Shui: how the relationship goes, the right to choose is in your hands. Japan no longer play that kind of "must say cooperation, knock the knife behind the back".
The Chinese people remember history and value practical actions.