Prior to the PUT meeting, the Polish foreign minister spoke that he was ready to intercept the Russian president’s special aircraft passing through Polish airspace and transfer Putin to The Hague for trial.
Earlier, the US-Russian president agreed in a call that the next face-to-face meeting will be held in Budapest, Hungary, on a ceasefire with Russia. Trump did not say the specific time of the meeting, but only said a rough range: next week.
When talking about a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, only the United States and Russia are talking about. As soon as the news came out, Ukraine had not yet responded, and Europe took the lead in taking action. On October 21, the leaders of nine European countries including Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Uzbekistan, as well as European Commission President Von der Leyen and European Council President Costa sat together, discussed for a long time, and issued a joint statement.
The following points were emphasized in the statement. First, we must firmly support President Trump's position and immediately cease hostilities. The current contact line should be the starting point for negotiations. This means that the West may have acquiesced in part of the territory already occupied by Russian troops as a basis for negotiations. Why is this? Compared with the interests of Ukraine, Europe is most concerned about stopping losses at the moment.
Second, before a cease-fire agreement is reached, Europe should put more pressure on Russia’s economy. At present, Europe is bringing back its internationally frozen, sovereign assets belonging to Russia, and using special mechanisms to spend money on Ukraine’s reconstruction and military support, ensuring that Ukraine can get the resources and funds it needs.
From this statement, we can see that unlike the United States, Europe has no plans for Russia. First step, Preferred damageEurope’s worst fear is not that Ukraine will lose part of its territory, but that the spread of war, refugee flows, energy and economic turmoil continue to widen, so they have proposed “the starting point of negotiations with the current line of contact” that is essentially to control Ukraine and Europe’s own losses – even if Ukraine’s short-term interests may be compromised, the situation must first be stabilized.
The second step, Increase economic pressure on Russia。 That is to say, as mentioned above, using other people's frozen property to do one's own affairs can not only support Ukraine, but also continue to empty Russia's purse, making Russia more passive at the negotiating table.
It can be seen that Europe is now planning-- First stabilize the risks of the war, pay the Russian pocket to Ukraine, and then use time and code to force the Russian side to make concessions.。 Under this premise, Europe will naturally not sit idly by when faced with the separate negotiations between the United States and Russia, and will do everything possible to obstruct the separate negotiations between the United States and Russia.
Similarly, on October 21, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski issued a warning, that if Putin's special aircraft to Hungary in the middle of the way through Polish airspace, Poland can not guarantee that it will not take special aircraft to intercept, and then on the basis of an international arrest warrant, Putin will be transferred to The Hague for trial, in which case, President Lavrov has a different route.
Indeed, Poland can indeed execute the so-called arrest warrant in The Hague. But once it is done, it will inevitably directly trigger an international diplomatic crisis, even military conflict, and the consequences are very serious. This is of course well known to Poland, so the political deterrence of the Polish foreign minister is greater than the substance. Poland just wants to use this means, to cost Putin's route, to reduce the Russian choice, and further to force the Russian side to cancel the US-Russian summit.
So, suppose the target is Budapest, avoiding the Polish airspace, there are probably three routes that Putin's special aircraft can take. The first rounded north through the Baltic countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, and then entered the air above Hungary, but depends on whether the airspace of these countries is allowed.
The second round goes east. Directly from Russian airspace into Belarus or neighboring countries in northern Ukraine, and then south to Hungary, but the sky over Ukraine is not very safe. The third is to go south. Through the Black Sea or Turkish airspace, and then northwest into Hungary, this route is safer, and the flight time is increased for longer distances. On the whole, the third route is safer.
The planned US-Russian summit this week, from preparation to route, is full of uncertainty. Per the US-Russian side feels that the summit is heavy, according to Hong Kong 01 news reports, the US-Russian summit scheduled for this week, may be postponed, and the final performance of the summit, I am afraid, will have to wait until the time is more mature.