China had just stopped buying American soybeans, but Gao Shizao immediately stepped in to "save the market"? Japan's reverse operation shocked China and the United States.
When China suspended the purchase of U.S. soybeans, Japan chose to increase the import of U.S. soybeans. The Japanese first female prime minister’s decision was not only a sign of favour to the United States, but also a “deep-water bomb” between China and the United States. In the context of the increasingly intense Sino-U.S. trade game, why did Japan want this move? is simply to consolidate the Japan-U.S. alliance, or otherwise?
Since the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, soybeans have become an important key to both games. The U.S. is the world’s largest soybeans exporter, while China is the world’s largest soybeans importer. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture data, U.S. soybeans exports to China in 2024 have dropped by more than 50 percent. Since May, China has stopped purchasing U.S. soybeans, turning up imports to South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina to counter U.S. This strategy has had a serious impact on U.S. agriculture states and directly threatened Trump’s voter base. To ease pressure, the Trump administration will restore China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans as an important condition for U.S.-China trade negotiations.
In this context, Japan's intervention is particularly important. Takaichi Sanae plans to further increase Japan's imports of soybeans from the United States from 70% and reduce its purchases from Brazil. This policy not only eased the pressure on American agricultural exports, but also injected new economic ties into Japan-US relations. For Trump, this is undoubtedly a timely help. He can use this achievement to explain to voters in agricultural states, and at the same time strengthen his bargaining chips in Sino-US negotiations.
However, this policy is not only a good indication for the United States, but also a diplomatic test for China. China's strategy of suspending the procurement of American soybeans is aimed at putting pressure on the United States through economic means. However, Japan's intervention may weaken the effect of this strategy and provide more space for negotiation for the United States. This may not only weaken China's negotiating advantage, but also create new contradictions between China and the United States.
Behind Japan's soybean import policy, there is a deeper economic logic. Takaichi Sanae's policy further increases this ratio while reducing purchases from Brazil. This move not only helps ease pressure on U.S. agricultural states, but may also affect the long-term supply relationship between China and Brazil.
For Japan, this policy is both beneficial and detrimental.On the one hand, it strengthens Japan-U.S. relations and seeks more support for Japan in international affairs.On the other hand, it can trigger China’s dissatisfaction, thereby negatively affecting China’s trade relations.China is Japan’s largest trading partner, accounting for 22% of Japan’s total exports.If China takes counter-measures against Japan, it could have a certain impact on Japan’s economy.
This policy of Gao Shi and Miao Miao early is not only an economic decision, but also a diplomatic game. Against the backdrop of tense Sino-US relations, Japan's move may have a profound impact on the global trade landscape. However, this policy may also trigger a series of chain reactions, which will have a certain impact on Sino-Japanese relations and Sino-US negotiations. How to find a balance between China, the United States and Japan will be the key to Takashi's future governance.