The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fighting until now, for more than three years, since the massive invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022, those parts of eastern Ukraine have become a battlefield, Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, Helsinki these areas daily, Russia has controlled about 20% of Ukraine's land. The people are suffering, the city has been blown up in ruins, many people have run into refugees, Europe has received millions of Ukrainians. Russia has also lost no little, the number of soldiers killed is not officially said, but the West estimates at least hundreds of thousands of casualties. In the economy, Russia is sanctioned enough, but by selling oil to other countries, it is also supported. Ukraine, with European aid, is alive, national debt mountains, infrastructure is destroyed.
Speaking of the roots of this conflict, we must start in 2014. That year, pro-Russian President Yanukovych of Ukraine was ousted, Crimea was annexed by Russia, pro-Russian forces in East Ukraine fought for independence, and Russia secretly supported it. Since then, Russia and Ukraine have never been peaceful. The Minsk Agreement has been signed twice, but neither has been fully implemented. Russia has always complained about NATO's eastward expansion and feels that its security space is being squeezed. The United States and Europe push Ukraine to be pro-Western, and Russia feels this is a threat. Putin always says that Ukraine has Nazi forces and needs to be demilitarized or something, but it is actually a geopolitical game. Western countries have provided assistance to Ukraine in weapons, from javelin missiles to the himars system to the most recent atacms, helping Ukraine withstand Russian attacks. However, Russia adapted and switched to a war of attrition, bombing Ukraine's energy facilities with drones and missiles. In winter, large areas of Ukraine were cut off.
At the end of 2024, Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield. In October, the Russian army advanced at its fastest pace in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the war, winning land equivalent to half the size of London in one month. The Ukraine army is short of ammunition, manpower, and frontline soldiers are exhausted. Zelensky shouted for counterattack, but in reality it was difficult to defend. Western aid is a little behind schedule. The aid bill passed by the U.S. Congress is dragging on, and the economies of European countries have also been affected. The military expenditures of major countries such as Germany and France have increased, but the aid intensity is not as good as at the beginning. As for Russia, its economy has not collapsed, and its GDP growth is OK. Relying on the supply of weapons and ammunition from Iran and North Korea, millions of troops have been mobilized. It seems that this battle will not end in the short term, but in the long run, no one can afford it.
In the end, we have to say the possible situation. What Western Chikurand company has analyzed, the war may be frozen on the current front, Russiains the occupied zone, Ukraine joins the EU but does not join NATO, a non-military zone to supervise a ceasefire. But this is equivalent to acknowledging Russia has lost territory, Ukraine has lost less sea access, the Black Sea coastline has shrunk by 30%. The other is Russia's overall win, assuming that the West is completely suspended, Ukraine collapses, becomes an inland state, the Dnipro river as the border, the new government pro-Russia. But the probability is not high, because Europe will not completely throw Ukraine. The third, the conflict frozen, like Syria, split into several districts, European troops and troops
Who is the biggest culprit? this has to be picked up. Many people the first reaction is the United States, think that the United States arch, NATO expansion to stimulate Russia, also the war money, military industry stocks increased by more than 10%, such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop these companies earned twice. but think carefully, the United States is not the biggest push. After the Cold War NATO expansion to the east, is a fact, but that is the European countries themselves want to join, Poland Hungary these former Chinese countries fear Russia, proactive to the west. The United States dominated, but the European countries also knocked on the head. Before the Russian invasion, the American intelligence warned that the Biden government would not openly say that it would not be directly involved.
The real biggest sinners depend on those countries in Europe. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the EU is the chief culprit in destroying Ukraine. Why? Because Europe is too divided and too weak in the conflict. Big countries such as Germany and France were active in providing assistance at the beginning, but their military expenditure only accounted for about 2% of GDP, which was far from full strength. The German Defense Minister said that the United States cannot be expected to fight forever, but for himself, it has been delayed for a long time to assist tanks. Macron of France mentioned sending European troops to Ukraine, but later withdrew. There are big differences within the EU, and Orban of Hungary and Russia are flirting with each other to obstruct aid. Poland is active, accepting refugees and providing weapons, but it is also accused of taking the opportunity to improve its status and wanting to be an anti-Russian pioneer in Europe. Its military expenditure accounts for more than 4% of GDP, and it costs 50 billion to buy American weapons. Europe has been calling for strategic independence for several years, but NATO is still dominated by the United States, and Europe itself has no unified command and poor coordination.
NATO's eastward expansion was the trigger, and its commitment to Ukraine's entry into the treaty stimulated Russia to take action. But NATO is a legacy of the Cold War. Now there are many internal cracks and different attitudes towards Russia. Some European countries hope that the conflict will be prolonged and Russia's influence will be weakened, rather than a truce as soon as possible. U.S. Senator Rubio said that some EU countries want to keep the war going and take the opportunity to consume Russia. Although this statement was not named, it pointed to obvious points. Eastern European countries like Poland have deep historical grievances and are afraid that Russia will become strong, so they want to use Ukraine's hand to fight. As a result, the European economy suffered, the energy crisis, high inflation, and the German manufacturing industry declined. Europe did not have the courage to intervene directly, and did not want to rely completely on the United States. It was half-assed and supported Ukraine but not thoroughly, causing the war to drag into a quagmire.
Russia itself can't get out of control, Putin decided to invade, violate international law, sovereignty is not to be violated is the post-war rule. But the title says the biggest culprit is not the United States, to see who is extending the conflict. Ukrainian Zelensky, insisting on recovering all the territory, including Crimea, is this a reality? Before the war, the Ukrainian economy was weak, now worse, debt equivalent to 90% of GDP. But he has to be responsible for the people, compromise is equivalent to the treasury. What about the Jewish background, some say that the Jewish Consortium fished from, Ukrainian state-owned enterprises were acquired by the West, but this is more like a by-product of the war, not the main cause.
Globally, this conflict has changed the pattern of great powers. The United States turned its head to deal with China, Russia relied on the Middle East, Asia and Africa to sell oil and gas, and Europe relied more deeply on the United States for security. The food crisis has spread all over the world. Ukraine is the granary of Europe. Exports have been cut off, and Africa and the Middle East are hungry. The energy supply chain is in chaos, Russian oil and gas are resold to India and China, Europe and the United States are looking for new sources, and liquefied gas is becoming expensive. Nuclear deterrence is back. Russia always mentions nuclear weapons, and the West is afraid of it.
Negotiations are the only way out, but difficult. The Minsk agreement has failed, now the US and Russia are talking directly, what is Saudi Arabia's intermediary. After Trump came to power, he said to end the war, but what about it? The possibility of territorial exchange is great, Russia wants the five states of the East, Ukraine wants security. Europe must unite and promote peace, otherwise it will continue to consume. The shortage of Ukrainian soldiers, recruitment is difficult, Russia also mobilizes fatigue. Winter battlefields are frozen, maybe a window.