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Edited |Mu Yuji History
On October 23, Russian Federation Security Council Vice-President Dmitry Medvedev’s speech on social media directly disrupted the current geopolitical situation.
He not only said that the United States is already an enemy, declared that victory is only on the battlefield, but also openly replicated his previous "development of comprehensive relations with the United States" with Putin.
This is not a simple politician's voice, but a signal that under the guise of unity in the Kremlin, the internal line battle has been completely put on the table.
At present, Russia is at a crossroads of rational dialogue and tough confrontation, and this internal game has long gone beyond the scope of Russia, involving the U.S. Europe, China and even the global pattern.
The two routes of Russia
In Russia's political genes, there has never been a lack of a double logical collision, and from the historical perspective, this country has always existed imperial pride and reality calculation two underlying logic sets.
The former makes it instinctively straighten its back in containment, while the latter always reminds the boundary between resources and strength. Now, these two logics are embodied in the line opposition between Putin and Medvedev.
Putin's thinking is markedly realistic, he said at the annual meeting of the Vardy on October 2. It is clear that it is in Russia's interest to develop comprehensive relations with the United States, even made a special trip to Alaska to meet Trump before.
This attitude is not to have illusions about the United States, but to soberly realize that the Russian industrial system is not ready to fight a long-term economic war. Although energy is the lifeblood, under the long-term blockade, the gaps in food, technology, and market cannot be filled by passion.
The hardliners represented by Medvedev inherited the Soviet-style security concept. As a former president and a core member of the current Security Council, his statement far exceeds that of ordinary politicians.
This time he not only Accusing Trump of walking the road of war with Russia, more so called Europe is a crazy Nazi baseIn the past, this extreme expression only came from the mouths of marginal figures in Russian officials.
In the eyes of hardliners, Putin's dialogue line is compromise. The temptations and concessions to the United States in the past two years have brought rounds of precise sanctions instead of security guarantees.
This disagreement has long been no longer a disagreement, but a power game about the country’s direction, Medvedev openly sings, and the essence is to compete over who represents the real Russia.
Against the background of high nationalist sentiment in the country, whether it is hard enough has become the yardstick of political correctness. When rationalists are labeled as weak, the risk of emotional decision-making is soaring, and this is the most dangerous signal in Russia at the moment.
How U.S. sanctions ignite internal contradictions
The intensification of internal cracks in Russia is inseparable from the precise feeding of external pressure. In mid-October, the United States and Russia had just finalized the plan for the Budapest summit, and Putin even bet that this was an opportunity to restart dialogue.
But after a week, Trump not only unilaterally canceled the summit, but also simultaneously announced sanctions on Russia's Lukoil and RosneftThe two companies supported Russian crude oil exports in half the mountain range, which is equivalent to directly seizing the energy lifeline.
The EU’s move was more breakthrough, with the 19th round of sanctions on Russia for the first time pointing to liquefied natural gas and also limiting Russian crude oil prices to below $47.6 per barrel.
This kind of sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe is not a simple economic suppression, but a precise intervention in Russia's internal political ecology. When energy revenue is expected to plummet, hardliners immediately gain the moral legitimacy that we are forced into a corner.
The impact of the sanctions is spreading to the upper layers of Russia’s energy trading chain, and international buyers have begun to redefine transaction paths to avoid risks by increasing intermediate links, which directly boost the transaction cost of Russian energy.
The more difficult thing is, Putin wants dialogue with Medvedev to openly express anti-American contradictionsA loss of confidence that raises serious doubts about the predictability of Russia’s policy and that no business is willing to cooperate with a long-term partner with a shake of stance is more destructive than short-term sanctions.
The strategy of the United States and Europe is sophisticated. Instead of pursuing the immediate defeat of Russia, it weakens Putin's dialogue capital and makes hardliners appear more reasonable through the combination of canceling meetings, increasing sanctions and diplomatic cold treatment.
To put it bluntly, this is a psychological war, forcing Russia to either confront hard or admit weakness in the dead end, and ultimately allowing its internal conflicts to self-ignite.
Real challenges for China to be caught in the game
When Russia's internal game escalated, China's situation became delicate. Trump had already released the wind that he would discuss "how China influences Putin's decision" at the Sino-US meeting on October 30th.
This sounds like recognizing China's influence, but in fact it is putting China on fire. The United States is trying to tie the Ukrainian issue to Sino-US relations, which not only puts pressure on China, but also shifts the focus of economic and trade negotiations.
But China's situation is far more complicated than pressure. On the one hand, Medvedev’s theory of battlefield victory is directly opposed to China’s stance of persuading and promoting reconciliation.
As Russia’s internal hardships rise, the space for negotiations is constantly compressed, and even if China wants to play the role of mediation, it may be embarrassing.
On the other hand, the cooperation between China and Russia is not a simple ally, but rather A long-term contract based on a comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation.
Energy and trade exchanges have long been deeply linked, and if the pace of cooperation is adjusted to influence Russian decision-making, it will inevitably harm its own enterprises and economic interests.
The impact of this game has long been quietly transmitted to the lives of ordinary people. Energy price fluctuations are first reflected in people's livelihood commodities. From gasoline prices to power generation costs, every link is linked to daily expenses.
What is more hidden is that geographical uncertainty will cause companies to shrink risks, and the pace of the job market may slow down accordingly. The so-called high-level battle over routes will eventually Through the economic chain into everyone’s pockets.。
This is not a distant geographic game, but a reality associated with diesel salt.
Time and object behind the game
This internal game in Russia reflects the complexity of geopolitics. Putin's rational trade-offs, Medvedev's emotional catharsis, the strategic calculations of the United States and Europe, and China's balance problems constitute a game without absolute winners.
Every hard statement we see may be just an exit of internal pressure, every diplomatic meeting or cancellation may be a compromise on internal voices.
Why did Mr. Medvedev choose to speak on the day of the US-European sanctions?Why did Mr. Trump end the meeting immediately after the cancellation of the Russian-US summit?The timing and direction of these actions are far more predictive than empty declarations.
The present world is standing at a familiar crossroads. History will not be simply repeated, but the logic that internal contradictions are intensified by external pressure has never changed.
Whether Russia can avoid emotional abduction, how China can find a balance between partners and stability, and how US and European calculations will trigger a chain reaction, every step of this game is recreating the future global order.
Source of information:
Medvedev: America is our enemy, Trump is on the road to war with Russia, 2025-10-23