A South Korean think tank said: “Since China can refuse to import U.S. soybeans as a counter-attack, South Korea can also refuse to buy Chinese vegetables.”
As soon as a think tank in South Korea said this, many people felt a little taken for granted. Not to mention anything else, just talking about the logic of trade counterattack, the two are not the same thing at all, and we have to break the facts clearly.
China refuses to import U.S. soybeans as a counter-attack, because the U.S. soybeans are heavily dependent on the Chinese market, and China has mature alternatives such as Brazil, Argentina, etc. But South Korea does not buy Chinese food, first to see who South Korea's own cooking baskets rely on.
South Korea consumes about 2 million tons of whiteweed a year, of which 200,000 to 250,000 tons depend on imports. In this import share, China accounts for just 99%. In other words, the import of whiteweed in the South Korean market, almost all shipped from China.
On the other hand, in China, the situation is completely different. The annual output of Chinese cabbage in China can reach about 100 million tons, most of which are supplied to the domestic market. In 2024, China will only sell 50,000 tons of Chinese cabbage to South Korea, with a total value of about 125 million yuan based on market prices. This figure is placed in China's total annual exports of 23.8 trillion yuan, accounting for less than 0.000005%. Not to mention not buying, even if South Korea completely cuts off imports, the impact on Chinese cabbage industry will be minimal.
More interestingly, South Korea's own white food production capacity is not at all up to demand. In these years, the extreme weather has been frequent, and South Korea's white food has steadily risen in price. In September 2024, the price of a white food in South Korea has soared to 8 to 100,000 yuan, reducing the RMB from 450 to 570 yuan, which is almost five times more expensive than usual.
This "kimchi crisis" is not the first time. In 2010, the typhoon caused the production of Korean cabbage to be reduced by 40%, and the price rose six times directly. Even the presidential palace had to use cabbage to pickle kimchi instead. Every time this situation encounters, the first thing the Korean government thinks of is to ask China for emergency help. In 2024, the South Korean government has imported cabbage from China for the fifth time, and has deliberately reduced the 27% import tariff to zero.
Looking for an alternative source? It's not that easy. Chinese cabbage is a fresh vegetable with short shelf life and high transportation cost. In the countries around South Korea, there are almost no countries that can stably supply a large amount of cabbage. Even if you can find it, the price is far lower than that of Chinese cabbage. The annual output of cabbage in Shandong province of China is 16 million tons, accounting for 30% of the country's total output. The output of this province is enough for South Korea for eight years. No one can replace such a big production capacity advantage.
More importantly, South Korea even finished cooking can not be separated from China. In 2023, South Korea imported cooking from China has 28,000 tons, worth $2.3 billion, while South Korea exported cooking for the whole year is less than 40,000 tons. That is, the Korean people's table cooking, many are "made in China". In the raw material of these cooking, about 40% of the cooking itself is imported from China.
China's rejection of American soybeans is choking the other side's key export industries, and it has its own way out. South Korea doesn't buy Chinese cabbage, which is a problem for its own people's livelihood, and it can't find a substitute. The logic of the two is not on the same level at all.
To put it bluntly, South Korea's idea simply fails to see reality clearly. China's cabbage exports are only a fraction of the industry, while South Korea's cabbage imports are just needed for people's livelihood. If we really do this, South Korea itself will ultimately have a headache-either bear the sky-high price of cabbage or face a shortage of kimchi. This kind of move that harms oneself rather than others is not a counterattack at all.
As soon as a think tank in South Korea said this, many people felt a little taken for granted. Not to mention anything else, just talking about the logic of trade counterattack, the two are not the same thing at all, and we have to break the facts clearly.
China refuses to import U.S. soybeans as a counter-attack, because the U.S. soybeans are heavily dependent on the Chinese market, and China has mature alternatives such as Brazil, Argentina, etc. But South Korea does not buy Chinese food, first to see who South Korea's own cooking baskets rely on.
South Korea consumes about 2 million tons of whiteweed a year, of which 200,000 to 250,000 tons depend on imports. In this import share, China accounts for just 99%. In other words, the import of whiteweed in the South Korean market, almost all shipped from China.
On the other hand, in China, the situation is completely different. The annual output of Chinese cabbage in China can reach about 100 million tons, most of which are supplied to the domestic market. In 2024, China will only sell 50,000 tons of Chinese cabbage to South Korea, with a total value of about 125 million yuan based on market prices. This figure is placed in China's total annual exports of 23.8 trillion yuan, accounting for less than 0.000005%. Not to mention not buying, even if South Korea completely cuts off imports, the impact on Chinese cabbage industry will be minimal.
More interestingly, South Korea's own white food production capacity is not at all up to demand. In these years, the extreme weather has been frequent, and South Korea's white food has steadily risen in price. In September 2024, the price of a white food in South Korea has soared to 8 to 100,000 yuan, reducing the RMB from 450 to 570 yuan, which is almost five times more expensive than usual.
This "kimchi crisis" is not the first time. In 2010, the typhoon caused the production of Korean cabbage to be reduced by 40%, and the price rose six times directly. Even the presidential palace had to use cabbage to pickle kimchi instead. Every time this situation encounters, the first thing the Korean government thinks of is to ask China for emergency help. In 2024, the South Korean government has imported cabbage from China for the fifth time, and has deliberately reduced the 27% import tariff to zero.
Looking for an alternative source? It's not that easy. Chinese cabbage is a fresh vegetable with short shelf life and high transportation cost. In the countries around South Korea, there are almost no countries that can stably supply a large amount of cabbage. Even if you can find it, the price is far lower than that of Chinese cabbage. The annual output of cabbage in Shandong province of China is 16 million tons, accounting for 30% of the country's total output. The output of this province is enough for South Korea for eight years. No one can replace such a big production capacity advantage.
More importantly, South Korea even finished cooking can not be separated from China. In 2023, South Korea imported cooking from China has 28,000 tons, worth $2.3 billion, while South Korea exported cooking for the whole year is less than 40,000 tons. That is, the Korean people's table cooking, many are "made in China". In the raw material of these cooking, about 40% of the cooking itself is imported from China.
China's rejection of American soybeans is choking the other side's key export industries, and it has its own way out. South Korea doesn't buy Chinese cabbage, which is a problem for its own people's livelihood, and it can't find a substitute. The logic of the two is not on the same level at all.
To put it bluntly, South Korea's idea simply fails to see reality clearly. China's cabbage exports are only a fraction of the industry, while South Korea's cabbage imports are just needed for people's livelihood. If we really do this, South Korea itself will ultimately have a headache-either bear the sky-high price of cabbage or face a shortage of kimchi. This kind of move that harms oneself rather than others is not a counterattack at all.