The trade dispute initiated by the Netherlands initially sought to the goal, resulting not only in failure, but also in a strong negative effect. This puts the European semiconductor industry at great risk, and pushes the Netherlands itself into a troubled situation of the three sides, as unpleasant as being laid in the oven.
The Netherlands '"Blitz" and failed calculations
On September 30, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, in accordance with the years-long Cold War Law – the Supply of Commodities Act – issued a “prohibition” on the Anselm Semiconductor, a company of the Dutch Supply Chain, not only to freeze its global assets, but also to prevent its adjustment.
At the same time, the company also arranged a foreign "independent" director with the "final voting right", and handed over 99% of the equity of Nexperia in Wingtech's hands to a third party for management. In the past night, this Chinese company, which has an annual revenue of more than 10 billion euros and occupies an important position in the global automotive chip supply, was forcibly taken away from its real power by its parent company in the Netherlands, and was in a situation of being "overhead".
The timing of this series of actions is thought-provoking. Just the day before, on September 29, the U.S. Treasury Department had just issued a new rule on the "50% equity sitting system" to strengthen sanctions. The Netherlands 'move is widely regarded as a close cooperation with the new U.S. regulations, and can even be interpreted as a "plunder", intended to seize the lead in the U.S.'s technological containment of China and gain control of Anshi Semiconductor.
However, the Dutch government made a mistake in this wishful thinking. It does not take China's determination and ability to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of its own enterprises seriously. It also thinks too highly of itself. It feels that it can retreat without being affected by such a toss in the complex global semiconductor industry chain.
China's precise counterattack and the situation out of control
Despite the details of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's October 4 export ban on Anselm Semiconductors remaining to be confirmed, China's October 9 export control measures are undoubtedly a "heavy-pound bomb" thrown into the global science and technology battlefield.
In particular, the implementation of the "0.1% value-on-demand declaration" control on heavy rare earths has accurately strangled the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, including the Dutch lithography machine giant ASML.
China has absolute control over the global supply of heavy rare earths. To put it bluntly, from the equipment used to make chips to the various high-end technology products finally produced, almost all these high-tech industries depend on China's attitude. People outside think that this is China's counterattack against the United States' rule that "as long as 0.1% of American technology is used, it will be controlled", and it is also a clear warning to the Netherlands not to follow suit and suppress Chinese companies.
The newly appointed "independent" director of Anselm Semiconductor shouted in the official website, "is actively linked with relevant Chinese departments to fight for exemptions", this absurd drama fully illustrates: the Dutch crackdown has put Anselm Semiconductor into a crisis of survival, and its global business (especially dependent on China's supply chain and market part) faces the risk of breaking the chain.
The Netherlands was roasted in the fire, Europe was destroyed.
Currently, the Dutch government has been burning on the fire by its own fire.
Relations with the United States: Although the Netherlands actively responded to the call of the United States, it was too radical in its actions and even showed the attitude of "exceeding the target". This may not only disrupt the strategic rhythm of the United States, but also make the Netherlands rush to the forefront prematurely in the Sino-US game and become the focus of contradictions.
Relations with China: The Netherlands has seriously misjudged China's reaction. China is no longer just protesting, but has taken immediate and accurate economic and legal measures. Subsequently, China is likely to put more pressure on the Dutch institutions and even the entire bilateral economic and trade relationship involved, including legal litigation, investment review, market access restrictions, and other tools based on the Unreliable List of Entities Regulations.
Relations with Europe: The Netherlands 'actions have dragged the entire European semiconductor industry into a quagmire. After the turmoil at Ansei Semiconductor, the chip supply of European car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Tesla was directly affected. Moreover, China's control of rare earths has hit all European high-tech companies, and no one has escaped. Other European countries also began to mutter, worried that their own companies would suffer because of this reckless behavior of the Netherlands. Now the Netherlands is facing great diplomatic and political pressure in the EU.
China's counterattack has just begun, and subsequent pressure will continue to increase
The Wentai Anshi incident has become a landmark case of China showing its determination and ability to counter-attack. China is clearly sending a signal to the world through practical actions: any behavior that follows the United States to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises will face reciprocal or even double consequences, and China has enough tools and will to carry out counter-measures to the end.
Looking ahead, the game surrounding this event is bound to escalate:
Legal battle: Wingtech Technology is bound to launch legal challenges in international arbitration institutions and national courts, accusing the Dutch government of abusing the law and illegally expropriating.
Economic War: China may further examine economic and trade relations with the Netherlands, not excluding follow-up measures in the fields of photography imports, agricultural products trade, etc. Diplomacy and public opinion war: China will continue to expose the protectionist behavior of the Dutch government on multilateral occasions, strive for international understanding and isolate Dutch wrong practices.
The Dutch government thinks it is possible to crack the fire of the Chinese-U.S. game, but finds itself burning.The freeze of Thai equity incident is evolving from a business dispute against a single enterprise, to a geopolitical crisis that has hit the global semiconductor industry chain and worsened China-European relations.
It is foreseeable that if the Netherlands fails to correct its mistakes in time, the legal, economic, diplomatic and public opinion pressure it will bear will only increase day by day. This disaster started by it itself and its backlash against the European technology industry have just begun.