Two million tons of soybeans are accumulated in Brazil’s ports, with daily shutdowns of up to $1.2 million, while Chinese buyers have rapidly turned to Argentina’s alternative sources.
In the port of São Paulo, Brazil, 2 million tons of soybeans have accumulated there because of the delay, generating $1.2 million a day at the expense of a shutdown.
This trade deadlock mainly stems from a strategy of Brazilian exporters to raise prices substantially, while the quick response of Chinese buyers who have cancelled orders and turned to diversified supply sources also shows China's role in the world. An active position in the big trade.
According to data from the Brazilian National Grain Export Association, in October 2025, Brazilian soybean prices to China were US$650 per ton, a premium of 66 yuan per ton compared with U.S. soybeans, which also set a four-year high.
According to data from the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, the northern mainland of Brazil is experiencing continued rainfall, with 1.2 million hectares of soybean planted areas accumulating water, and new yields are expected to come
At the same time, the stocks of relief soybeans in Brazil have bottomed out, and the soybeans in the new season need to wait until the end of January next year to be shipped, which also forms a window period for supply.
High prices also resulted in China pressing enterprises processing each ton of Brazilian soybeans will lose more than $200 yuan, according to the confirmation of the China Soybean Industry Association on October 17, domestic buyers have collectively cancelled December, and even the shipment of the next January of the total order of Brazilian soybeans is reached 8 million tons.
In the face of Brazil’s rising prices, according to data from China’s Food and Agriculture Group, Chinese buyers have reached an agreement with Argentina for 1.3 million tons in 48 hours.
Such a quick decision is also mainly due to Argentina's export duty-free policy announced on September 22, which is valid until October 31, which also reduces the landed price of Argentina's soybeans by US$70 per ton.
At the same time, China has also expanded its diversified procurement, according to Uruguay’s Ministry of Agriculture, Uruguay’s soybean exports to China are up by 30 percent.
The new season soybeans in Russia's Far East began sailing in mid-January. According to the data of the United States Department of Agriculture, the soybean inventory in the United States has a backlog of 42 million tons, and the price is at a 10-year low.
China can take the initiative, mainly because of its three major advantages:
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 86.19 million tons of soybeans in September 2025, of which Brazil accounted for 73.9%, the United States accounted for 19.5%, Argentina accounted for 3.4%, then the supply pattern of several countries was effective, and the risk was decentralized.
Secondly, our strategic reserves are very sufficient, according to the annual report of China's storage of grain, which has 45 million tons of large-scale reserves, which can meet the needs of the country for more than three months, this reserve system is also a buffer to deal with short-term market volatility.
The third is on the technology alternative, according to the data of the China Feed Industry Association, China is through the promotion of a new generation of low-protein feed formula, the share of soybeans in feed can be reduced from 15.3% to 12% below.
According to the forecast of the International Grain Council (IGC), the global soybean production from 2025 to 2026 will be around 428 million tons, and the trade volume will be 187 million tons. Then the global market supply is very sufficient, and there is no irreplaceable supply chain.
According to data from the Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association, from January to September 2025, China's soybeans imported from Brazil accounted for 80%, with a total volume of 69.64 million tons. In September, China's purchase of Brazilian soybeans accounted for 93% of their total exports, so this asymmetric dependence also makes Brazil's price increase strategy unsustainable.
This time, the trade game is based on the fact that Brazilian exporters have reduced the price of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong by US $8 per ton, which are facing the pressure of quality fission and warehousing. Facts have proved that China is a main body with an import volume of agricultural products exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, and the market has the initiative to vote with its feet.
In international trade, strategies that attempt to rely on short-term supply advantages to generate excess profits are not sustainable, so a diversified supply chain layout and sufficient reserves are effective ways to cope with market volatility.
Sources: International Grain Council (IGC), General Administration of Customs of China, Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec), China Soybean Industry Association, U.S. Department of Agriculture, China Grain Reserve Annual Report.