The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has just concluded. On October 24, the fifth round of China-US economic and trade negotiations officially began in Malaysia.
Earlier on October 20, Trump openly stated during a meeting with the Australian Prime Minister: If the U.S. fails to reach a trade agreement by November 1, the U.S. will impose tariffs on Chinese goods at the current tariff rate.
The last Sino-US economic and trade consultation before November 1 was held in Malaysia this time. Trump’s remarks clearly satisfied him with China’s pressure and attempts to control the outcome of the economic and trade talks.
Trump attaches great importance to this Sino-US economic and trade consultation, Where is its importance reflected? After Malaysia's trip, how will the future direction of Sino-US economic and trade relations develop? Sino-US relations were also mentioned at the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. What is China's position on the tone of Sino-US relations?
Why is the fifth round of China-US consultations important
On the one hand, this Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultation, ahead of the APEC summit, has had a certain impact on the political atmosphere of the summit.At present, the leaders of both China and the United States have confirmed that they will attend the APEC summit, when the leaders of the two countries are likely to hold a formal meeting.
The issues of rare earth and soybeans, which are urgently concerned by the US, are the main topics of the fifth round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations. In the United States,Against the background that the United States is highly dependent on Chinese rare earths and American soybean farmers are highly dependent on the Chinese market, Whether issues such as rare earths and soybeans can be discussed is related to whether the high-tech, defense industry and agriculture of the United States can be revitalized.
For Trump himself.， Solving these challenges before the mid-term elections in 2026 can also effectively boost their support.
From China's perspectiveThe fifth round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States is also an appropriate time to discuss with the United States the exemption of a series of tariffs imposed under the pretext of fentanyl since the beginning of this year.
Therefore, If a preliminary consensus can be reached on these difficult issues through economic and trade consultations, it will also help the meeting of heads of state to produce substantial results faster.
On the other hand, the tariff exemption period set by the two sides at the end of August is only about half a month away from the fifth round of China-US economic and trade consultations.As mentioned earlier, Trump set November 1st as the deadline for the US to impose a new 100% tariff on Chinese goods a few days ago.
In other words, if Malaysia's economic and trade consultation fails to reach a conclusion, From November 1, the U.S. tariffs on China will reach 155%, and the Sino-U.S. tariff war will simultaneously escalate, which will have a huge impact on both the Sino-U.S. and the world.
In this case, The fifth round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations will have an impact on the direction of Sino-US economic and trade relations. Based on the possible results of the economic and trade consultations, several corresponding directions of Sino-US economic and trade relations can be predicted.
Possible development of trade relations.
First, a complete collapse or complete convergence could lead to two extreme ends in the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, either very good or very bad.With a very good ending, China and the United States will mutual benefit and win-win, and a very bad ending will inevitably trigger the rupture of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, thereby causing a shock to the global economy.
However, judging from the attitudes shown in recent economic and trade consultations between China and the United States, Unless one of the sides makes complete concessions or one of the sides is too tough, there is little chance of a complete collapse or complete reconciliation.
In the final analysis, the main demands of both parties involve each other's interests to a certain extent, such as China's rare earth export control is actually more to reverse the situation of low-price export and extensive development of China's rare earth resources and promote the sustainable development of the rare earth industry, while the United States is obsessed with tariff issues in order to maintain its own trade hegemony and adhere to the principle of giving priority to the United States.
In this case, it is unlikely that either side will make concessions on the basis of sacrificing interests, and it is unlikely that it will fall into a situation of complete disconnection between the great powers, so it will not be easy to tear the skin of the face.
Second, it is possible for the two sides to reach an acceptable trade agreement and temporarily maintain the stability of the Sino-US economic and trade relations.In terms of soybeans, although Brazil has replaced the United States this year as the main supplier of Chinese soybeans, Recently, however, Brazilian soybeans thought that they had pinched the lifeblood of Chinese soybeans, and actually went up in price wildly in a short period of time, which caused dissatisfaction in China.
If the United States can make appropriate concessions on tariffs and other issues during the economic and trade consultations, Increasing imports of U.S. soybeans could be a breakthrough for a trade deal.
Finally, the two sides may also issue a joint statement like previous times because they are still unable to resolve core differences, and negotiations will continue in the future. This result will have little impact on the current Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Although Trump threatened tariffs to pressure China to reach a trade agreement, But this is not the first time he has threatened tariffs on China, it is more of a means he has achieved.
After all, the escalation of the tariff war has no benefit for the U.S. side, if the economic and trade consultations did not talk about the outcome. Trump either chose to try to talk about a result at the APEC summit, or the Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations remain in the status quo.
On the occasion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and against the background of the ongoing Sino-US game, China also made a clear statement on the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.
China's position
On October 24, China's Commerce Minister Wang Wen Tao mentioned at a press conference introducing and interpreting the spirit of the 20th Plenary Session of the Party's Fourth Central Committee that China, as a responsible big country, has been opposed to "disconnecting the chain" and firmly safeguarding the security and stability of the global supply chain.
This means that in China's view, compared with confrontation, the tone of Sino-US economic and trade relations should be win-win cooperation. In the final analysis, as the two largest economies in the world, every move of China and the United States will have an impact on the world economy. Maintaining a stable economic and trade relationship between China and the United States is not only beneficial to both sides, but also contributes to the stabilization of the global economy, this statement precisely reflects China's general sense of responsibility.
In addition, Minister Wang Wentao also said, The first four rounds of Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations proved that the Sino-U.S. can fully find ways to solve each other’s concerns on the basis of mutual respect and equal consultation.
that word. It expresses China's affirmation of the success of the preliminary economic and trade consultations between China and the United States, and also demonstrates China's willingness to proactively resolve Sino-US economic and trade issues through dialogue and communication.
At the same time, mutual respect and equal consultation are also principles that China has always adhered to in Sino-US economic and trade relations. This point is also reiterated to show China's position.
Anyway, The impact of the fifth round of Sino-US economic and trade consultations on Sino-US economic and trade relations is obvious. Chinese and US leaders will also meet soon at the APEC summit. With China's attitude very clear, what kind of outcome will China-US economic and trade relations go next? It ultimately depends on whether the United States can adjust its attitude.