Australian scholar: Will China punish us, for example...?

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Overnight, Australia has become the ¡°hope of the village¡± of the American West, and the country¡¯s scholars are happy.

According to Hong Kong's "South China Morning Post" reported on October 24, after the United States and Australia signed the key mineral agreement, champagne was opened in Australia.

Two Australian scholars boasted that the agreement not only involves the rare earth supply chain, but also means the Trump administration's recognition of the US-UK-Australia trilateral security agreement (AUKUS). They declared that the development marked a "major victory" for Australia's geopolitical position and economic security.

But international industry experts generally believe that although Australia has a large number of rare earth reserves, its production infrastructure is still underdeveloped, making processing relatively expensive.

Philip Ivanov, an Australian geopolitical scientist and founder of the consulting company "Geopolitical Risk and Strategic Practice", also admits that it may take decades for the United States and Australia to compete with China, and China has the ability to take "disciplinary" measures, including a direct embargo on Australian iron ore.

On the 20th, Trump and Albanians signed a key mineral agreement in the White House.

On the 20th local time, US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese met at the White House and signed a critical minerals agreement worth US $8.5 billion. The US media said that this agreement was "aimed at confronting China". A copy of the agreement released by the two governments shows that the United States and Australia will each invest US $1 billion in mining and processing in the next six months, while setting a "price bottom line" for critical minerals.

After the agreement was signed, Trump opened champagne in advance. "In another year, we will have so many critical minerals and rare earths that you don't know what to do with them," he told reporters on the same day, adding that Australia has been paying "very, very low tariffs".

On Friday, Australian Treasury Secretary Jim Chalmers told reporters in Washington: ¡°We know that American companies are in urgent need of critical minerals, and Australia is perfectly suited to meet that demand.¡±

Several data show that China dominates rare earth mining production.

According to the South China Morning Post, Australian scholars believe that the agreement is expected to create significant economic opportunities for Australia and strengthen its strategic supply chain with key allies. In recent years, the United States and the West have been greedy for China's rare earths and are committed to establishing alternative supply chains.

Ian Hall, a professor of international relations at Griffith University in Australia, said that the Australian government was "greatly relieved" after this visit.

"The situation far exceeded their expectations," Hall said, noting that Albanese signed key mineral agreements during his trip and received Trump's positive assessment of the U.S. -Australia alliance. He said: "AUKUS currently appears safe and Australia will not face more tariffs. Of course, everything could change, but now Canberra will be very happy."

Ivanov, on the other hand, described Albani¡¯s visit to the United States as a ¡°diplomatic and political success.¡± he believes that Albani also received assurances from Trump that the United States will implement the AUKUS security agreement in addition to obtaining a key mineral deal; while the ¡°Quarter-Safe Dialogue¡± (QUAD) does not seem to make progress, it is a ¡°secondary issue.¡±

Earlier this year, the US said it would review the AUKUS deal to ensure it is consistent with the Trump administration¡¯s ¡°American priorities¡± agenda.

However, while Ivanov was happy, he still retained a trace of reason. He said that regarding AUKUS, Australia still relies on commitments from the United States and the United Kingdom to ensure its long-term viability. "Despite the success of the visit, the hard work continues, and it is well known that Trump is prone to changes in diplomatic stance and foreign relations."

Ivanov also pointed out that the U.S. -Australia key mineral agreement lacks details and that it will take years, even decades, for the two countries to compete with China. He said: "Pricing will also be a key issue, and China will not sit idly by and watch the United States and Australia undermine its current competitive market position."

Chinese flag and Australian flag data map

Ivanov also fears that China will take countermeasures.

The report mentioned that China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for nearly one-third of Australia's exports. According to Australian government data, the trade volume between the two countries rose to nearly $202 billion last year.

¡°Will China punish (Australia)? will it impose import restrictions on Australian iron ore? or will China take other ¡®asymmetric¡¯ responses and affect bilateral relations in other areas?¡±

Regarding the US-Australia critical minerals agreement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded on the 21st that the formation of the global production and supply chain is the result of market and enterprise choices. Countries with key mineral resources should play an active role in ensuring the security and stability of industrial and supply chains and ensure normal economic and trade cooperation.