Brent crude oil one-day surge by 5% broke $64, Russian oil loading in Shandong Daily Port dropped abruptly, India's largest refinery urgently stopped buying Russian oil - a US-led Russian oil "bursting war" is stirring the global energy market into a pot of trouble. The sanctions are not only aimed at Russia's "economic hanging", but also like a precision-throwing net, dragging it into the "choosing interest or choosing security" chessboard.
The combination of sanctions: not more than the closure of enterprises, even ports and tankers must be "clean"
This time, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe are far more severe than before and can be called a "full-chain strike." The United States took the lead in blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil, ordering that all transactions must be terminated before November 21, and those who delay their cooperation will be kicked out of the Western financial system. The 19th round of sanctions followed closely by the European Union was more thorough: it not only advanced the ban on the purchase of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) to 2027, but also added 117 Russian "ghost tankers" to the sanctions list in one go, and even Chinese and Indian companies that helped circumvent sanctions were also blacklisted.
The most deadly is the “secondary sanctions” knife. It is like an invisible network, as long as third-country enterprises have contact with sanctioned Russian enterprises, whether refineries, traders or banks, can be cut off from the global commodity market. Britain has opened its head, putting Shandong Yellowstone into the blacklist, leading to the collective discontinuation of Western suppliers, while the Japanese ports, Chongqing ports, China’s core ports of Russian oil, are also forced to withdraw the approval because of the “risk of sanctions”.
For Russia, this is undoubtedly a direct blow.Be aware that energy exports account for more than 40% of its fiscal revenue, and the two sanctioned companies control 60% of Russia's crude oil production.The US-European calculation is clear: either to break Russia's war "money bag", or to force India to abandon low-cost Russian oil and completely isolate Russia.
China-India differentiation: India admits cowardice and abandons Russian oil, while China strongly ensures supply
Also dependent on Russian oil, China and India have taken two completely different paths.
As the largest buyer of Russian maritime crude oil, India imports 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil per day in the first nine months, accounting for 40% of total imports, cheap Russian oil is the "capstone" of its stabilization of domestic inflation. but under the temptation of the U.S. trade agreement, India is still loose - in order to let the U.S. export tariffs from 50% to 15%, the Modi government has allowed refineries to stop buying Russian oil, the largest private refinery trust industry even directly announced "can completely stop importing".
China's situation is more complicated, but its attitude is clear. 20% of my country's imported crude oil comes from Russia. Of the approximately 2 million barrels per day, there are both pipeline supplies signed by PetroChina and Russia (800,000 barrels per day) and ESPO crude oil maritime trade that private refineries in Shandong rely on. Pipeline trade is relatively safe due to the nature of intergovernmental cooperation, but the shipping part has been hit hard: Shandong Port Group issued a notice as early as the beginning of the year prohibiting oil tankers sanctioned by the United States from berthing, and the Russian oil unloading volume at Rizhao Port dropped by nearly 30% compared with the same period last year. 30%.
Faced with pressure, China chose to "bear it hard": the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clearly criticized the United States for "long-arm jurisdiction", and Chinese companies did not reduce Russian oil purchases. After all, abandoning low-priced Russian oil means soaring industrial costs, while compromising on sanctions could lose the initiative to energy independence.
Russia seeks new buyers, China practices "internal work" to avoid risk
The United States and Europe thought that sanctions could block the way out of Russian oil, but did not think instead of accelerating the global energy pattern.
Russia has long begun to "look east". Faced with Western containment, Russia's oil exports are shifting to the Middle East and Central Asia, and at the same time expanding pipeline cooperation with China. The China-Russia crude oil pipeline double-track project is accelerating, and the oil volume in the next year is expected to increase from 15 million tons to 30 million tons, completely bypassing the restrictions of shipping sanctions. In order to get rid of US dollar settlement, Russia has also established a local currency settlement system with China and India. Currently, RMB settlement accounts for more than 45% of Russia-China oil trade.
China's "breakthrough path" is more focused on "internal and external reconstruction".In contrast, while expanding Russian oil pipeline imports, we are also decentralizing sourcing sources - in the first nine months of this year, crude oil imports from Brazil and Angola increased by 12% and 8%, respectively, reducing dependence on a single country.In contrast, private refineries in Shandong and other places have begun to adjust strategies to purchase Russian oil through third-party traders, while increasing investment in crude oil reserves, and at present, the total capacity of Shandong crude oil reserves has exceeded 30 million tons, enough to cope with short-term supply volatility.
More importantly, the advancement of financial "de-dollarization". In response to the Western financial blockade, China is expanding the application scope of the CIPS system. At present, more than 100 countries have accessed the system to handle energy trade settlement, which provides key support for circumventing US dollar sanctions.
Ultimate revelation: Energy security is never a “choice issue”, but a “obligatory lesson”
In the face of U.S. dollar hegemony and geopolitics, "energy trade without politics" is just an illusion. U.S. and European sanctions prove that whoever controls financial settlements and shipping rules can control global energy flows; and China and India's different choices indicate that relying on other people's "rules" will ultimately pay.
For China, this incident is more of a warning bell: energy security can not rely only on "buy cheap", more on "channels can be controlled, settlement independent, source diversity". from accelerating new energy replacement (this year wind and photovoltaic power generation share has reached 18%), to build an independent settlement system, to the layout of the global energy hub, every step is in the "buy insurance" for future uncertainty.
At present, international oil prices are still fluctuating due to the news of sanctions, and oil tankers at Shandong ports are still waiting for berths. However, the outcome of this game has long been doomed: the hegemony maintained by sanctions will eventually loosen, and only countries that control their own energy destiny can survive the changes. Stand firm in the middle. After all, energy has never been a weapon used to strangle opponents, but a foundation to support development-unfortunately, the United States and Europe have not yet understood this.