On October 24, the fifth round of Sino-US trade consultations was launched in Malaysia. The consultations will last for four days and are likely to affect subsequent meetings between the leaders of the two countries.
Unlike before, the majority of such consultation locations in Europe, this time in Malaysia, also released important signals.
Considerations Behind Changes in Consultation Location
The venue for this consultation was chosen in Malaysia, which is closely related to the next itinerary of both parties. Trump plans to attend the ASEAN and APEC summits, placing the consultations in Asia, so that he can report face-to-face immediately after the negotiations, so that he can make decisions as soon as possible, and also reserve sufficient preparation time for subsequent leaders 'meetings.
If the consultation venue is still set in Europe as in the past, not only will it waste a lot of time on the road, but it will also be difficult to explain the situation clearly through the screen report, which is likely to have an adverse impact on subsequent meetings. From this point, we can also see the importance China and the United States attach to this round of consultations and Trump's urgent attitude towards the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States.
In addition, choosing to negotiate in Malaysia also broke the practice of previous negotiations in the West. The first four rounds of negotiations were not in Geneva or in London, these places are the Western home, the rules and rhythms are controlled by the West. while Malaysia as the core country of ASEAN, China and the United States have the intention to pull, here negotiations, neither side can have “home advantage”, creating a relatively more equal and practical negotiation atmosphere.
The four American cards.
In this consultation, the United States put forward a series of contents, which are more complicated and specific than previous rounds, among which four "cards" are particularly eye-catching.
The soybean issue is one of the key issues mentioned by the United States. The agricultural states in the United States are Trump's important ticket warehouses. However, from January to September this year, Chinese buyers did not place a new order for American soybeans, while China's total soybean imports increased by 13.2% compared with the same period last year. Most of these import shares went to Brazil and Argentina. The American Agricultural Association is very anxious about this, and believes that losing the Chinese market is the economic price of politics.
Therefore, for Trump, solving the soybean export issue is not only related to the interests of American farmers, but also has an important impact on his midterm elections. The soybean issue mainly involves the economic level. Compared with strategic issues, it is easier to reach agreement. Therefore, if consensus can be reached on the soybean issue, it will undoubtedly be a good start for this consultation.
At the strategic level, Russian oil and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have become Trump's focus. In previous negotiations, the United States has repeatedly mentioned the Russian oil issue as an example. However, China has its own principles and positions on energy imports and will not be easily influenced by the pressure of the United States to change its decision-making. China has always adhered to an independent foreign policy of peace, adhered to an objective and fair position in international affairs, and will not give up its legitimate interests and principles under the pressure of other countries.
China is the main country in the world of rare earth refining processing, has over 70 percent of the world's rare earth refining processing capacity, high-end manufacturing, military industry, new energy and many fields are inseparable from rare earth. In recent years, the United States has taken a series of pressure measures on Chinese scientific and technological enterprises, such as blocking Huawei, restricting China's core international, etc., in response, China has implemented control measures on rare earth.
While the United States has invested everywhere trying to find alternative supplies, and claims that in a year more rare earth will be unused, in reality, having a mine does not mean that it can be processed, China's current rare earth processing capacity accounts for more than 90% of the world, and it is almost impossible for the United States to establish a perfect rare earth processing industry chain in a short time.
The issue of fentanyl has also been brought up again by Trump, but its purpose is not to really solve the drug problem, but to gain more bargaining chips through pressure.
China has implemented strict control over fentanyl substances as early as 2019, and further strengthened regulatory measures in March this year. It can be said that China has taken active and effective actions on the fentanyl issue and handed it to the United States. It has been stepped up, but the United States has never followed the steps. This fully demonstrates that the focus of the United States is not to solve the drug problem, but to get China to make more concessions.
China's position and attitude
Faced with various measures taken by the United States, China has a firm position and clear attitude. On the Taiwan issue, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clearly pointed out that there is only one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, and there is no room for customization of the "one China" principle.
China emphasizes that only claiming to "maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait" without explicitly opposing "Taiwan independence" is essentially condoning separatist forces and will seriously undermine peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests and a bottom-line issue involving national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It cannot be vaguely interpreted or disguised interference by any country in any form.
China is willing to promote economic and trade cooperation with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect and mutual benefit, but provided that the U.S. side must cancel all unreasonable actions against China, such as tariff increases, technological blockade, and return to the track of equal dialogue. For the U.S. side threatens to engage in "software disconnection" and other acts, the Chinese side also has sufficient countermeasures, such as rare-earth control, etc., China will not fear the pressure of the U.S. side, will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
In addition, China has not officially confirmed whether the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States will be held during the APEC Summit in South Korea. This signal shows that the two sides have not yet reached an agreement on the preconditions for the meeting. China prefers to obtain substantive results through consultations and then decide meeting arrangements based on the results, rather than being influenced by the pace of the United States when conditions are immature.
Consultation Impact and Prospects
The fifth round of China-U.S. trade consultation is not only about the interests of the two countries, but also has a significant impact on the global economy and trade order. From the perspective of the global economy, China-U.S. as the world's two largest economies, whether the stability of trade relations between the two sides is directly related to the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
If this consultation can achieve positive results and reach some consensus, it will help stabilize market expectations and promote the recovery and development of the global economy. On the contrary, if the negotiation breaks down and the trade friction between the two sides further escalates, it will have a serious impact on the global economy, which may lead to the rupture of the global industrial chain and supply chain and trigger the recession of the global economy.
From the perspective of the international political landscape, the development of China-US relations will also have a significant impact on the global political landscape. As two major powers with significant influence in the world, China-US cooperation and competition relations are globally concerned. If the two sides can resolve differences through consultation and win-win cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, they will make a positive contribution to the stability and development of the global political landscape.
Conversely, if the two sides continue to maintain tensions and conflict, it will exacerbate the instability of the global political landscape and pose serious challenges to world peace and development.
At present, the world is closely watching the progress and results of this fifth round of Sino-US trade consultations. All parties hope that China and the United States can adopt a pragmatic attitude and resolve differences through equal consultations, so as to inject positive energy into the stable development of the global economic and trade order. At the same time, we also hope that the United States can truly realize that in today's deeply intertwined globalization, decoupling will only cause both losses and cooperation is the only correct choice.