In the autumn of 2025, within the Kremlin, A briefing on strategic minerals is on the table.There are only seven words in the text: ¡°No longer rely on China.¡±

Nearly at the same time, Security Conference Secretary Shoigu submitted a signature article, Putting the issue of rare earth at the height of national security is not a purely economic plan.It was a competition, a counterattack, a resource competition from mines to metallurgy plants.

Rare land orders under power.

In October 2025, Secretary Shoigu of the Security Council of the Russian Federation suddenly appeared in a publicly signed article. He did not talk about national defense, did not talk about Ukraine, and did not mention Western sanctions. He was talking about rare earth metals.

This article is not in an academic journal, not in an industry forum, but directly on the mainstream Russian official media platform. The title of the article makes it clear at the beginning: Rare earth resources are a force that determines the life and death of a country.

This is the first time that Russian high-level officials openly raise the complete construction of the rare-earth industry to the level of "national sovereignty". It is clearly proposed to create a complete industrial chain of rare earth metals that does not rely on China and the United States at allFrom mining to metallurgy, from separation to material synthesis, and even to final industrial products.

There is no policy slogan rhetoric in the article, nor is there any language such as "revitalization" or "greatness". At the beginning, the global pattern is listed: China controls more than 80% of rare earth exports, while the United States tries to bypass China's barriers through industrial transfer. Russia's rare earth resources are considered "with great potential but seriously lagging behind", which is rare in diplomatic documents. This is a rare move by the Russian government to admit its shortcomings.

Shoigu¡¯s identity determined that this article was not the planning of the economic sector. As a representative of the national security level, he did not need to comment on a plan for building raw materials. Name the United States and China, name the autonomy, name the industrial chain. With such a strong statement, what is released is not opinions, but instructions.

Within less than a week, Russian media revealed that several exploration teams in the Siberian region entered rare-earth-rich areas for on-site exploration, not painting circles on the map, but equipment has entered. There are continuous trends in Krasnoyarsk Krai, Buryatia and Transbaikal regions.

At the same time, the Russian State Mineral Administration suspended the approval of rare earth transfer of three private mining companies on the grounds that it "plans to adjust the national strategic mineral plan". Anyone familiar with the process of the Russian government knows that this is not an ordinary suspension, but a signal of high-level intervention.

Soon, Russia¡¯s largest state-owned military-industrial holding company, Rostech, added a new statement in its quarterly report: ¡°The company will participate in rare metal processing projects in the Siberian region.¡± Just one word, no timetable, no budget numbers, is enough.

At almost the same time period, China announced new export restrictions on rare earth technology. The focus is on high-performance magnetic materials and green extraction processes. Russia did not respond publicly, but Western media quickly made a joint interpretation: the reason why Russia came forward by Shoigu was a "passive response" to this policy. However, no official document in Russia recognizes this cause and effect.

But this does not prevent the observer from capturing the signal.Diplomatically silent, accelerating in action. While China tightened rare earth exports, Russia began to emphasize the necessity of controlling the "smelting link".

A sovereignty reconstruction project around strategic metals was quietly launched without slogans or press conferences.

From Slogan to Work.

The first blow was a presidential interview.In February 2025, Putin rarely mentioned the word "rare earth" in an exclusive interview with foreign media. He didn't expand, only saying that Russia has 15 of the 17 kinds of rare earths, and that "we are one of the richest countries in the world". It seems ordinary, It is the first time that rare land has been mentioned as a strategic resource at the head of state level.

The second is an unpublished "investment direction" statement.In March, Kirill Dmitriev, president of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund ¨C Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), threw a statement in front of the media: ¡°We are discussing with U.S. companies the joint advancement of rare-earth projects. There's only one "we're talking".

This vague expression quickly spread throughout the market. On the one hand, it is interpreted as Russia trying to break its isolation; on the other hand, it is also seen as a signal of technical and financial cooperation. The focus of external attention is shifted from resource reserves to industry.

The third time is a signal exposure of fixed-point deployment.In August 2025, Izvistia published a report revealing that "Krasnoyarsk Krai will build a new rare metal processing industry cluster." The location is clear, the industry type is clear, However, the specific construction cycle, construction units and equipment sources have not been disclosed.

The report emphasizes that this is a ¡°unprecedented¡± project, but there are no attachments, no research links. This ¡°official media outlet¡± method is common in the Russian media system, This usually means that the project enters the administrative approval reversal time.

The fourth is a passive exposure to technical negotiations.On September 10, the Eurasian Times revealed that Russia is establishing high-level contacts with China on rare earth extraction and separation technology, according to the article, Russia hopes to introduce China¡¯s green immersion and clean separation technology, but faces export restrictions. There is no positive response from China yet, but many Russian industry reporters have confirmed that there is indeed such cooperation intention in China.

This shows, At the same time as Russia is shouting the slogan "independent industrial chain", it is also quietly looking for technological breakthroughs.

The fifth and heaviest hammer was dropped by Shoigu himself.In October, Shoigu wrote clearly in an article: Russia should not hand over "high-tech metallurgy" to any foreign country. It is clearly directed.

He directly put forward a concept in the text: the construction of a complete metallurgy to the material industry chain, which must be completed on Russian soil. It must be ¡°locally closed.¡±

He did not give any sources of funding, nor did he mention a timetable, but expressed it very directly: "This is a question of whether Russia can continue to exist as a sovereign state."It's not an economic problem, it's not an industrial problem, it's a national problem.

Lots of minerals and more bottles.

Russia listed in its public report that its proven rare earth reserves are approximately 28 million tons. This figure is higher than international standards. But it does have mineral source points for 15 rare earths.

Mining alone is useless, no one opens it. Russia still lacks systematic rare earth mining enterprises. Among all relevant companies, only one or two projects are close to commercial production. Preliminary survey of the Lesnoye Kuangqu has just been completed, and a laboratory has just been established in the Nariyan-Marr area. Most of the reserves are asleep underground, with little extracting capacity.

Equipment is even more shortcomings. From blasting to separation, from crushing to extraction, every ring lacks local equipment. Even the most basic ionic rare earth leaching tanks rely heavily on imports. Technical data shows that most smelters in Russia are still at the level of 20 years ago, Almost all key links are dated.

Shoigu's article hiddenly mentions that Russia can play a partner in "technical collaboration."Outsiders generally believe that this implies a willingness to cooperate with China. However, export restrictions on rare earth technology have been introduced in mid-2023, especially for high-precision separation and green extraction technologies.

Even if the green light is turned on, the big question is where the money comes from.The Putin administration proposed a "70 billion rubles" calibre. Are the funds allocated? have they been invoiced? who will operate? not at all.

Infrastructure is a hole. The Siberian region is constantly extremely cold, a large number of regions lack electricity¡£ When you build a factory, you must have highway access, substations and fresh water treatment systems. So far, the Russian government has not announced a complete supporting project construction plan, nor has it made it clear which state-owned enterprise will take the lead.

Coupled with the financial pressure of the war-the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, defense spending increases more than expected every year. In addition, domestic pensions and social subsidies have just been raised, No one dares to tell the truth about how much money the Ministry of Finance can allocate to support a technologically complex and cyclically long industrial chain construction.

The Hidden Race Behind Barriers

It is not that the Russian government is unaware of the problem. Shoygu's article used the word "self-reliance". Not encouragement, but helplessness.

Outside of China and the United States, Russia wants to come by itself. But from the resource level to the industrial level, every step taken by Russia is colliding with reality. Equipment relies on the outside, technology is difficult to break through, the market structure is highly concentrated, and the financing environment continues to deteriorate-nothing can be solved by a single order.

Shoygu's article put forward one sentence: Russia wants to become a supplier of rare earths to the "global south".It means that Russia does not only want to be ¡°self-sufficient¡±, but also to export and break the monopoly pattern.

But the problem is that countries in the "Global South" have not formed rare earth consumption power. Russia's smelting technology is not good enough, and its pricing power cannot be controlled. If you want to export, who will pick it up?

Although China is the largest producer and largest exporter, it is the only country with full-chain capabilities. For Russia, on the one hand, it wants to borrow China's experience, and on the other hand, it wants to establish a parallel system on the same track. Cooperation is cooperation in a game. It is not reciprocity and it is not a trusting relationship.

However, the western market is still afraid to invest heavily in Russian mineral projects. Russia has shown goodwill during negotiations with the United States and is willing to jointly develop projects, but there has been no announcement of implementation at the funding, company, and operational levels.

Shoigu has written rare land into national security issues, not for domestic production capacity, but to leave Russia a foundation in multilateral relations.

But is this card empty? or is it a structural chart that looks like a whistle? that question no one can answer now.

Reference source:

"Shoigu: Russia should establish its own full-process production system for rare earth metals"-ITAR, October 24, 2025

¡°Siberia will invest more than 700 billion rubles to build a cluster of key advanced metal processing industries¡± ¡ª International Telecommunications Agency, 17 October 2025

Siberia to Build an Unprecedented Rare-Earth Metal Extraction Industry Cluster ¡ª ¡ª Newsweek August 28, 2025